Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 9/18/2009
Time for another edition of the Public Action Report, where we look for line movements that don't make sense. Things have been slow to get going so far with the report, but that's the same every year. The more football that is played, the better the current information that books and smart money bettors have, and the more meaningful line moves that go against the public are. This week we have our first four NFL games of the season to look at, as well as a whopping seven college games. That's a lot of work to do, so let's get at it:
Boise State (-7) at Fresno State (Friday, Sept. 18, 9 p.m.) - More than 70 percent of bets have come in on the Broncos, yet this game opened at 7.5 and dropped to the key number of seven. With two potentially effective offenses that's a significant drop to the key number of seven. The Broncos have dominated this series recently, but they are coming off a ridiculously easy win that could have them feeling just a bit too invincible. The Bulldogs are, according to the line move, worth a look.
Northern Illinois (+11.5) at Purdue (Saturday, Sept. 19, 12 p.m.) - Seven out of 10 bets have been on Purdue, yet the line has dropped a full point from the opening 12.5. Purdue gets the support here based on name, but they aren't particularly strong this year, and Northern Illinois was feisty in an easy cover against Wisconsin earlier this season. The Huskies are worthy of consideration.
Utah (+5) at Oregon (Saturday, Sept. 19, 3:30 p.m.) - Utah has, not surprisingly, drawn 72 percent of bets, yet the line has climbed from 4.5 to 5. That would suggest that some heavy monetary action is on Oregon. One possible explanation is that Utah likely comes into this game without the services of stud running back Matt Asiata. Oregon will also be eager to prove themselves in their second shot at a ranked non-BCS team this year. that makes them worth a look.
SMU (-6) at Washington State (Saturday, Sept. 19, 5 p.m.) - On my list of games that really don't need to be played this one would rank highly. Neither game has shown much of anything in recent years. SMU is drawing the bulk of the action after displaying signs of progress under June Jones this year, including a an upset win at UAB last weekend. Despite that, the line has made a significant drop from the key number of seven. That would indicate that, for some reason, Washington State is worth a look.
Miami of Ohio (+16.5) at Western Michigan (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7 p.m.) - The RedHawks would seem to be worth a look here - 82 percent of bets have been on Western Michigan, but the line has dropped, so books are looking for more Western Michigan action for some reason. To be honest, I am at a loss to explain why. Miami has been outscored 90-0 in their two games this year, and have obviously looked as bad as a team can look.
Florida Atlantic (+20.5) at South Carolina (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7 p.m.) - Nearly 3/4 of bets have been for the eastern USC, but the line has fallen off the key number of 21. That means that the Owls are worth a look. Rusty Smith, their QB, is much better than he has played this year, and the Gamecocks aren't the most motivated team in the world, so this could be the kind of game that they let up in once they get a lead.
Buffalo (+4.5) at Central Florida (Saturday, Sept. 19, 7:30 p.m.) - The Bulls have drawn more than 70 percent of the bets, yet the line has climbed from 4 to 4.5. That would indicate that Central Florida is worth a look. Both teams are coming off a loss, but UCF comfortably covered a big spread, while Buffalo was the victim of an ugly blowout at the hands of Pitt.
Houston Texans (+6.5) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) - Nearly 85 percent of bets in this game have been on the Titans, yet the line has dropped off the key number of seven. That shows that the books aren't afraid of taking more Tennessee action. Houston was truly dismal in their opening game, and the public clearly noted that, but they are a better team on both sides of the ball, and the line movement suggests that smart money expects them to show that.
Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) - The cheeseheads have drawn 3/4 of the bets, yet the line has dropped from the key number of 10 to 9.5. That suggests that the Bengals are worth a look. This line is, in part, an indication of how fickle the public can be. There were reasonably high hopes coming into the season for the Bengals, yet one bad game, complete with a comical ending, has seemingly erased them in the public mind. This line movement would suggest that some prominent minds thinks that that was premature.
Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Miami Dolphins (Monday, Sept. 21, 8:35 p.m.) - The Colts have drawn 80 percent of the bets, yet the line has dropped to 3.5 to the most key number there is, three. That means that Miami is worth a look. The action here is clearly the case of the public favoring a public team against one coming off a loss. The truth, though, is that the Colts have yet to look very strong. They needed a late stop to win last week, and the loss of Anthony Gonzalez leaves them with the barest cupboard full of receivers that Peyton Manning has ever seen.
New England Patriots (-3.5) at New York Jets (Sunday, Sept. 20, 1 p.m.) - I left this one for last even though it's out of chronological order because it's easily the most interesting line movement I have seen in the three years I have done this report. 72 percent of the bets in this game have been on the Patriots, the most public of teams, yet the line has dropped a full field goal from 6.5 to 3.5. That means that the books are essentially begging for action on the Patriots, and that makes the Jets very interesting. New England showed multiple vulnerabilities last time out, and they face a short week to address them. The Jets started strong, displaying a new and improved tone and attitude under new coach Rex Ryan, and they will be fired up to display that for the first time in front of home fans. Some people have clearly bet some serious money on the prospect of an upset here.
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