Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 9/11/2009
It's time for the second installment of the Public Action Report for this football season. Because it's early, I'll give a quick refresher. I am looking for games where the large majority of betting action is on one team yet the line is not moving like you would expect it would in that case. Unexpected line movements in situations like that can be indicators of smart money taking the opposite side of the public in heavy amounts, or it can mean that the books aren't afraid of betting action on the favored team. Either way, when a team is identified in this report it means that they are worth a definite close look. That's not to suggest that you will make a nice profit just by betting all of these teams - you probably won't. What it can do though is to help to clarify an opinion or strengthen a position you had already arrived at, or to help you avoid a bet that you weren't feeling particularly confident in.
There are a large number of games this week - seven. All seven come in college football. The NFL often has a few games a week that qualify, but it is not that surprising that there are none here. The lines have been out for so long for the NFL, and have been bet so heavily, that they are likely as close to correct as they can be in a situation like this. We will have to be patient before we start seeing NFL opportunities, but there are more than enough here to keep you happy in the meantime:
Marshall (+19) at Virginia Tech (Saturday, Sept. 12, 1:30 p.m.) - Nine out of 10 bets have been placed on the Hokies, yet the line has dropped from 19.5 to 19. That means that someone doesn't have a lot of confidence in Virginia Tech here. It's not hard to imagine reasons why - after a strong start last week the team totally collapsed in the fourth quarter against Alabama. That brings into question their stamina,and it could also set them up for a letdown game here. Marshall is worth a look.
Arkansas State (+21) at Nebraska (Saturday, Sept. 12, 2 p.m.) - This is the biggest movement of the week. Despite drawing more than 80 percent of the support, the line for Nebraska has dropped to the key number of 21 all the way from 23.5. I guess the best argument you can make is that Arkansas is coming off a thoroughly dominating 61-0 win over Miss. Valley State where they ran the ball pretty much at will, so they may be underestimated here. Despite their recent struggles Nebraska is still a public team - especially against an opponent like this one.
BYU (-17.5) at Tulane (Saturday, Sept. 12, 3:30 p.m.) - Upset stars BYU have drawn nearly 90 percent of the action, yet the line has dropped a half a point. The best way to explain that is that this is a classic spot for a letdown for BYU. After a huge win they are facing an opponent that they can beat in their sleep. Tulane won't be able to score a lot, but we don't know that BYU will, either, and Tulane will be fired up playing at home.
Texas (-31.5) at Wyoming (Saturday, Sept. 12, 3:30 p.m.) - This is, by far, the biggest game ever played in the state of Wyoming. It means almost nothing to the Longhorns other than a win. 31.5 points is a lot. That all could go to explain why this line has dropped significantly - from 33 to 31.5 - despite seeing 87 percent of the bets on Texas. The movement suggests that Wyoming is worth a look - though obviously not as a straight up winner.
TCU (-11) at Virginia (Saturday, Sept. 11, 3:30 p.m.) - As an aside, it's a good world when a mid-major can go into a BCS school's stadium and be favored by this much. Someone isn't buying it, though. Nearly nine of 10 bets of have been on the Horned Frogs, yet the line has dropped a full point from 12 to 11. Virginia is coming off a mystifying and humiliating loss to William & Mary last week. The line movement would suggest that at least some people think that this team has enough pride to bounce back and prove themselves at home by at least keeping this one close.
Mississippi St. (+14) at Auburn (Saturday, Sept. 12, 7 p.m.) - Auburn has drawn about three-quarters of the bets, yet they have dropped down to the key number of 14 after starting a half point higher. Neither team played a meaningful opponent in the first week, so it is hard to know what they can offer. The movement would suggest that the smart money thought the line was just a touch optimistic.
Central Florida (+14.5) at Southern Miss (Saturday, Sept. 12, 7 p.m.) - This one would be more significant if it had dropped to or through the key number of 14, but it is still noteworthy that the line dropped from 15 in the face of 90 percent support for Southern Miss. The game was closer than this spread last year. Central Florida is worth a look.
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