Doc's Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/7/2009
It was a good weekend for the Public Action Report. The line movement pointed us at four winners in seven tries including two nice upset wins in the Big Ten - Illinois and Minnesota. This week there are six games that fit the bill - line movement that doesn't make sense given one-sided action on the game - four in college and two more in the NFL. In the past these reports have generally become more effective as the season progresses, and that's been the case so far this season. Let's see if the trend can continue this week:
Maryland (+6.5) at NC State (Saturday, Nov. 7, 1 pm) - Seven out of 10 bettors have been on NC State here, yet the line opened at 7.5 and has moved through the key number of 7 to the current level of 6.5. That movement is surprising given the action, so it indicates that Maryland is worth a look here. Neither team is playing particularly well - NC State has lost four in a row and Maryland has dropped three straight. The difference between the two is that Maryland is coming off a bye week,so they have had more time to get ready for this one. That could be enough to give the Terps and edge here - they have won three straight against the Wolfpack already.
Texas A&M (-3) at Colorado (Saturday, Nov. 7, 1:30 pm) - Eight of ten bets have been on the Aggies, yet the line opened at 4.5 and has moved to the most key number of three. That means that we should be doing something uncomfortable - looking at the Buffs. Colorado has won just twice this year - not in the last two weeks - and aside from their win over Kansas has shown absolutely no progress under coach Dan Hawkins. His seat has to be getting very hot. A&M has won two in a row but had lost three before that. I have to admit that I don't see why Colorado would stand out here, but line movements like this that include the number three are particularly compelling.
Houston (-1) at Tulsa (Saturday, Nov. 7, 7:30 pm) - This one is extremely interesting. Houston has had almost unanimous support - 91 percent of bets. Despite that, the line has dropped from the key number of three down to one. It normally takes a lot for a book to move a line off the key number of three, so you could hypothesize that there has been some very big bets made on Tulsa here. That certainly makes them interesting. Houston has lost just once, and that was five weeks ago. Tulsa has dropped three straight. Houston is clearly the better team, but they came out of a real shootout last week that they won in dramatic fashion, so they could be set up for a letdown.
Oklahoma (-4) at Nebraska (Saturday, Nov. 7, 8 pm) - Despite the struggles that Oklahoma has had this year they are drawing an overwhelming amount of the support here - 85 percent of the bets have been on the Sooners. Given the one-sided nature of the play it's eye-opening that the line has moved from the opening number of six to the current four. That means we should be looking at Nebraska. Both teams are coming off of wins last week. Oklahoma has won three of four and is playing reasonably well considering their injury woes. The Huskers needed that win last week after two straight rough losses. It wouldn't immediately seem like Nebraska is a team to trust here, but then the public certainly doesn't have a good grasp on either team this year - they have both gone under seven of eight times this season
Carolina Panthers (-13.5) at New Orleans Saints (Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:05 pm) - This one doesn't precisely fit the criteria, but it is two interesting to ignore. Two-thirds of the bets have been on New Orleans, yet the line has moved through the key number of 14 from the opening 14.5 to 13.5. This is a very large line by NFL standards, but New Orleans is undefeated, playing exciting football, and getting lots of media attention for it. That makes them a public team right now. Given that, the line movement is a good sign that smart money is doubting that even the potent Saints can overcome a line this big. That makes Carolina interesting here.
Tennessee Titans (+4) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, Nov. 8, 4:15 pm) - Seventy percent of bets have been on the Niners, yet the line has dropped from 6.5 to four. That means we should be looking at the Titans. The Titans finally got their first win behind a competent game from Vince Young and a brilliant running performance from Chris Johnson. The Niners have dropped three in a row after a good start. Given the short term trajectories of the teams you could see how smart money could be drawn to the Titans - especially because we still haven't seen enough to know if we can trust Alex Smith this time around.
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