College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/24/2010
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Alabama moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Vanderbilt the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the college football odds.
And over the past two years this version of college football power rankings has been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. In 2008 they came back and went 81-63-3 in the week that they were in the Ferringo 15. In 2009 the teams that were in the F-15 only managed to win 53 percent of their games that Saturday. But, all in all, these college football power rankings have been exactly what any good gambler hopes to be: profitable in the long term.
It was an excellent week for the Ferringo 15. Our teams went 8-5-1 ATS overall and our top teams absolutely dominated. Teams No. 1 through No. 8 went 7-0-1 ATS while covering in all manner of big games. That is now four of five winning weeks with this crop of teams. The F-15 is also a decent 56-44 over the last seven weeks for an even 56 percent winning ratio. Also, for the year that makes the F-15 teams a respectable 69-57 (54.8 percent) the week that they have been listed in these power rankings.
Remember: I’m not listing the 15 teams that I think will cover in a given week. This is just a list of 15 teams that I think present the best blend of immediate and long-term earning potential against the books, while also giving credit to teams for recent, past performances. So without further ado, here is my Ferringo 15 (all records are ATS against the closing line):
1. Central Florida (9-2) – Last week was a great bounce back for this team after its first conference loss of the season. They have to avoid looking past Memphis this week as 25-point favorites. UCF is in the conference title game next week, but they want to keep building momentum. UCF is 13-3 ATS on the road and they have no mercy toward weaklings, going 10-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.
2. Ohio State (8-2-1) – The Buckeyes hit for a ‘push’ and an outright win last week, and once again Jim Tressel came through in a big game. The Buckeyes are an amazing 13-3 ATS at home and they have won six straight in the Michigan rivalry game. Ohio State is also 5-1 ATS in those last six outright winners.
3. Oklahoma State (9-2) – Four straight covers for the Cowboys and now they have a chance to drive a stake through their in-state rivals. They have outgained their last four opponents by an average of nearly 240 yards per game. Something tells me the Cowboys aren’t going to get shut out this year against OU (they lost 27-0 last year).
4. Northern Illinois (8-2-1) – That is now an 8-0-1 ATS run by the top team in the MAC. The Huskies are 4-0-1 ATS on the road, and I doubt they will have much sympathy this week for Eastern Michigan. Northern Illinois has covered four straight at EMU and the visitor is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings.
5. Hawaii (9-2) – This group hasn’t had any trouble on the road against the bottom feeders of the WAC. They demolished Fresno State and Utah State by a combined score of 94-34. The good news is that we’re still getting credit for Hawaii’s tough travel even though it hasn’t impacted them. That is building in line value.
6. Boise State (8-2) – At the start of the season I told myself that, no matter what, I need to bet on Nevada this week against Boise State. I think that a fellow Top 20 WAC team could knock the Broncos off this week. However, after watching Boise State come through in these big games time and time again it’s definitely tough to go against them. Boise has won the last 10 meetings against Nevada and is 7-2 ATS in the last nine. The Broncos are on a 33-16-2 ATS rush and they are 19-7 ATS away from home.
7. Illinois (8-3) – The Illini have a week off before a random end-of-the-year trip to Fresno State. This team is already bowl eligible, but they clearly want to keep the good times rolling and try to secure a better payday.
8. North Carolina State (9-2) – Just a huge game for the Wolfpack this weekend as they head to Maryland. A win here sends them to the ACC Championship Game against Virginia Tech and puts them on the doorstep of a BCS bowl. N.C. State is 5-2 ATS at Maryland and they are on a killer 21-8 ATS run in conference play.
9. Arkansas (8-3) – Here is one of two new additions to our rankings this week. Arkansas is also another perfect example of what is a pretty obvious trend pertaining to the most profitable teams in the country: quality quarterback play. There is no mistake that the biggest moneymakers this year almost all have gotten excellent play out of veteran quarterbacks. And Ryan Mallett has been as good as anyone in the nation.
10. Virginia Tech (8-3) – The Hokies have beaten Virginia six straight times and they are 5-1 ATS against their in-state “rivals”. The Hokies are on a 13-3 ATS run and the favorite is 7-1 ATS in the last eight in the series with Virginia.
11. Arizona State (6-2-2) – This is a new addition to this week’s F-15 and it is also just the second team on this list (Illinois as the other) that doesn’t have a winning record. The Sun Devils are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine home games but they are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against UCLA.
12. Tulsa (7-4) – It’s a win-and-in situation for the Golden Hurricane. If they can take care of business against Southern Miss they will advance to the CUSA title game. Tulsa is 14-6 ATS at home and last week’s ATS loss was their first in two months. They have revenge against a suddenly red hot Southern Miss team, but it’s still tough to lay points with pass-wacky Tulsa.
13. Oregon (6-3) – I feel like the Cam Newton controversy has bumped this team to the top billing in college football right now. But as I look at this team I see a National Champion. The underdog is 4-1 in the Arizona series and the last three meetings have been decided by an average of just eight points.
14. San Diego State (7-4) – Last week’s collapse is an absolute crippler to a team that had been having such a positive season. I thought they were the clear No. 3 team in the Mountain West, but now they are just No. 5 in the league. That’s a huge disappointment and I don’t know if this team can bounce back this week. Especially as a mammoth 24-point favorite against hapless UNLV.
15. Syracuse (7-4) – This week is SU’s last chance to get a home win. I just have a hard time believing that they are going to go winless in the Carrier Dome this year. Especially given the fact that a lot of the buzz and excitement has returned to The Loud House as the locals have started to really get behind Doug Marrone and his charges.
Others Receiving Votes: Ohio (8-3)
Robert Ferringo is a writer and a professional sports handicapper for Doc’s Sports. He has banked $6,000 in profit for his clients after four of five winning football weeks and is rolling out more predictions this week. This week’s card will include another exciting Game of the Year. He has brought in over $15,000 in overall profit in all sports over the last two-plus months. You can sign up for his college football and NFL picks and get more information here.
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