NBA Betting: Thursday Playoffs Preview
by Matt Severance - 04/23/2009
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls, Game 3 (TNT)
By now you've probably heard that the Boston Celtics have lost yet another big man. That would be forward Leon Powe, who was the first guy off the Boston bench, behind Glen Davis - Davis is starting at power forward with Kevin Garnett likely done for the playoffs.
Powe tore his ACL in that thrilling Game 2 win against Chicago and is definitely done for the playoffs. His stats weren't that great - averaging five points and 4.5 rebounds in 12 minutes in this series' first two games - but the Celtics simply have a paucity of big men. Behind Kendrick Perkins and Davis now is Mikki Moore, and that's about it. The only thing going for Boston is that Chicago doesn't really have an offensive big man to draw fouls, but if either Davis or Perkins does draw a few early ones that could be big trouble going forward.
For sure the pressure is on Boston's Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and Rajon Rondo even more in Game 3 with the bench that much shorter. Allen blew up for 28 second-half points Monday, including the game-winning three-pointer, and Rondo was terrific again.
But Pierce has been just OK this series, scoring 41 total points but hitting 40 percent from the field. That probably won't cut it in Chicago, where the Bulls won seven of their final eight games (4-4 ATS) and beat Boston once this season. Thus Chicago is a 2.5-point favorite on BetED for Game 3.
The series line has moved a ton, with Chicago now down to +170. The Bulls also have leapfrogged to the fourth-best odds to win the East on BetED. The Bulls bandwagon is filling up fast, so get those bets down now if you like Chicago.
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks, Game 3 (NBA TV)
It's hard to know what to make of this Western quarterfinal. For example, San Antonio star Tony Parker was held fairly well in check for the second half of Game 1 thanks to some stellar Dallas defense, and the Mavs won the game. But there Parker was in Game 2 pouring in 38 points on 16-for-22 shooting as the Spurs won in a rout.
For sure the Spurs are doing a number on Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki, who has some of the best playoff career averages in NBA history. But he is just 10-for-29 from the field in this series and averaging 16.5 points per game - and that makes him Dallas' leading scorer so far. This is the same Dirk who finished the season with 25 consecutive games scoring at least 20 points; he hasn't hit 20 yet in the playoffs.
The big storyline heading into Game 3, with Dallas a five-point favorite on BetED, was what Mavericks center Erick Dampier said following Game 2 about the Mavs stopping Parker: "Every time he drives the lane, we have to put him on his back," Dampier told The Dallas Morning News. "The first foul has to tell him he's in for a long night. My first foul Thursday night is going to put him on his back. I guarantee it."
The NBA reviewed that quote and might fine Dampier (the league hadn't as of this writing), but needless to say any hard foul by Dampier on Parker is going to result in Dampier's ejection, which is not what Dallas needs.
A huge positive for San Antonio heading into Game 3 was that Tim Duncan played just 28 minutes in Game 2 and will have had two days off, so Duncan anticipates his aching knees will be feeling pretty well. However, the Mavs are 8-1 ATS in their past nine games following two days off.
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz, Game 3 (TNT)
Well, at least the Jazz didn't lose to the Lakers by 13 in Game 2. Utah, which had lost to L.A. by 13 in the previous three defeats this year (including Game 1), instead lost by 10 on Tuesday night. Unfortunately, if you use that incremental improvement, the Jazz won't win until Game 6 - and this series is not going that long.
As good as the Jazz are at home, they have opened as two-point dogs on BetED for tonight's Game 3 and are just 2-8 ATS in their past 10 there. But perhaps they can replicate what they did last year - that is, losing the first two games in the West semis against Los Angeles (both in double digits) before winning two in a row in Salt Lake City.
And Utah did play better in Game 2, trimming a Laker lead to three points with just over three minutes to go before the Lakers put it away - and the Lakers aren't going to shoot 60 percent from the field again as they did in Game 2.
The Lakers did lose their one visit to Salt Lake City this season (by four) and have dropped seven of their past 10 regular-season visits there. But after dropping those first two at Utah in last year's playoffs, L.A. closed Utah out with a road win in Game 6.
The Lakers are 37-1 all-time when winning Games 1 and 2 of a seven-game series.