NASCAR: Pocono 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 06/06/2009
Even Jimmie Johnson's win last Sunday couldn't keep Tony Stewart, rookie co-owner of team Stewart-Hass racing, from taking over the Sprint Cup standings by 46-points. "Smoke" finished second at Dover, good enough for the lead and great momentum as NASCAR heads to where the host is the most; the Pocono's and the Pocono 500 in Long Pond, Pa. this Sunday at 2 p.m.
True to the slogan, the Pocono 500 has a bit of everything that racing purists and crash junkies lust for in stock-car racing. In the modern racing era in Pennsylvania from 2001-2008 the Pocono 500 has averaged 19 lead changes and run about 30 laps under seven yellow flags. In that same time span drivers have averaged 53 laps on green flags.
So get a cooler of your favorite libations iced up, pick a car and go online. One of the few ways I can think of to make Sunday afternoon just a little bit better (my apologies to the Milwaukee's Best models) is a judicious sports investment at your favorite off-shore parlor. For the column's purposes Bodog has provided the odds for the Pocono 500.
Who will win the 2009 Pocono 500?
Dover lived up to its billing as Stewart and Johnson dueled it out to the end of last Sunday's race until Johnson passed smoke with two laps to go to secure 190 points and his second win of the season. Johnson moved into third pace in the Sprint Cup standings behind teammate Jeff Gordon in second and newly-minted leader Stewart, who earned 175-points for his second-place finish.
Meanwhile, Kurt Busch had another great race last week at Dover where the older Busch finished fifth while his "Rowdy" brother Kyle finished off the lead lap. After Dover Kurt is -91 points out and that is good enough for fourth place in the Sprint Cup Standings. The good news, however, for Kurt, is that the "Blue Deuce" performs well at Pocono. Busch has raced 16 times at Pocono and has won twice. These are included in his seven Top-5s and eight Top-10s, but he has failed to finish three events and last year he finished eighth in the June race and 38th in August. At 11/1 I'll pass.
Currently there are 10 active drivers that have won and are entered in the Pocono 500. Jeff Gordon leads all drivers with four. Gordon is also the track's all-time lap leader. In 19 races at Pocono he has led a remarkable 870 laps. This year alone Gordon has amassed 1,154 points on Super-speedways alone, good enough for third in number of points on this type of track.
Johnson's SS Impala looked great at Dover and I expect more of the same this week. Johnson comes into Pocono with five Top 5s and nine Top-10s in 14 races. If Gordon is good on the super-speedway's Johnson is better. He has earned the most points on speedways this season at 1,226 and in the last four races at Pocono has three Top-10s in the past four races. Last June Johnson finished this race in sixth place and improved to 3rd in August. Of course, Johnson is always a threat to win but hasn't won at Pocono since he swept both races in 2004.
Gamblers should keep in mind that since the 2009 season began drivers have not raced on a track with a surface similar to the one at Pocono. If you are looking for an edge give a serious look at the drivers who were lucky enough to test the Goodyear's earlier this week. Those drivers were: Jeff Burton, Juan Pablo Montoya, Tony Stewart, Greg Biffle, David Stremme, Kasey Kahne, Robby Gordon and Bill Elliott. These guys have been given a priceless preview of what they might expect on Sunday.
The way "Smoke" has been racing the last thing other drivers want to do is give Stewart any kind of edge. Now he has two. Qualifiers were rained out on Friday so the grid is set by points. This gives Stewart the added bonus of starting the race from the pole; which will make him very hard to beat on Sunday. Jeff Gordon will start second with Johnson and Kurt Busch rounding out the top four for Sunday's race. Last year's defending champion is Kasey Kahne, who was also the pole-sitter. In 20 starts at Pocono Stewart won once; June 2003 and sports six Top-5s and 14 Top-10 finishes.
Pick! Tony Stewart, No. 14, (10/1)
2009 Pocono 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
I like Brian Vickers in the Red Bull Toyota as my lucky dog long odds special for several reasons. Vickers has done remarkably well on intermediate tracks and of his four Top-10s at Pocono four were actually Top-5s. At Pocono Vickers has an average finish of 14.5, but has notched 13 total Top-5s on intermediate tracks and 29 Top-10s. Vickers also finished second in this race last year and in 2005. Something about Pocono agrees with Vickers (unlike last week at Dover when he qualified ninth but had a piss-poor car and finished 25th, which caused him to drop to 17th in the Sprint Cup standings). If Vickers hopes to make the Chase he'll have to have another very good finish in the Pocono's. Another tasty morsel might be taking Vickers at 8/1 to come in the Top 3 to finish this race if you think that asking him to win might be taking a bit too much for granted.
Pick! Brian Vickers, No. 83, 25/1
2009 Pocono 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Much has been made of Carl Edward's disappointing season but I think a good argument could be made for Joe Gibbs Racing's Denny Hamlin. When Stewart left JGR it was expected that Hamlin would help Kyle Busch bring home some more wins if not a Championship. But things have not gone as well as JGR and fans would like. Hamlin is coming off a very disappointing 36th-place finish at Dover last week. Aside from that, though, Hamlin has raced consistently this year, but for a driver with his talent I think that it is safe to say that he can do better to close out races. Hamlin has done very well at Pocono and even swept both races in 2006. Even more impressive is this stat: in six races Hamlin has finished in the Top-5 in four of those races.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (2/1)
Sprint Cup Series Pocono 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish*
Sun, June 7th 12:30 p.m. Pocono Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 40/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 8/1
Carl Edwards 5/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Cerrike Cope 110/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
Dave Blaney 75/1
David Gilliland 75/1
David Ragan 18/1
David Reutimann 18/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 2/1
Dexter Bean 90/1
Elliott Sadler 35/1
Greg Biffle 7/2
Jamie McMurray 15/1
Jeff Burton 12/1
Jeff Gordon 5/2
Jimmie Johnson 6/5
Joe Logano 18/1
Joe Nemechek 53/1
John Andretti 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 22/1
Kasey Kahne 7/2
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Kurt Busch 7/2
Kyle Busch 2/1
Marcos Ambrose 45/1
Mark Martin 7/2
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Matt Kenseth 11/2
Michael Waltrip 35/1
Mike Wallace 75/1
Patrick Carpentier 75/1
Paul Menard 45/1
Reed Sorenson 37/1
Regan Smith 52/1
Robby Gordon 37/1
Ryan Newman 7/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 45/1
Scott Speed 60/1
Sterling Marlin 60/1
Tony Stewart 7/2
Trevor Boys 110/1
Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Pocono 500*
Sun, June 7th 12:30 p.m. Pocono Raceway
A.J. Allmendinger 175/1
Bobby Labonte 150/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Carl Edwards 8/1
Casey Mears 125/1
Cerrike Cope400/1
Clint Bowyer 45/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1
Dave Blaney 250/1
David Gilliland 250/1
David Ragan 65/1
David Reutimann 60/1
David Stremme 200/1
Denny Hamlin 7/1
Dexter Bean 300/1
Elliott Sadler 150/1
Greg Biffle 14/1
Jamie McMurray 55/1
Jeff Burton 45/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joe Logano 60/1
Joe Nemechek 175/1
John Andretti 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 65/1
Kasey Kahne 11/1
Kevin Harvick 40/1
Kurt Busch 11/1
Kyle Busch 7/1
Marcos Ambrose 150/1
Mark Martin 10/1
Martin Truex Jr. 60/1
Matt Kenseth 18/1
Michael Waltrip 150/1
Mike Wallace 250/1
Patrick Carpentier 250/1
Paul Menard 150/1
Reed Sorenson 125/1
Regan Smith 175/1
Robby Gordon 125/1
Ryan Newman 20/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 150/1
Scott Speed 200/1
Sterling Marlin 200/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Trevor Boys 400/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog