To the surprise of everyone, especially its own management, the Toronto Blue Jays have been the surprise story of baseball this summer. At 59-52 Toronto is looking like anything but the rebuilding team they were supposed to be after trading away Roy Halladay.

Sunday it was Brandon Morrow lighting the baseball world on fire with a one-hit, 17-strikeout performance against the Tampa Bay Rays. Toronto has won five of six and those six games were against the two teams who have led the AL East for the better part of the season, Tampa Bay and the New York Yankees.

Toronto is a team that has lived by the long ball. The Blue Jays hit only .251 as a team (fourth-worst in the AL), but their league-leading 175 home runs blow every other team out of the water. On Saturday they hit eight home runs.

Playing in the AL East the Blue Jays are not a legitimate playoff contender, but they have been one of the most exciting teams to watch this year. The Red Sox have been pretty much the opposite. At 64-49 they are in a much better footing in the AL playoff race, but they have been a major disappointment this season as they sit six games out of first place in the division.

The two contrasting teams and situations meet Tuesday night at 7:07 p.m. ET in Toronto.

MLB Predictions: Pitching matchup

Daisuke Matsuzaka (8-3, 3.96 ERA) vs. Ricky Romero (9-7, 3.37 ERA)
Every baseball game presents a number of different matchups to analyze, but in this rare case, it may be enough to simply stop at the pitching matchup. Ricky Romero is yet another quality young arm Toronto has on its staff, and most know that Daisuke Matsuzaka is a dominant pitcher when he is on his game.

What makes this pitching matchup so important is how the Blue Jays bring out the best in Matsuzaka and the Red Sox bring out the worst in Romero.

The Red Sox are 8-0 in the last eight games that Matsuzaka has started against the Blue Jays. That includes two wins this season when he went a combined 13 innings, allowing three earned runs with 14 strikeouts. One of those games was at Toronto where Matsuzaka is 4-0 in his last four starts.

It’s a completely different story for Romero when he faces Boston. Toronto is 1-5 in his last six starts against the Red Sox and 0-4 at home with Romero on the mound against Boston. This season Romero was tagged for five earned runs in 2 1/3 innings during a 14-3 loss to Boston.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Odds
The home-standing Blue Jays are a -130 favorite with Boston priced at +110. The total has been set at 8. Odds are courtesy of Sportsbook.com.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Trends
Boston is 3-7 in their last 10 vs. the AL East
Toronto is 11-1 in their last 12 vs. the AL East
Toronto is 5-1 in their last 6 games (all against teams with a winning record)
Toronto is 24-9 in their last 33 home games vs. a right-handed starter
Boston is 8-0 in Matsuzaka last 8 starts vs. Toronto (4-0 at Toronto)

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Betting Picks and Predictions
Toronto has all the momentum in the world after a pair of electrifying performances this weekend. They also have an extra day of rest while Boston was busy playing a matinee Monday morning. Still, the domination Boston has in the pitching matchup is too much to ignore. The Red Sox have Romero’s number and Matsuzaka has owned Toronto. On top of that Toronto lives by the long ball. The only team that comes close to their 175 home runs is their opponent Tuesday night. Boston has hit 147 round trippers this season. This is as good of a value as you are going to find with a playoff-caliber team playing a non-playoff caliber team. The pick is Boston +110.

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