The fact that Mark Martin will start his 1,000th Sprint Cup Series race under the lights Saturday night at historic Bristol Motor Speedway for the Sharpie 500 won't keep the "bubble boys", Brian Vickers, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch, from ruining Martin's dream season by taking the 12th and final spot in the Chase away from the "Old Man."

A poor pit/fuel strategy last week at Michigan put Martin, who leads all NASCAR drivers with four wins -- which means 40 bonus points at the points reset if he makes the Chase -- this season, in this position in the first place. Martin led four times for 26 laps and could have won the race if he had not run out of gas on the last lap. This Saturday night I am sure Crew Chief Alan Gustafson won't make the same mistake.

Qualifiers have rained out in two of the last seven races at Bristol, but keep in mind that if that happens this week then Tony Stewart will take the pole since he is the points leader. However, only one driver has won the Sharpie 500 in the last seven years as the pole-sitter, and that was Carl Edwards. 

Who will win the 2009 Sharpie 500?

Kurt Busch is set at 10/1 to win the Sharpie 500 and is currently in sixth place in the NSCS standings. Busch is in good position to make the Chase with three races to go. However, last week at Michigan Busch was running in the Top 10 at lap 120 and wrecked the "Blue Deuce." This week at Bristol I expect Busch to do enough not to wreck, but I don't think he will take too many chances to actually win the race. With 166 points separating sixth-12th one more wreck and a few bad finishes could jeopardize Busch's chances to make the Chase. Even though Busch has won at Bristol five times I see him playing it safe for the next three weeks and he is not worth your sports investment V-chip.

His brother, Kyle, is in a completely different position having fallen two spots last week in the NSCS standing to 15th place. Kyle is currently 70 points out of the Chase but should be inspired as he is one of the best active drivers at BMS.  Kyle started 19th on the grid in the spring race at Bristol but shot to the front and led 378 of the 500 laps en route to his second win at Bristol.

How good is Busch at Bristol? In seven starts he has six Top-10 finishes, two wins and four Top-5s. He picks up an average of 13.4 spots during the races and has an average finish of 5.71. Busch started the 2009 season white-hot, winning three of the first 10 races, but since then Busch can't buy a win. And if you missed Wednesday night's truck race at Bristol all you need to know is that Kyle won it. Busch has a lot to race for on Saturday night. He almost has to win to make the Chase, which is why I like Kyle to sweep the season at Bristol and maybe start another hot-streak.

Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (6/1)

2009 Sharpie 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In 19 career starts at Bristol Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has one win, seven Top-5 and 10 Top-10 finishes. Junior is coming off a third-place finish at Michigan last week, his best finish since a Top-5 at 'Dega. He has really struggled during this 2009 season with NASCAR big-boy Hendrick Motorsports, and now he's basically racing for pride. But if you watched the last 39 laps of the Carfax 400 last week you saw shades of greatness as he wove his way through the field. His Top-3 finish cashed my 11/1 ticket, but I would have rather had him win since he was as also my 35/1 Lucky Dog. I like Junior again this week. It seems like with the pressure to make the Chase as well as expectations being way down, Junior is primed to close out the 2009 season on a high note. His withering comments about the CoT this week came across a bit like a sore loser and now if he can string together consecutive weeks of solid finishes his comments might resonate more.

Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No.88, (20/1)

2009 Sharpie 500 - Odds for Top-3 Finish

Carl Edwards is set at 15/2 to win on Saturday night as the two-time defending champion at Bristol and has dominated the concrete track at Bristol. Edwards is currently in fourth place in the NSCS standings and looks to be a lock to make the Chase again this year -- although if he doesn't win he'll be without the benefit of the 60 bonus points he earned last year. In 10 starts at Bristol Edwards has three Top-5s and four Top-10 finishes. Gamblers should note that Edwards does far better racing at Bristol when racing at night rather than during the day. In the past two years at the spring race in Bristol, which is run in the day, Edwards finished 15th in 2008 and 16th in 2009.  Ordinarily I would recommend a play on Edwards to win in this spot, but considering that Edwards is fourth in the NSCS standings and has said that his first goal is to finish the race rather than win it, I see him being competitive throughout the race but not taking the chances he'll need to win. This is why I have Edwards finishing in the Top 3 rather than winning the race outright.

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (9/4)

Sharpie 500 - Odds* to Finish in the Top 3
Sat. Aug. 22, 6:30 p.m. Bristol Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 37/1 
Brad Keselowski 30/1 
Brian Vickers 10/1 
Carl Edwards 9/4 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 6/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1 
David Ragan 22/1 
David Reutimann 22/1 
David Stremme 30/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/5 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 5/1 
Jamie McMurray 9/1 
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 12/5 
Jimmie Johnson 12/5 
Joey Logano 12/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/2 
Kasey Kahne 4/1 
Kevin Harvick 6/1 
Kurt Busch 3/1 
Kyle Busch 9/5 
Mark Martin 11/4 
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1 
Matt Kenseth 13/2 
Michael Waltrip 37/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 15/2 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Scott Speed 30/1 
Tony Stewart 2/1  
Field (Any Other Driver) 10/1

Odds* to win the Sharpie 500
Sat. Aug. 22, 6:30 p.m. Bristol Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby Labonte 125/1 
Brad Keselowski 100/1 
Brian Vickers 35/1 
Carl Edwards 15/2 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 20/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1 
David Ragan 75/1 
David Reutimann 75/1 
David Stremme 100/1 
Denny Hamlin 8/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 16/1 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 30/1 
Jeff Gordon 8/1 
Jimmie Johnson 8/1 
Joey Logano 40/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1 
Kasey Kahne 14/1 
Kevin Harvick 20/1 
Kurt Busch 10/1 
Kyle Busch 6/1 
Mark Martin 9/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1 
Matt Kenseth 22/1 
Michael Waltrip 125/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 25/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Scott Speed 100/1 
Tony Stewart 7/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog