It only took Denny Hamlin's surgically repaired knee three weeks to heal enough for Hamlin to notch his first win of the season at last week's Samsung 500. This week Carl Edwards will try to avoid going airborne again in the last lap of the Aaron's 499 as NASCAR travels to historic Talladega, Alabama for the Aaron's 499 on Sunday, April 25 at 1:20 p.m. 

Gamblers interested in investing in the outcome of the Aaron's 499 should wait until the starting grid has been set since 72 percent, or 58 of 81 races, have been won from the Top 10 spots while a whopping 58 percent, 47 of 81 races, have been won from the Top 5 spot and in 13 instances Talladega has been won from the pole while 31 races have been won from the front row. The last pole-sitter to win at Talladega was Jeff Gordon in 2007.

Who will win the Aaron's 499?

With 25 percent of the 2010 NASCAR season in the books Jimmie Johnson has managed to build up a 109-point lead over his nearest challenger, Matt Kenseth. When Johnson is not winning races he is finishing well as he did last week with his second-place finish at the Samsung 500 in Texas. Johnson has not won at Talladega since 2006, but has done well over the course of his last eight starts with five Top-10 finishes; three of which were Top-5 finishes. While Johnson is always a threat to win anytime he gets behind the wheel of the No. 48 Chevy, last year he finished this race 30th. To be successful at 'Dega drivers have to be able avoid the big one, use a bump-draft strategy and have the ability to handle the double-file restarts - all of which Johnson is an expert at doing, so you have to give a hard look at Johnson in this race as well. However, for my purposes I am not backing NASCAR's most prolific driver on Sunday.

In truth no NASCAR team has been better at Talladega than Hendrick Motorsports, who lead all teams with 10 victories in Alabama. However, Richard Childress Racing could tie that number with a win on Sunday but they'll be going against Jeff Gordon, the most successful active driver at Talladega, who is also in the HMS stable. Gordon has won at 'Dega six times and has 13 Top-5 finishes and 16 Top-10 finishes in 34 starts! However, since sweeping both races in 2007 Gordon has not done well at 'Dega -- this is one of the main reasons why I am not backing the No. 24 car to win on Sunday. The trend in Gordon's last four races is that he has finished 20th, 37th, 38th, and 19th – not a trend I feel comfortable risking my hard-waged V-chips.

Kenseth is second place in the NCSC standings but I don't see him making a lot of noise on Sunday as he has finished out of the Top 10 in his last six starts at 'Dega. In 14 starts at Talladega Greg Biffle has not been money either, with one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes -although both Top-10 finishes came last year. 

My pick to win the Samsung 500 last week was Kyle Busch, who ended up finishing in third (and then an hour later got in his Nationwide ride and won the race!), but that was good enough to jump six spots up the leader board to sixth place and 228-points behind Johnson. Busch won his only Talladega race in April 2008 when he dominated NASCAR for the early part of the 2008 season. While Busch had a rocky start this season in his last four races he seems to be improving with every race. At the Food City 500 in March Busch managed a ninth, then in April he finished eighth at the Subway Fresh Fit 600 and then finished third last week. If Kyle can avoid the big one I see the same result at Talladega as in 2008

Pick! Kyle Busch, (No.18), +1000

Aaron's 499 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In six starts at Talladega open-wheel convert Juan Pablo Montoya as notched only one Top-5 finish. That was the spring race in 2008 when JPM finished second. Last spring JPM was the poles-sitter but could only manage to finish 20th after running a disappointing race.  Other than that the closest JPM has come to finishing in the Top 10 at Talladega was last November at the Amp Energy 500 when he finished 19th.  Currently, JPM is not having the greatest year for Earnhardt-Ganassi Racing and lost three spots last week to fall to No. 24 on the leaderboard and an almost insurmountable 459 points from first place. He is 152 points from making the Chase. JPM needs to start finishing races in the Top 10 if he hopes to move up the standings and make the Chase again this year. JPM has a good car for the Talladega and a good teammate in Jamie MacMurray (+2000) to help push him to the front of the pack and perhaps win, the question is will MacMurray feel like working with the oft-volatile Montoya? Keep in mind the defending champion of the Aaron's 499 is Brad Keselowski (+4000), who defied the odds last year, winning in remarkable fashion as the year's longest long shot to win a NASCAR race.  

Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, (No. 42), +2500

Aaron's 499 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3

The roan beard is looking awful these days but you get the sense from Junior Nation that something big is about to happen for Hendrick Motorsports' No. 88 driver. Earnhardt finished the Samsung 500 in eighth place and moved up three spots in the standings to No. 7. This is the highest Junior has been in the rankings after eight races in years. The boost to his confidence has been immeasurable and Junior is finally starting to look like what his fans expect – a contender for the Chase. Granted, only eight races have been run so far so it might be a bit early to give Junior a spot in the Chase, but early indications show that there is a new and improved Junior driving that No. 88 car. This weekend provides Earnhardt with a deluxe opportunity to move up higher in the standings at arguably one of his best tracks. Earnhardt is second among all active drivers with five wins at the super-speedway. The only driver with more wins is the restrictor plate king, Jeff Gordon with six wins. Junior won four consecutive races at Talladega from 2001-2003. Junior's best finish this year was second at Daytona and I wouldn't be surprised to see Junior breaking his 65-race winless streak at best and finishing in the Top 3 at worst.

Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr., (No. 88), +450

Aaron's 499 - Odds to Finish in the Top 3
April 25, 2010 – Talladega Superspeedway


Tony Stewart +300
Kevin Harvick +300
Kyle Busch +300
Jeff Gordon +350
Clint Bowyer +350
Jimmie Johnson +350
Dale Earnhardt Jr +450
Kurt Busch +450
Denny Hamlin +450
Jeff Burton +450
Carl Edwards +550
Jamie McMurray +600
Matt Kenseth +600
Kasey Kahne +600
Ryan Newman +750
Juan Pablo Montoya +750
David Ragan +750
Mark Martin +750
Brian Vickers +900
Greg Biffle +900
Martin Truex Jr +900
David Reutimann +900
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +900
Joey Logano +1000
Brad Keselowski +1200
Sam Hornish Jr +1500
Paul Menard +1500
AJ Allmendinger +1500
Elliott Sadler +1500
Marcos Ambrose +1500
Scott Speed +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Bobby Labonte +3000
Regan Smith +3000

Odds to Win Aaron's 499*
April 25, 2010 – Talladega Superspeedway
                       
Tony Stewart +1000
Kevin Harvick +1000
Kyle Busch +1000
Jeff Gordon +1200
Clint Bowyer +1200
Jimmie Johnson +1200
Jeff Burton +1500
Denny Hamlin +1500
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1500
Kurt Busch +1500
Carl Edwards +1800
Kasey Kahne +2000
Jamie McMurray +2000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500
Mark Martin +2500
David Ragan +2500
Ryan Newman +2500
Martin Truex Jr +3000
Greg Biffle +3000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
David Reutimann +3000
Brian Vickers +3000
Joey Logano +3500
Brad Keselowski +4000
AJ Allmendinger +5000
Elliott Sadler +5000
Sam Hornish Jr +5000
Marcos Ambrose +5000
Paul Menard +5000
Scott Speed +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Bobby Labonte +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com