NASCAR: 2009 Price Chopper 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 10/2/2009
Jimmie Johnson cut Mark Martin's lead to ten points in the Chase for the Sprint Cup last week at Dover, but Martin finished second giving Hendrick Motorsports a one-two finish and increased the lead between second and Juan Pablo Montoya to -55 points as NASCAR heads to Kansas Speedway for the Price Chopper 400 on Sunday at 1 p.m.
Gamblers interested in investing in Sunday's race should note that in the last five years Chevrolet and Ford have alternated wins at Kansas with Johnson's No. 48 Chevrolet Impala winning last year while the last four winners at Kansas; Johnson, Greg Biffle, Tony Stewart, and Mark Martin are all currently participating in the Chase.
Who will win the 2009 Price Chopper 400?
Don't be surprised to see the Johnson-Martin show continue this week at Kansas as both drivers are among the best when it comes to intermediate tracks. Despite this both drivers have a cushion going into this race and I think Martin is due for a let down this week while with Johnson, set at 7/2 to win, you can obviously never count him out. In fact a fun thing you might want to consider doing is betting Johnson to win the next eight Chase races. In my opinion he has the ability to win 50 percent of the remaining Chase races and each race the odds will be about 7/2. Factor that in and you will cover your losses by almost a 2/1 margin-and all you have to do is DVR the excitement since most likely you are watching the No Fun League on Sundays. But if you want to invest in each race individually and not squat on your Johnson then this is who I like on Sunday.
2009 NSCS point's leader Stewart moved up one spot in the Sprint Cup standings but is bogged down in fifth place and -106 points behind the leader Martin. Stewart had a great season going into the Chase and then ran into a bit of bad luck with a broken axle at NHMS and then with an awful hit on Joey Logano that sent the No. 20 car into 7.5 barrel rolls 30 laps into the race last week. Stewart will need to outrun that bad luck soon as there are only seven races until Homestead.
Stewart won at Kansas in 2006 and had compiled an impressive string of two straight top-five finishes. "Smoke" will try to outrun his recent spate of bad luck at Kansas where he has not run well in the past two years. Last year he finished 40th and in 2008 was only slightly better with a 39th position. This year Stewart-Haas Racing has the added benefit of getting their chassis and loop data from Hendrick Motorsports and that has given SHR a marked advantage over their competition seeing how HMS has dominated NASCAR; especially strong during the ten races that make up the Chase.
Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (10/1)
2009 Price Chopper 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Richard Childress Racing's Clint Bowyer hails from Emporia, Kansas and grew up racing five miles from Kansas Speedway at Lakeside Speedway. Bowyer is currently 16 the in the standings and won't be able to win the Sprint Cup this year since he did not make the Chase for the first time since its inception. However, that means Bowyer will be racing for owner's points and for his hometown fans. In three starts at Kansas, Bowyer has two top-tens. He finished as high as second in 2007 and last year finished this race in 12th place and in 2006 Bowyer finished ninth. What is impressive about Bowyer's stats at Kansas is that he improves five places during the race as his average start position is 13.37 and his average finish is 7.67. Last week Bowyer was running in fifth position when his team opted not to change tires on one of the two last cautions of the race. This gamble did not pay off and Bowyer finished the race 15th on the grid. I don't see him making the same mistake this week.
Pick! Clint Bowyer, No. 33, (25/1)
2009 Price Chopper 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
HMS cars dominated the AAA 400 last week with both Johnson and Martin finishing in the top-two positions as well as sixth for Jeff Gordon and another disappointing 20th place for Dale Junior. Gordon picked up two spots in the standings moving from tenth to eighth place; this was good enough for the largest improvement of all the Chase drivers. Gordon now sits -122 points behind the leader and if he hopes to make up the difference he'll need to start this week as Kansas. Gordon has only one win this season, but what has kept him competitive is his 12-top five finishes; good for second behind Stewart who leads all drivers in that category with 13 top-fives finishes this season. Keep in mind that Gordon won his first two races at Kansas in 2001-02 and brings in five top-fives and six top-ten finishes in his last eight cars. It seems like Gordon's big problem recently is that his car starts well at the beginning of the races and his crew over-tunes it during the race causing him to have a worse car than when he started. This week if Steve Latarte can duplicate the improvement in the 24 Chevy as he did last week, improving to sixth from seventh, Gordon might have a realistic chance of giving Johnson a run for the Sprint Cup.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, 12/5
Odds* to finish in the Top 3 - 2009 Price Chopper 400
Sun, Oct. 4, 1 p.m. Kansas Speedway
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Brad Keselowski 30/1
Brian Vickers 7/2
Carl Edwards 7/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 15/2
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/2
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 12/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 7/2
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 7/2
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 12/5
Jimmie Johnson 11/10
Joey Logano 12/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 11/4
Kasey Kahne 11/2
Kevin Harvick 15/2
Kurt Busch 9/2
Kyle Busch 7/2
Marcos Ambrose 30/1
Mark Martin 9/5
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1
Matt Kenseth 6/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 9/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 3/1
Field Any Other Driver) 15/1
Odds* to Win the 2009 Price Chopper 400
Sun, Oct. 4, 1 p.m.
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1
Brian Vickers 12/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1
David Ragan 100/1
David Reutimann 40/1
David Stremme100/1
Denny Hamlin 12/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/2
Joey Logano 40/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 9/1
Kasey Kahne 18/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 12/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1
Matt Kenseth 20/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog.com
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