UFC 98 Predictions
by Trevor Whenham - 05/21/2009

It's time for another UFC event - UFC 98 takes place May 23 in the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas. The story of this event isn't who is fighting, but rather who isn't. A superstitious person would assume that this card was cursed. The main event was supposed to be Brock Lesnar and Frank Mir, but that was delayed when Mir injured his knee. Quinton Jackson was tabbed instead to fight Rashad Evans. That was derailed when Jackson required arthroscopic surgery on his jaw. That's just the beginning of the long list of injuries. Josh Koscheck is out. James Irvin injured his knee. Yushin Okami did, too. Houston Alexander broke his hand. Like I said - cursed.
Despite all the problems, the card that we are left with isn't bad. It's not as publicly appealing as some UFC cards have been, and I expected viewership to be down as a result. Still, it provides plenty of intrigue and, hopefully, betting opportunities. Here's a look, with odds from Bodog:
UFC 98 Predictions
Main Event - Lyoto Machida (-210) vs. Rashad Evans (+170) - This is a serious letdown compared to a unification match for the heavyweight title. It's not often you see the titleholder as the solid underdog. Machida is almost impossible to hit. He has a style that is completely his own, and he can avoid damage better than anyone in the sport. Depending on your viewpoint that is either incredibly impressive or terribly boring. Like Machida, Evans prefers to counterpunch than to be the aggressor. He's got a bigger punch than Machida when it lands, though. Because of the styles this is likely to be a methodical, strategic event. If Evans can land his punches then it will be over early. I don't expect him to be able to, though. Machida should be able to avoid the punches, get in a few of his own, and score some points. Machida has one huge advantage here - kicks. It's not even close on that front. Neither guy has lost before, but someone has to give here. I expect that we'll also see a change in champion.
Pick: Lyoto Machida.
Matt Hughes (-265) vs. Matt Serra (+205) - Ultimate fighting is at its best when the two fighters hate each other. That is certainly the case here. This fight was supposed to happen in December 2007, but an injury to Serra derailed that. Since then both guys have been crushed by Georges St. Pierre and have both seen their reputations plummet. Serra has hinted that retirement is near for him, and I fear that he has spent too much time eyeing that exit to be ready for this fight. Hughes is a methodical wrestler that should be too much for Serra to handle at this point. I'd love to take a shot at the underdog price, but I can't justify it here.
Pick: Matt Hughes.
Sean Sherk (-350) vs. Frank Edgar (+275) - Sherk was the UFC Lightweight Champion before he pulled a Manny Ramirez - tested positive for PEDs and claimed it was a mistake. He's trying to get back on top again and a win here could set him up against the winner of the BJ Penn-Kenny Florian fight at UFC 101. Edgar is incredibly tough, but Sherk is a little bit stronger and faster, and he has proven throughout his career that he is tough to beat. This one is going to last a long time because both guys have great stamina. The longer it lasts, the bigger the edge that Sherk has.
Pick: Sean Sherk.
Xavier Foupa-Pokam (-200) vs. Drew McFedries (+160) - Foupa-Pokam is coming back off of short rest, having lost a decision to Dennis Kang a month ago at UFC 97. That could be a concern, except he is facing an opponent that isn't nearly as good as Dennis Kang, the one he lost to. McFedries has the ability to score the big knockout, but he goes for it at the expense of everything else - defense, strategy, and so on. Foupa-Pokam is a muay thai specialist, and he can do a lot to make McFedries' life miserable.
Pick: Xavier Foupa-Pokam.
Dan Miller (-155) vs. Chael Sonnen (-125) - Dan Miller is looking to get himself a middleweight title shot, and at 11-1 he's not that far off of one. Sonnen is a replacement fighter, and he's not that well matched up. He's more than competent, but he can be slow at times, and he doesn't always seem focused on his task. Miller should be able to easily exploit those shortcomings, and that makes him a bargain at this price.
Pick: Dan Miller.
Brock Larson (-325) vs. Chris Wilson (+250) - Wilson doesn't have as many wins as he should at this point in his career, but he has never shied away from facing good competition. He faces another good one here. Larson is frighteningly aggressive, and he can take a punch as well as anyone. I'd like to pull for Wilson, but I'm not sure that he has what it takes to get to Larson. Larson stands a better shot at earning the KO, and if it goes the distance he's more likely to have scored the points. The chalk-fest continues.
Pick: Brock Larson.
Pat Barry (-500) vs. Tim Hague (+300) - With prices like this all you can do is assess whether they are reasonable. In this case it is. Barry is a young heavyweight on the rise. He's smaller than some heavyweights, but he more than makes up for it in ability - the guy can really kick. Barry has a real future.
Pick: Pat Barry.
Phillipe Nover (-500) vs. Kyle Bradley (+300) - Again, does this price make sense? Not this time. Nover is a solid fighter off to a good start to his career, but his hype has set him up with unreasonable expectations here. Bradley has more experience and he is a much better boxer. Nover deserves to be favored, but not nearly by this much. That means that there is real value on Bradley.
Pick: Kyle Bradley.
Andre Gusmao (-150) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (+120) - Gusmao seemed to be a man on the rise last year before a bad loss at UFC 87. Soszynski is a submission specialist that hasn't lost in five. This fight is pretty close, but I like the underdog here - especially at his price.
Pick: Krzysztof Soszynski.
Yoshiyuki Yoshida (-500) vs. Brandon Wolff (+350) - Both guys are coming off bad losses last time out. I expect that trend to continue for Wolff. Yoshida is faster and stronger, and he'll be looking to end this one early via submission.
Pick: Yoshiyuki Yoshida.