Matt Kenseth, the first driver to win the first two races of the season since Jeff Gordon did in 1997, goes into the Shelby 427 on March 1 at 4:45 p.m. in great shape to win the first three races, a feat that has never been done in NASCAR history. However, looking to prevent the three-peat is Jimmie Johnson who has won three out of the last four races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

Sprint Cup racing continues in the desert this week as drivers will try their luck, and hardly tested engineering, on the fast-track that is LVMS. LVMS is essentially a 1.5-mile D-oval "flat track" that was renovated in 2006-07 to provide 20-degree banks in the turns and nine degrees on the straight-aways. This track is made for serious speed as cars will top 190 in the stretch and won't have to sacrifice too much speed on the turns. The track is multi-grooved which should allow for some good side-by-side racing, but generally doesn't.

Gamblers should note that in the last six races at LVMS the pole-sitter has never won, but in three of the last five races has finished in the top 10. Carl Edwards won this race last year after starting in the front row from outside the pole.

Who will win the Shelby 427?

Last year the question on everyone's minds before the UAW 400 was could Johnson win his fourth straight in Las Vegas? Johnson began the race from the 33rd spot and finished an unspectacular 28th place. This year the question is will Matt Kenseth make it three for three this year? Carl Edwards managed to win at California and then at LVMS, perhaps Matt Kenseth will do so as well?

While the odds may be stacked against him winning the first three races of the season, Kenseth has done really well in Las Vegas and could very well be the driver to beat on Sunday. Kenseth's early season results are indicative of his skill as a driver as well as his skill for avoiding accidents. Kenseth led four times for 70 laps last year, succumbing to eventual race winner Edwards and finishing the race 20th place.

Kenseth won at LVMS in 2003 and 2004 before the track was renovated and then finished no worse than eighth during the next four years. Kenseth now sports a gaudy two wins and two top fives with five top 10s for an average finish of nine in nine races.

This week I like the hometown kid Kyle Busch. Last week Busch was coming off an emotional record-setting Saturday when he won both the truck race and the Nationwide race on the same day; a feat that one driver had never done.

Busch won the pole last year but finished a disappointing 11th-place after leading the race three times for 56 laps. In the three previous races at LVMS Busch has finished second, third and ninth. I think Busch has looked impressive in his races this year and this might be over-shadowed by a lot of other factors such as Kenseth winning Daytona and California. This is exactly what makes Busch so dangerous in this spot. He finished in third place behind Kenseth and Gordon at California and I think Busch will improve on that on his "hometrack."

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, 11/2

2009 Shelby 427 - Long Odds Special

Kasey Kahne, in five races at LMS, has an average start position of 10.2, which shows that Kahne is good at qualifying at LMS. He has already won two poles and even set the qualifying record on March 9, 2007, with a speed of 184.856 mph (29.212 sec.). Despite Kahne's 17.00 average finishes the No. 9 car has two top-five and three top-10s in the desert. Kahne appears to like the spring race the best. In 2004 he started from the pole, led the race for 43 laps and finished second. The year Kahne set the qualifying record he led for 13 laps but was taken out of it in an accident on the 251st lap and finished the race with a 35 place. Kahne started the Auto Club 500 in 22nd place and finished in 12th place, picking up 127 points for the effort. While Kahne has had fabulous starting position in the spring races in Las Vegas this has not translated into wins. Kahne finished sixth last year and I think he'll do better this year. If you are looking for a good long odds driver who will provide you with a competitive chance of return on your sports investment the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge is a great play.

Pick! Kasey Kahne, No. 9, 40/1

2009 Shelby 427 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin is coming off a strong sixth-place finish at California last week. Hamlin has only raced at LVMS three times and all three times has finished within the top-10, even taking third place in the March 2007. His average finish of 7.33 belies the fact that his average starting position hovers around 20th on the grid; an average improvement of 13 spots in each of the three races in the desert. I see Hamlin building on his excellent finish in California and continuing his success in the desert. Hamlin at 6/1 odds makes the price right for me to gamble on the No. 11 to finish within the top three spots in Las Vegas this Sunday.

Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, 6/1

2009 Shelby 427 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Sunday, March 1st 4:30 p.m. Las Vegas Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Aric Almirola 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 6/1
Carl Edwards 3/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 18/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 30/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 2/1
Jamie McMurray 11/2
Jeff Burton 12/1
Jeff Gordon 2/1
Jimmie Johnson 3/2
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick 9/1
Kurt Busch 6/1
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 11/2
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Matt Kenseth 2/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 15/2
Travis Kvapil 30/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1

2009 Shelby 427 - Odds to Win
Sunday, March 1st 4:30 p.m. Las Vegas Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 60/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 18/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 100/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Jamie McMurray 18/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 40/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Kyle Busch 11/2
Mark Martin 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 60/1
Matt Kenseth 7/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Stewart 25/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog