Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 9/25/2009
It was a particularly good week for the Public Action Report last week. Seven of the 11 teams that were mentioned ended up covering, and six of them were underdogs who were outright winners. That makes for a pretty good weekend on the moneyline.
I mentioned going into last weekend that the New England game was the most interesting that I had ever seen while writing this report. I want to revisit it because of that. The line dropped three full points from 6.5 to 3.5, and the public kept pouring money into the Pats. The line didn't move, though, so the public money obviously wasn't enough to offset the smart money coming in on the Jets. It's not at all rare to see the smart money go against the public - that's the point of this report. For it to be so strongly the other way, though, is reasonably unique. It's games like this that make this kind of examination worthwhile and valuable.
This week we have a total of eleven games - eight in college and three in the NFL. That's an abnormally high number of games for the second week in a row. Hopefully the quality matches the quantity again. As a quick reminder, the games we are looking at are ones where the public has bet significantly on one side yet the line moves the other way. That indicates that, for one reason or the other, the books aren't afraid of action on the seemingly under-supported team. That, in turn, is a good indicator that the team the public doesn't like is worth a look. These games are not suggested as games you should automatically pick, but rather as games that are worth a closer look.
Missouri (-7) at Nevada (Friday, Sept. 25, 9 pm) - Eighty percent of bets have been placed on the Tigers, yet the line has dropped from eight to the key number of seven. That means that Nevada is worth a look. The public is on Missouri because they are the bigger name, and because they won this one big last year. It's a new QB and a new offense for Missouri this year, though. Nevada was a good wise guy team early in the season, but they have been disappointing so far. They are better than they have shown, and Missouri hasn't played a tough schedule yet and haven't looked good doing it, so they are probably being given too much respect.
Minnesota (+1.5) at Northwestern (Saturday, Sept. 26, 12 p.m.) - Nearly 80 percent of the bets have been placed on the Gophers, but the line has dropped from a pick to 1.5. That means that we should be looking at Northwestern. Minnesota is coming off a big effort at home against Cal, and could be in for a bit if a setback.
LSU (-12.5) at Mississippi State (Saturday, Sept. 26, 12:20 pm) - Almost 80 percent of bets have been on the Tigers, yet the line has dropped from two touchdowns to 12.5. So why aren't books afraid of LSU action? Well, the team was expected to be very good this year, and so far they haven't quite lived up to that hype (though their close win over Washington in week one looks better after last week). Mississippi State has a new coaching staff and is showing real progress, including a big underdog outright win at Vanderbilt last week. Those two things combine to make the Bulldogs intriguing to smart bettors.
Rutgers (+1) at Maryland (Saturday, Sept. 26. 3:30 pm) - This one has seen a big swing. Three-quarters of bets have been on Rutgers, but the line opened with Rutgers favored by the key number of three, but has fallen so that Maryland is now favored. That's a significant move that draws our eyes to Maryland. Neither team has covered yet this year, so neither team inspires a lot of confidence.
Akron (+16.5) at Central Michigan (Saturday, Sept. 26, 3:30 pm) - More than three-quarters of the bets have been on Central Michigan, but the line has dropped from the key number of 17 to 16.5. Akron is therefore a team to look at. Central Michigan has an explosive offense, and they would have to work hard to lose this one. Akron is a feisty team, though, and 17 points is a tough spread - teams can get ahead by a wide margin and then ease off the gas, thereby allowing the trailing team to score enough late points to cover.
Cal (-5.5) at Oregon (Saturday, Sept. 26, 3:30 pm) - This game opened at the key number of seven. Despite the heavy action on Cal (three-quarters of the bets), it has dropped from that all the way to 5.5. That likely means that Oregon is getting solid support from smart bettors. Cal is notoriously weak as a road favorite, and they struggled to put away Minnesota last week. Oregon is better than Minnesota, and they are playing with a chip on their shoulder after the opening debacle against Boise State.
Washington (+8) at Stanford (Saturday, Sept. 26, 9 pm) - More than 70 percent of bettors are backing Washington after their stunning upset of USC last week, yet the line has climbed from the key number of seven to eight. It's not difficult to find reasons why Stanford is being backed by smart money - Washington is primed for a letdown after that big win, and Stanford is a pretty good team that plays particularly tough at home.
Washington State (+45.5) at USC (Saturday, Sept. 26, 10:15 pm) - This one is interesting. After USC's meltdown and offensive struggles last week, more than 70 percent of bettors have jumped off the bandwagon and are supporting Washington State. Despite that, this line has been on the move upward from the starting point of 43. That means that we are in a rare situation for the report - suggesting that USC is worth a look. The Cougars could be in for a letdown after an overtime win last week, they have been lousy against the Trojans, and USC has a lot to prove here.
Cleveland (+13) at Baltimore (Sunday, Sept. 27, 1 pm) - Three of every four bets has been on Baltimore, yet the line has dropped from the key number of 14 to 13. To be honest, I have no really good explanation for why Cleveland appears to be worth a look other than that 14 is a large spread in the NFL.
Green Bay (-6.5) at St. Louis (Sunday, Sept. 27, 1 pm) - Support is overwhelmingly on the Packers (84 percent of bets), yet the line has dropped from the key number of seven to 6.5. That's a significant move, and it signals that we should look at St. Louis. The Rams are a long way from a good team, but this line movement has to reflect on the Packers. They came into the season with high hopes after a strong preseason, but they have struggled in their opening games and have apparent problems on the offensive line.
New York Giants (-6.5) at Tampa Bay (Sunday, Sept. 27, 1 pm) - Again, the Giants have drawn a huge percentage of the bets (also 84), yet the line has also dropped off the key number of seven. Take a look at the Bucs, then. The Giants are a public team coming off a big win, but they struggled against the run, and will likely be without Justin Tuck this week. Tampa Bay isn't as bad as perceived, so this line doesn't seem to give them as much credit as some smart bettors think they deserve.
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