Denny Hamlin, who earned his fourth win of the season last week at Pocono, thanked his crew by wrecking the No. 11 car in the post-race burnout. This weekend Hamlin might get a chance to perfect his signature wall-slapping maneuver as the Sprint Cup heads out for the Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 at 1:13 p.m. on Sunday, June 13 at Michigan International Speedway.

Who will win the Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400?

Last week’s race was clearly Hamlin’s to lose. While at times Jimmie Johnson and Jamie MacMurray put pressure on the No.11 car, Hamlin’s biggest challenge came from Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch. This week Busch comes into MIS with a decided disadvantage against Hamlin: Busch is getting worse at MIS while Hamlin is getting better.

Consider that Busch has finished out of the Top 10 in his last five starts at MIS and has struggled at the wide-open two-mile oval in his other starts. Busch is set at +500 but I think that is way too generous. Given Busch’s history at the track he should be double that, despite the fact he has moved up to second in the Sprint Cup standings and is only -19 points behind first place. Meanwhile, Hamlin has leapfrogged two spots in the standings and is 176-points behind the leader. Hamlin finished third in the June race at MIS and 10th in August. Like Kyle Busch, he has never won at MIS and the way Hamlin’s been racing (other than burn-outs) he has a good shot of winning again on Sunday. 

One driver I am laying off this Sunday is Hendrick Motorsports’ Jeff Gordon despite the fact he finished second twice last year at MIS. Since the inception of full-time CoT racing Gordon has had an average start of 15.2 and an even worse average finish of 16.0 that is belied by his 17 top five finishes in 24 starts. Getting involved in last week’s huge wreck at the end of the race didn’t help matters either. I advise ignoring the +700 number they hung around Gordon’s neck because it was hung there for suckers.

Here’s a news flash: Jimmie Johnson has more DNFs this season (4) than he has wins (3), yet he is still sixth in the Sprint Cup standings thanks to finishing fifth last week at Pocono. Perhaps the mini-slump is over for Johnson or is he due for another DNF? In Johnson’s last five races he has no wins, one top five and two Top 10 finishes compared to the first 10 races of the season when Johnson notched three wins, six top fives and eight Top 10 finishes.

Johnson is set as the +350 favorite to win the HGSCD 400. However, coming to Michigan won’t make things any easier for Johnson, whose best finish was third in August 2008. Moreover, Johnson is currently riding a 0-16 streak at MIS. Keep in mind that the last time I wrote a factoid about Johnson not winning at a track was earlier this year at Bristol and he ended up winning at the world’s fastest half-mile. Caveat emptor.   

In his past four CoT races at MIS Johnson has been the beneficiary of an average starting position of 3.8 and has the most laps led of all active drivers with 356. But he sports an average finish of 19.5! This doesn’t tell the real story which is that if he didn’t keep running out of gas (like he did in both races last year) Johnson would have already added another track to his collection of ones at which he has won a Sprint Cup race. What are the odds Johnson runs out of gas three times in a row?

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No 48, +350

Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special 

Rousch Fenway Racing’s Carl Edwards moved up two spots from 11th to ninth in the Sprint Cup standings and now sits 334-points behind leader Kevin Harvick. There is no better opportunity for Edwards to win his first race since 2008 this week at MIS. Edwards, a two-time winner at Michigan, and leads all active drivers with a 6.1 average finish in 11 starts.  BUT, when you factor in just CoT races, Edwards is even better at MIS. In the four CoT races at Michigan Edwards leads all drivers with an average finish of 4.0 against an average starting position of 23.0 and has led 107 laps total. Keep in mind that Edwards’ Ford was manufactured just down the road (and owner Jack Roush grew up down that same road). MIS was the site of Edwards’ first Cup start and would be a great place to break Ford’s winless streak this season. Speaking of winless streaks, Edwards broke a 52-race losing streak at MIS in 2007. Edwards finished fourth at MIS twice last and has strung together three straight top-fives so it is not inconceivable that Edwards wins another one at MIS and I have a hunch that will be sooner rather than later. It has been too long since we’ve seen one of the best winning dismounts in stock-car history.    
 
Pick! Carl Edwards, (No.99), +2000

Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 - Finish in the Top-Three

Matt Kenseth lost a spot in the Sprint Cup standings to Pocono winner Denny Hamlin. Kenseth sits in fourth place and is 170 points behind Harvick, he has two wins at MIS (6/02, 8/06) and nine top fives. Three of those top fives were from August 2007-2008. Last year, Kenseth finished 20th and 14th respectively and looks to regain the form that has given him the second best average finish (9.9) in 21 races at MIS of all active drivers. Looking at just CoT statistics at MIS, Kenseth has an average finish of 10.5, which is good enough for fourth behind Brian Vickers (5.2), Tony Stewart (10.2), and Dale Earnhardt, Jr. (10.2). Ford usually represents well at MIS, while RFR drivers are also eager to give Michigan-based Rousch Industries a win. Backing Kenseth to finish in the Top-three is basically just a hedge in case he doesn’t win on Sunday.   

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No.17, +600

Odds to finish Top-Three - Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
Michigan International Speedway – June 13, 2010 1:13 p.m.

Jimmie Johnson  +100
Kyle Busch +150
Denny Hamlin +200
Jeff Gordon +200
Kurt Busch +350
Jeff Burton +450
Carl Edwards +600
Greg Biffle +600
Tony Stewart +600
Clint Bowyer +600
Mark Martin +600
Kevin Harvick +600
Matt Kenseth +600
Joey Logano +750
Kasey Kahne +750
Juan Pablo Montoya +750
Jamie McMurray +900
Dale Earnhardt Jr +1200
Ryan Newman +1200
Martin Truex Jr +1200
David Reutimann +1500
Brad Keselowski +1800
Marcos Ambrose +3000
Sam Hornish Jr +3000
Elliott Sadler +3000
Regan Smith +3000
Casey Mears +3000
Scott Speed +3000
David Gilliland +3000
Travis Kvapil +3000
Field (Any Other Driver) +3000
AJ Allmendinger +3000
David Ragan +3000
Paul Menard +3000
           
Odds to win - Helluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400
Michigan International Speedway – June 13, 2010 1:13 p.m.

Jimmie Johnson +350
Kyle Busch +500
Jeff Gordon +700
Denny Hamlin +700
Kurt Busch +1200
Jeff Burton +1500
Carl Edwards +2000
Matt Kenseth +2000
Kevin Harvick +2000
Greg Biffle +2000
Clint Bowyer +2000
Tony Stewart +2000
Mark Martin +2000
Joey Logano +2500
Kasey Kahne +2500
Juan Pablo Montoya +2500   
Jamie McMurray +3000
Martin Truex Jr +4000
Ryan Newman +4000
Dale Earnhardt Jr +4000
David Reutimann +5000
Brad Keselowski +6000
AJ Allmendinger +10000
Marcos Ambrose +10000
zx Field (Any Other Driver) +10000
Elliott Sadler +10000
Regan Smith +10000
Paul Menard +10000
Scott Speed +10000
David Gilliland +10000
Travis Kvapil +10000
David Ragan +10000
Casey Mears +10000
Sam Hornish Jr +10000