After a week off for Easter, Sprint Cup action resumes under the lights at 8 p.m. this Saturday at Phoenix International Raceway. Hendrick Motorsports’ Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson are No. 1 and No.2 respectively in the standings, but Johnson will try for his fourth consecutive win at PIR.

The Subway Fresh Fit 500 is one of three races on the circuit in which the 500 refers to kilometers rather than miles. This equates to 312 laps around the 1-mile tri-oval. PIR is a technical track that features very sharp Turns 1 and 2 banked at 11 degrees and Turns 3 and 4 banked at nine degrees. This puts a premium on the driver’s ability rather than having the perfect car and set-up. Each corner is different and the driver that figure out how the track will change as the temperatures cool will be the driver in the best position to win.

There is something about PIR that breeds season sweeps. In 2000-01 Jeff Burton won both races, in 2003-04 it was Dale Earnhardt, Jr, in 2005 it was Kurt Busch, in 2006 it was Kevin Harvick and in 2008 it was Johnson. Last year the No. 48 Chevrolet was unbeatable at Phoenix as he used the spring race to launch his assault on Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards apparent stranglehold on the Sprint Cup lead and then used the win in the fall race to obliterate any hopes of Carl Edwards winning his first Sprint Cup title.

Johnson has been amazing at PIR and will likely contend for his fourth consecutive win at PIR. Including both races last year he has six top-fives and nine top-ten finishes and will likely earn a lot more before his career is done. After his second place at Texas last week Johnson moved into second place on the Sprint Cup leader board behind teammate Jeff Gordon. Johnson is the odds-on favorite to win and will most likely garner the most win market action due to his obvious strengths at this venue.

In my 2009 Sprint Cup preview I said Jeff Gordon was back and that he’d be a likely contender to prevent JJ from winning his fourth consecutive Sprint Cup title. So far it looks like I was correct. One big difference for Jeff Gordon this year from last year is that he has banished his wife and toddler from the RV. As anyone with a newborn can attest to, you don’t get much sleep the during the first year and both his wife and kid were in the trailer with him all last year making for one very tired No. 24 driver. This year he sent them packing to the nearest luxury hotel and look at the improvement! In fact, Jeff Gordon might want to consider having his family stay at home for his races as they did for the Texas race, which he won. 

Jeff Gordon’s only victory at PIR came in 2007, but he has eight top-five and 15 top-ten finishes in 20 starts. Last year he finished the spring race 13th and the fall race 41st. But I am throwing last year’s results out of the window. This was Jeff’s first taste of victory in 47 races. Keep in mind that Gordon has won consecutive victories 22 times in his career. Make that 23.

Pick: Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (6/1)

2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500– Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

When Smoke signed the deal to co-own his own NASCAR team nobody expected Stewart to do as well as he has this quickly. Thanks to another top-five finish at Texas (he finished fourth) Stewart is fifth in the points standings, 191 points behind Jeff Gordon, and has Stewart-Haas Racing in the hunt in his first year as an owner. Granted, Stewart-Haas gets their cars and motors from Hendrick Motorsports, but last year Haas CNC racing also got their cars and motors from HMS and were unable to come close to winning a race.  In fact the very first time Stewart raced at PIR in 1999 he won. In fourteen starts at PIR Stewart has one win, six top-fives and eight top-ten finishes. Stewart finished 14th last spring and 22nd in the fall race. But that was last year. If the first seven races of the year are any indication it looks like Stewart has outrun his streak of bad luck that dogged him all last year. If Johnson or Gordon don’t win on Saturday night I would not be surprised to see Smoke break his 13 race winless streak. 

Pick: Tony Stewart, No. 14, (15/1)

2009 Subway Fresh Fit 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish

Another driver who seems to have turned the corner from a dismal 2008 is Penske Championship Racing’s Kurt Busch, who will also be celebrating his 300th Sprint Cup race of his career. The driver of the “Blue Deuce” has seen his fortunes dramatically turn for the better this season with a newly energized team. He has already picked up one win at the Kobalt Tools 500 in March and has notched 2 top-fives and four top-tens in seven races. Last fall Busch contended against Johnson for the win but ultimately had to settle for second as No. 48 proved unstoppable. Kurt Busch swept both races in 2005. He has three top-fives and six top-ten finishes in twelve races at PIR. Last week at Texas Kurt Busch managed to finish eighth good enough to put him in third place in the Sprint Cup standings. Kurt Busch might not win on Saturday night, but expect him to do well on the 1-mile track under the lights.

Pick: Kurt Busch, No. 2, (7/2)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Subway Fresh Fit 500
8 p.m., April 18, Phoenix International Raceway 

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 30/1 
Brian Vickers 10/1 
Carl Edwards 23/10 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 5/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1 
David Ragan 12/1 
David Reutimann 15/1 
David Stremme 30/1 
Denny Hamlin 23/10 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 9/2 
Jamie McMurray 9/1 
Jeff Burton 9/1 
Jeff Gordon 9/5 
Jimmie Johnson 6/5 
Joey Logano 30/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1 
Kasey Kahne 10/1 
Kevin Harvick 5/1 
Kurt Busch 7/2 
Kyle Busch 7/4 
Mark Martin 9/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 20/1 
Matt Kenseth 9/2 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Paul Menard 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 18/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Scott Speed 30/1 
Tony Stewart 9/2 
Field (Any Other Driver) 25/1

Odds to win Subway Fresh Fit 500
8 p.m., April 18, Phoenix International Raceway 

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby Labonte 100/1 
Brian Vickers 35/1 
Carl Edwards 8/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 18/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1 
David Ragan 40/1 
David Reutimann 50/1 
David Stremme 100/1 
Denny Hamlin 8/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 15/1 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 30/1 
Jeff Gordon 6/1 
Jimmie Johnson 7/2 
Joey Logano 100/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1 
Kasey Kahne 35/1 
Kevin Harvick 18/1 
Kurt Busch 12/1 
Kyle Busch 6/1 
Mark Martin 15/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 70/1 
Matt Kenseth 14/1  
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Paul Menard 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 60/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Scott Speed 100/1 
Tony Stewart 15/1