2010 World Cup Futures Betting
Trevor Whenham - 06/19/2009
The 2010 World Cup, taking place in South Africa, is now less than a year away from starting. We'll obviously spend a whole lot of time closer to the start looking at the event from every possible angle, but it's never too early to take a first look. Here is where some of the top teams are at in their preparations (futures odds are from 5Dimes):
Brazil (+510) - The co-favorites are mostly living up to expectations. They are leading the qualifying standings in South America, and they are playing well so far at the Confederations Cup. You could argue that they aren't playing as well as they can be, but it's hard to be too concerned with that - they are playing as well as they need to to qualify, and there is little incentive at this point to do more than that.
Spain (+510) - The Spaniards are cruising. They are cruising in their qualifying group, and are easily going to secure a position in the World Cup. They haven't been tested yet at the Confederations Cup, but they have looked very good doing what they have done. I'm not necessarily convinced that Spain deserves to be favored in South Africa next year, but they are looking good for now.
Argentina (+550) - The Argentinians will have to play much better than they have been in qualifying to justify this price. They have lost their last three road qualifying games, and are barely holding onto the fourth and final guaranteed qualifying spot. I'm not that worried that they will ultimately miss out, but they are badly wasting their talent at this point.
England (+850) - England has a whole lot of international embarrassment over the last decade or so to overcome, and so far they are looking determined to do so. They are tied with the Dutch for the most points in European qualifying to date so far, and they are certain to make the World Cup field. Some of their key pieces are getting older, but as always they have the talent to be dangerous. This is more than a fair price in my mind.
Italy (+1200) - It might be time to panic. The Italians are barely managing to stay ahead of Ireland in Group 8 qualifying, and they have yet to really flex their muscles. As if their play in Europe wasn't bad enough, they somehow managed to lose to Egypt at the Confederations Cup. They are the defending champs so they get the benefit of the doubt, but this does not look like a World Cup-ready squad.
Germany (+1250) - They got an unfortunate qualifying draw, so they are locked in a dogfight with Russia. Even if they don't get a guaranteed spot I am confident they would get in with a playoff win. It's hard to know just yet what this team has to offer, and they don't seem to offer much value at this price, but they are always a dangerous team when the stakes are high.
Netherlands (+1400) - The Dutch landed by far the easiest qualifying group in Europe, and they have made the most of it. I'm perhaps a little concerned that they won't be as battle-tested as a lot of teams before South Africa, but they are going to be as good as they usually are, and that always makes them a factor.
France (+2200) - This team redefines underachievement. They have about as much talent as all but the top two or three teams in the world, but you would never guess it by watching them. They are far behind Serbia in qualifying and are almost certainly going to have to win their way in in a two-game playoff. This lackadaisical play coupled with their lousy showing at Euro 2008 makes it very hard to trust this team at this price.
Ivory Coast (+3900) - The class of Africa is having a surprisingly tough time in qualifying - they are currently tied with Burkina Faso in group 5. Those two teams meet next, though, and I expect Ivory Coast to pull ahead. They are the strongest, most consistent team in the continent, and they will have a world of support at all of their games, but it would take a real miracle for them to win it all. As much as I will be cheering for this team, I wouldn't touch this price.
Portugal (+4400) - What the heck is going on here? They have played great in recent major international tournaments, and they have the world player of the year, yet there is a very good chance that they won't make the World Cup field. They are in third in their group and are four points out of second. They would need to finish second to even have a shot at earning their way in in a playoff. This is shaping up as a disaster, and they are obviously a terrible bet at this point.
Australia (+13000) - They moved from the Oceania group to the Asian one, and it didn't set them back. The have already secured an automatic bid, and will be looking to build on the progress they made in 2006. The fact that they are the top-rated team in both their new group and their old one and yet they are still at this price tells you everything you need to know about their chances.