The Miami Dolphins (4-3 overall and 5-2 ATS) head to Maryland this Sunday as five-point road underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens (5-2 overall and 3-3-1 ATS) with the total at 40.5 points. We will offer some free NFL picks and Sunday predictions at the end of this article.

The Dolphins come into this game undefeated on the road in the 2010 season, having gone 4-0 away so far. In the last few years the Dolphins have been road warriors as they are 16-5 ATS in their past 21 road encounters and 13-3 ATS when playing as a road underdog.

Much of the Dolphins improvement this season has come from the maturation process of third-year quarterback Chad Henne, who finished the 2009 season with a 75.2 quarterback rating and has lifted that rating up more than seven points to his current rating of 82.5 for the 2010 season. Henne’s play has helped take the Dolphins from the 17th-ranked offense overall in the NFL a year ago to now having the 13th-best offense this season.

The biggest improvement with the Miami Dolphins this year lies in the play of their defense. In their four road games this year Miami has held their opponents to just 13.5 points per game while allowing 20 or fewer points in all of those contests. Overall the Dolphins have shown huge improvements, going from a defense that finished 22nd in the NFL last season to one that is currently ranked in the Top 10 in the NFL in fewest yards allowed per game, allowing 40 yards per game less then just a season ago.

The Baltimore Ravens come into this game off of their bye week. Baltimore is 7-2 ATS the last nine years in their first game back following their bye. The Ravens are undefeated at home this season as they come into this game 3-0 and a very strong 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games as a home favorite. The Ravens have struggled against the better teams in the league as they are just 2-5-1 ATS the last eight times they have faced teams with winning records.

Baltimore is a much different team offensively at home this season. The Ravens come into this game averaging more than 30 points per contest at home as compared to just 14 points per game they average on the road this year. Much of the offensive problems with the Ravens this season is with their usually strong running game, which ranked fourth in the league last year at 4.7 yards per carry while rushing for nearly 140 yards per game. Things are quite different this year as the Ravens rank just 26th in the NFL at 3.6 yards per rush and only 115 yards per game.

The Ravens defense still remains a terrorizing group as they currently rank 10th overall in the NFL in fewest yards allowed at 314 yards per game, which is up a bit from last seasons third-ranked defense in the NFL, which allowed just 301 yards a game.

With Miami unbeaten on the road and Baltimore without a loss at home this year, something must give in this game. Let’s call it a Baltimore outright win with Miami covering the spread. I am looking for the Ravens to win in a close game, let’s call it 21-20. Take Miami plus the points in this one.

Jason Sharpe has been excellent for his expert football picks at Doc’s Sports, and he has shown a profit in eight of nine weeks for his NFL handicapping and college football picks. He sees some weak NFL point spreads on the board this week and is very excited to extend his 27-11 current NFL run – his card is highlighted by a 7-Unit NFC Game of the Year and he is 4-0 this season for picks rated 6-Units or higher. Call us toll-free at 1-866-238-6696 to find out about a free one-week football package from Sharpe or any Advisory Board handicapper of your choice (new clients only).