Doc's Friday Public Action Report
by Trevor Whenham - 11/13/2009
Last week was another very good week for the Public Action report. The Report tends to get stronger as the season progresses, and this year has been no exception recently. In six games last week, the Report went 4-1-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS in the NFL. It even picked out three nice upsets - Colorado, Nebraska, and the Titans. There are six more games that fit the criteria this week, so hopefully it is another strong outing for the Report.
Before we look at the games, another quick review of the criteria. In a nutshell we are looking for games in which the line movement is the opposite of what you would expect. The games we focus on are ones in which at least 70 percent of the bets are made on one team. When action is that one-sided you would typically expect the oddsmakers to increase the line in an attempt to balance the action and minimize their exposure. Sometimes, though, the opposite happens and we get interested.
When the line moves contrary to expectations then we can guess that a couple of things could be a factor - either the books are willing to take lopsided action because they have a string feeling about the game or, more likely, some of the small numbers of bets on the ignored team have been for large amounts from professional bettors. That's called smart money, and if the smart money is strongly on one team then that team is worth a look. That doesn't mean that the Report is a tout sheet - a suggestion that you should blindly bet the teams indicated. It just means that something that isn't immediately obvious is going on with these games, and they require a deeper look before you bet on them.
Without further ado, here are the five college games and the one NFL game that fit the criteria:
Tennessee (+5.5) at Mississippi (Saturday, Nov. 14, 12 pm) - Almost three out of four bets have been on Tennessee, yet the line is on the move - from opening as low as 2.5 through the key number of three to 5.5. That's a strong indication that Mississippi is worth a look. Tennessee has covered four in a row, while Ole Miss hasn't covered their last two. The Rebels have been a much better team at home than on the road, though, and on paper should be a better team than Tennessee.
Missouri (-1) at Kansas State (Saturday, Nov. 14, 12:30 pm) - This one is interesting because we have seen an unexpected shift of favorites. More than 70 percent of bets have been made on Kansas State, yet they opened as 2.5-point favorites and are now one-point underdogs. This one would be more significant if the shift involved a key number on one side or the other, but the important thing is that the favorite has shifted. That means that Missouri is worth a look here. The Tigers could use a cover here - they have won and covered just once in their last five. Kansas State has won four straight and six of their last seven, but someone seems to think that that streak is ready to come to an end.
Arizona (+3) at Cal (Saturday, Nov. 14, 3:30 pm) - This one is even more interesting than the last one because it does involve a key number. Arizona, ranked 19th, has drawn seven out of 10 bets, yet they have gone from two-point favorites to three-point underdogs. That's a very significant move and means that Cal is worth a look here. Arizona has won and covered three in a row, and need a win here to still give themselves a chance to win the Pac-10. Cal hasn't covered in three games, but is obviously a more talented team than they have looked this year, and are always dangerous.
Boston College (-4) at Virginia (Saturday, Nov. 14, 3:30 pm) - The Eagles, who have drawn almost 80 percent of bets, have seen their line fall from 5.5 to four. That means we should be looking at the Cavaliers. At first glance that's not very comforting - Boston College has covered three in a row while Virginia has failed to cover three straight. The Eagles haven't been consistent this year, though, and are coming off a bye week so they could be rusty.
Miami (-3) at North Carolina (Saturday, Nov. 14, 7:30 pm) - More than 80 percent of bets have been on Miami, yet the line has dropped from opening at four to the key number of three. That means that we should be looking at the Tar Heels. Miami has won two in a row, but have only covered one of their last three. They had perhaps the hardest schedule in the country over the first half of the season, and exhaustion as a result of that could explain why they haven't been as strong as they should be in recent weeks. North Carolina beat Virginia Tech two weeks ago, and bounced back strong from it, so they are obviously are a dangerous team.
Denver Broncos (-3.5) at Washington Redskins (Saturday, Nov. 14, 1 pm) - Not surprisingly, the Broncos have drawn almost 85 percent of the bets in this game. The surprising part is that the line has dropped - it opened at 4.5 to 3.5. That means that I have to write a sentence that makes me shiver just thinking about it - the Redskins are worth a look. Washington has lost four in a row, and have covered just once in nine games, so trusting them is a scary proposition. The Broncos have lost two in a row, though, and are a potentially fragile team that could have confidence issues.
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