New Dad Jimmie Johnson will likely shave part of the 188-point deficit from Kevin Harvick's lead in the Sprint Cup standings, as Double-J attempts a three-peat at the Brickyard 400 as NASCAR travels to the historic 2.5-mile oval that is Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday, July 25 at 1:15 p.m.

Those who are inclined to follow trends should note that in the past four years Johnson has kissed the bricks in three of the last four races. In 2007, the year he did not win, Johnson finished 39th. Either Johnson wins the Brickyard 400 or loses big-time. You can risk 100 to earn 350 if you think Johnson tastes the fired clay for a third consecutive Brickyard 400. Finally, keep in mind that only two drivers have won this race in five years; the other driver is Tony Stewart (2005, '07).   

Who will win the Brickyard 400?

When it comes to handicapping NASCAR, sometimes it’s more about who won't win than who will. Each week it’s more or less a given that you can find about 75 percent of the drivers entered in each race and come up with solid intelligence why each driver won't win. Here are a few drivers that I believe have no chance of winning on Sunday.

The bad news for J-Nation is that No. 88 isn't great at IMS. In 10 starts Dale Jr. has an average finish of 21.7 and in the past five years has notched three DNFs at the Brickyard. Earnhardt, Jr. is set by the bookmakers at Sportsbook.com at +3000 to win on Sunday, but the faithful should look at this as bait. Junior's 23rd place finish two weeks ago at Chicagoland broke a streak of two consecutive top-10 finishes, and he has had three top-ten finishes in four races (at Infineon Junior finished 11th).  

At the Roulette table even the 00 hits once in a while, and that is what happened to David Reutimann who led the last 32 laps at Chicagoland. Reutimann even finished eighth last year at the Brickyard 400. However, after winning only his second Sprint Cup race of his career, he'll likely be looking to cut into the 96-points that separate him from 12th place in the Chase. The croupier at the table will tell you that numbers do hit twice, but this is NASCAR and not roulette, which makes the +3000 a sucker's bet.

Denny Hamlin looked poised to take over the lead in the standings after winning Pocono and Michigan, but has reverted back to his early season, pre-surgery form. Hamlin has not won at the Brickyard and brings in one top-five finish in 2008. Last year Hamlin finished 34th, and if his recent spate of double-digit finishes continues (barring Chicagoland), it’s likely that a +800 ticket will bring you only misery.

Much to my five-year-old's chagrin, Kyle Busch has gone from "Rowdy" to "Doormouse" faster than you can say M&M's. Kyle has been plain awful in the past five weeks as he has not cracked the top 10 since finishing second on June 6. Like Hamlin, Busch has only one top-five finish at the Brickyard and that was a fourth in 2007. He finished 38th last year and 15th in 2008. Avoid playing the +800 if only for the fact Kyle drives a Toyota.

Now that I've looked at a few drivers who won't win, everything points to one driver who will win. But then, that makes me nervous, whenever the public loves something so much as to call it a ‘lock,’ you have to re-evaluate. Consider that when Johnson does not win he finishes in double-digits. And as hard as it is to steer away from the safe pick, something tells me that like bookends at the Brickyard it will be Jeff Gordon.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, (No. 24) +800 

Brickyard 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Crew Chief Alan Gustafson has had the week off to figure out why the No. 5 team has had a hard time adjusting to the spoiler. However, Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports has dominated the Brickyard and Mark Martin did notch five wins last year, so the winless streak has been perplexing Martin. Martin won the pole last year and finished second to Johnson. I have little doubt that team HMS will put at least two drives in the top-five and see no reason why the 'old man.' isn't one of them.

Pick! Mark Martin, (No. 5), +3000

Brickyard 400 - Top Three Finish

Perhaps the worst kept secret coming out of Indianapolis (other than LeBron was never going to the Pacers) is how blazingly fast Juan Pablo Montoya has been at Indianapolis tire-tests earlier this year. JPM had the race won last year but he got penalized for speeding on pit-row. Montoya is currently mired in 21st place in the standings and needs to make up almost 250 points to make the Chase. A great way to start that journey is to win on Sunday. You'll make +800 if you back JPM to win so why not also hedge with a Top-Three play just in case Montoya suffers another costly brain-fart. 

Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, No. 42, +250

Brickyard 400 - 
Odds to finish the Top-Three 
Indianapolis Motor Speedway - 1:15 p.m. July 25, 2010

AJ Allmendinger  +2200    
Bobby Labonte  +3000    
Brad Keselowski  +2400     
Carl Edwards  +600    
Clint Bowyer  +600    
Dale Earnhardt Jr  +900    
David Ragan  +3000    
David Reutimann  +900    
Denny Hamlin  +240    
Elliott Sadler  +3000    
Greg Biffle  +750    
Jamie McMurray  +900    
Jeff Burton  +450    
Jeff Gordon  +240    
Jimmie Johnson  even    
Joey Logano  +1000    
Juan Pablo Montoya  +240    
Kasey Kahne  +600    
Kevin Harvick  +350    
Kurt Busch  +350    
Kyle Busch  +240    
Marcos Ambrose  +3000    
Mark Martin  +900    
Martin Truex Jr  +1000    
Matt Kenseth  +750     
Paul Menard  +3000    
Reed Sorenson  +3000    
Regan Smith  +3000    
Ryan Newman  +1200    
Sam Hornish Jr  +3000      
Scott Speed  +3000    
Tony Stewart  +300     
Travis Kvapil  +3000    
zx Field (Any Other Driver)  +3000   

Brickyard 400 - 
Odds to Win 
Indianapolis Motor Speedway - 1:15 p.m. July 25, 2010

AJ Allmendinger  +7500     
Bobby Labonte  +10000     
Brad Keselowski  +8000     
Carl Edwards  +2000     
Clint Bowyer  +2000     
Dale Earnhardt Jr  +3000     
David Ragan  +10000     
David Reutimann  +3000     
Denny Hamlin  +800     
Elliott Sadler  +10000     
Greg Biffle  +2500     
Jamie McMurray  +3000     
Jeff Burton  +1500     
Jeff Gordon  +800     
Jimmie Johnson  +350     
Joey Logano  +3500     
Juan Pablo Montoya  +800     
Kasey Kahne  +2000     
Kevin Harvick  +1200     
Kurt Busch  +1200     
Kyle Busch  +800     
Marcos Ambrose  +10000     
Mark Martin  +3000     
Martin Truex Jr  +3500     
Matt Kenseth  +2500     
Paul Menard  +10000     
Reed Sorenson  +10000     
Regan Smith  +10000     
Ryan Newman  +4000     
Sam Hornish Jr  +10000     
Scott Speed  +10000    
Tony Stewart  +1000     
Travis Kvapil  +10000     
zx Field (Any Other Driver)  +1000