Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 10/30/2009
As often tends to be the case, the Public Action Report did a good job of picking out an upset last week. In this case, it helped us spot the otherwise surprising upset of Miami by Clemson. Here's hoping that it offers some good insight again this time around. It will have lots of opportunity to do so - there are no NFL games available, but a whole pile of college games that fit the criteria. So many, in fact, that I have just picked out seven that are the most interesting and hopefully relevant. I won't go into depth wit the criteria again this week, but basically we are looking for games where the line movement doesn't make sense given the betting action. Without further ado:
Ohio (-6.5) at Ball State (Saturday, Oct. 21, 12 pm) - Not surprisingly, more than 70 percent of bets are on Ohio in their tilt against a struggling Ball State team that has won just once this year. Despite that, this line, which opened at 7.5, has dropped as low as 6.5. That means that Ball State is worth a look here. Ball State is coming off their first win, while Ohio lost last week as a fairly heavy favorite, so I suppose it could happen.
Southern Miss (+6.5) at Houston (Saturday, Oct. 31, 1 pm) - This one is striking. Nearly 90 percent of bets have been on Houston, yet the line has gone through the key number of seven from 7.5 to 6.5. That means that there is a very good chance that a few of the small number of bets on Southern Miss are for a lot of money. Therefore, Brett Favre's alma mater is worth a look. Houston continues to impress since their one loss, but Southern Miss has had two eye-opening wins in a row and could keep this one close - perhaps close enough to cover.
Michigan (-7) at Illinois (Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 pm) - More than 80 percent of people have bet on the Wolverines to bounce back after their debacle against Penn State, yet the line has dropped from 8.5 to the key number of seven. That means that Illinois is worth a look - despite the fact that they have only lost once, and that came against lowly Illinois State. Michigan didn't play that well last week (an understatement), but as a fan the thought of losing this one, or even keeping it close, makes me ill.
Kansas (+6.5) at Texas Tech (Saturday, Oct. 31, Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 pm) - Three quarters of bets have been on the Red Raiders, yet the line, which opened at 7.5, has blown right through the key number of seven. That movement suggests that Kansas is worth a look. Kansas has lost two in a row and hasn't covered in four, but Texas Tech is coming off a rough loss to Texas A&M and is making a QB change, so you can see how Kansas would be attractive.
Arkansas State (+3) at Louisville (Saturday, Oct. 31, 3:30 pm) - How sad of a statement about the decline of a program is it that Louisville is seen as just a field goal better than lowly Arkansas State? Brutal. More than 80 percent of bettors still have faith in the Cardinals here, but some big money bettors obviously don't - the line has dropped from 4.5 to the key number of three. Neither team is any good, but Arkansas State is coming off a win last week and almost pulled off the massive upset of Iowa three weeks ago, so you could see how sharp people might think that they aren't getting enough respect here.
Louisiana Tech (+3) at Idaho (Saturday, Oct. 31, 5 pm) - Idaho, one of the pleasant surprises of the year, has drawn 80 percent of the action, but the line has dropped from 3.5 to the key number of three. Idaho is coming off a humbling loss to Nevada, so they could be lacking confidence, and that could justify why the Louisiana Tech is worth a look based on the movement. The bigger question here is why Idaho and Louisiana Tech are in the same conference - they aren't exactly geographically linked.
Michigan State (-3.5) at Minnesota (Saturday, Oct. 3, 8 pm) - Three quarters of the bets have been on the Spartans. No surprise. What is surprising is that the line has dropped by a full field goal - from 6.5 to 3.5. That means we have to look at Minnesota. The Gophers have played reasonably well at home, and Michigan State has to bounce back from a truly demoralizing last second loss to Iowa last week.
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