NASCAR: Southern 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 05/08/2009
Cale Yarborough will pace the field to the green flag as the iconic Southern 500 returns after four years to South Carolina as NASCAR motors down to Darlington Raceway to celebrate 60 years of racing at the historic Lady in Black this Saturday night at 7:45, televised by FOX.
Last week Kyle Busch won his 49th career race on Friday, turned 24 on Saturday and won his 50th career race on Sunday at 'Dega for his third win of the season. However, Jeff Gordon took back the points lead from Kurt Busch as the No. 24 car finished eighth place at on Sunday, good enough for a 10-point lead in the Sprint Cup standings over brother Kurt Busch. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson tumbled four spots in the standings to sixth place following a disastrous Crown Royal 400 at Richmond.
Who will win the Southern 500?
In 2005 and 2006 Greg Biffle earned back-to-back victories at Darlington and led about half of the total laps in his two victories. Last year it looked like more of the same as Greg Biffle started Darlington from the Pole and led for 95 laps before a faulty engine doomed his chances and Biffle finished the race dead last at 43rd. This year Greg Biffle hopes that the No. 16 car doesn't run into the same difficulty.
In the first practice session on Friday Biffle's No. 16 Chevy proved to be the fastest, but in the final practice it was Mark Martin leading all cars with a lap of 175.103, proving the Hendrick Motorsports Driver might be old, but he isn't slow. Darlington really favors the speed but, of course, practice laps aren't the real thing and they can only give you so much information.
One thing you can take from the practice sessions is that they'll give an indication how the car will race on Saturday night. However, remember that day practice and night racing are two different things and a cool track will have a much different effect on the performance on the cars than a hot South Carolina afternoon will have.
It has been a mercurial season for Biffle as he has not been able to be as consistent as he was last year. He did well in Las Vegas and moved all the way up to fourth in the Sprint Cup standings. But since then he has had three straight lousy races and has tumbled in the Sprint Cup standings to 23rd. Following those three Biffle reeled off three consecutive top-seven finishes and has moved back into the Chase at No. 11 in the Sprint Cup standings and 248 points behind Gordon. At Darlington in his career Biffle has two wins, two top-five finishes and three top-10s. Given the way Biffle has dramatically improved over the past three races and his penchant for racing well at Darlington he is my pick to win on Saturday night.
Pick! Greg Biffle, No.16, (3/1)
2009 Southern 500- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Dominating NASCAR driver news are the usual suspects: Gordon, Busch, Johnson, Earnhardt, Jr., Edwards and Stewart. One driver that has remained almost invisible, despite his success and consistency after 10 races in 2009, is Richard Childress Racing's Jeff Burton. Burton is currently in seventh place in the Sprint Cup standings and last week notched a third a Talladega. Burton is also a two-time winner at Darlington sweeping both races in 1999.
Since 2005, though, there has been only one race per year at Darlington. In 26 starts at Darlington Burton has eight top-fives (I just mentioned two of them) and 15 top-10 finishes, but has finished 10th the past two years. While Burton has struggled at Darlington in the past two years I think Talladega showed that his crew chief Scott Miller and team tweaked the No. 31 Caterpiller Chevrolet so that it was one of the fastest cars on the track. If they can duplicate that type of speed at Darlington I see Burton not only contending but winning outright. And at 30/1 that is some fine change if he is the first past the waving checkers.
Pick! Jeff Burton, No. 31, (30/1)
2009 Southern 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Jeff Gordon leads all active drivers with seven wins at Darlington Raceway, five of which have come at the Southern 500. His five wins ties Cale Yarborough's record for the most wins at the Southern 500. In 28 starts at Darlington Gordon has 16 top-fives and 19 top-10 finishes at the Lady in Black. The last time Gordon won at Darlington was two years ago and last year he placed third; and 2008 was a poor year for Gordon. If he wins on Saturday night it will be Gordon's 83rd Sprint Cup victory. This would tie him with Yarborough and put him in sixth for all-time career Sprint Cup wins, just behind Bobby Allison and Darrell Waltrip, who both have 84 career wins. For these reasons I like Gordon to at the very least come in the top three on Saturday night.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24. (2/1)
Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Southern 500
May 9, 7:45 p.m. - Darlington Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 10/1
Carl Edwards 2/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11/2
David Ragan 12/1
David Reutimann 12/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 3/1
Jamie McMurray 12/1
Jeff Burton 10/1
Jeff Gordon 2/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/4
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick15/2
Kurt Busch 3/1
Kyle Busch 5/4
Mark Martin9/2
Martin Truex Jr. 15/2
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson30/1
Ryan Newman 9/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 3/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Southern 500
May 9, 7:45 p.m. - Darlington Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 35/1
Carl Edwards 7/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 40/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1
David Ragan 40/1
David Reutimann 40/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 10/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 10/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 6/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Kurt Busch 10/1
Kyle Busch 9/2
Mark Martin 15/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog