2009 NCAA Final Four Props
by Nicholas Tolomeo - 4/2/2009
Now that March Madness has veered into April and with most people's brackets in a trash can somewhere it is time to look at other ways to make money from this year's Final Four. NCAA Tournament props are aplenty, even with only four teams in the running, and it can often be a challenge picking props that rely on a team winning at least one game and probably two. Here is analysis on three of the more popular Final Four props from Bodog:
Which will be the highest scoring team in the 2009 NCAA Men's Basketball Final Four Round?
North Carolina 20/33
Villanova Wildcats 9/4
Connecticut Huskies 7/2
Michigan State Spartans 7/1
Obviously North Carolina gets the nod in the bookmakers' eyes with an extremely chalky 20/33 line. The Tar Heels are favored to win it all and the over/under for its game against Villanova is 158.5 points, 25 points higher than the total in the UConn-Michigan State game. Connecticut is interesting at 7/2 because the Huskies have been pouring it on lately. Dating back to the Big East tournament UConn has scored an NBA-like 93.2 points per game.
You can almost completely rule out Michigan State. If the Spartans were to get in a shootout in the semifinal game, they would almost surely lose. Tom Izzo's team does not like to play a fast tempo game and when they do things are often bad for Sparty. In the last two wins for Michigan State, it has scored 64 and 67 points.
While Villanova has the worst odds to win the championship, its odds at 9/4 are second best to score the most points. If the Wildcats can get past North Carolina as seven-point underdogs they should find a somewhat easier time in the title game. And even if they just keep it close, the point total from the semifinal's expected shootout against the Tar Heels could be enough to make Villanova the highest scoring team in the tournament. The Wildcats have averaged 81 points per game throughout the NCAA Tournament.
If you think Villanova has a chance against North Carolina, the smart play here is Villanova at 9/4.
Odds to Win the 2009 Men's Basketball Final Four Most Outstanding Player
Ty Lawson (North Carolina) 7/2
AJ Price (Connecticut) 21/4
Tyler Hansbrough (North Carolina) 6/1
Jeff Adrien (Connecticut) 7/1
Hasheem Thabeet (Connecticut) 12/1
Goran Suton (Michigan St) 12/1
Dante Cunningham (Villanova) 12/1
Stanley Robinson (Connecticut) 15/1
Kalin Lucas (Michigan St) 15/1
Scottie Reynolds (Villanova) 17/1
The favorite here is Ty Lawson, the speedy North Carolina point guard whose toe had people questioning North Carolina's ability to advance in the tournament. Lately that same toe, now healthy, has Las Vegas calling North Carolina the favorite. A.J. Price from Connecticut at 21/4, Tyler Hansbrough from North Carolina at 6/1 and Jeff Adrien at 7/1 are next in line.
A player from a losing team has not won Most Outstanding Player in the tournament since 1983 when Houston's Akeem Olajuwon (before he changed the spelling of his name) won the award. It would take a legendary performance for that to happen and I would not bet on that so stick with a player you think would win the tournament. Villanova has Dante Cunningham (12/1) and Scottie Reynolds (17/1) but the Wildcats odds to win it all are already 6/1 so at 12- and 17-to-1, respectively; Cunningham and Reynolds do not offer much value.
Hansbrough, a senior who came back to school for the opportunity to win a title, has surprisingly good value at 6/1 behind Lawson and Price. Hasheem Thabeet, the Big East Co-player of the year, does not even have the best odds on his team at 12/1. Traditionally the award does not go to big men. Although from 2004-2006 with Emeka Okafor, Sean May and Joakim Noah, big men enjoyed a run of success. The last two winners have been Florida's Corey Brewer and Kansas' Mario Chalmers.
Michigan State's players are in the same situation as Villanova's. The odds are high enough for the team to actually win the tournament that it does warrant extra risk also trying to pick a player from the team. Goran Suton at 12/1 and Kalin Lucas at 15/1 are Michigan States' best chances for an MOP.
It is tough to bet against Hansbrough in this situation especially at 6/1 although a counter bet on Thabeet at 12/1 would help.
Player to score the most points in the 2009 Men's Basketball Final Four
The NCAA has not staged a third-place consolation game in over three decades so you basically need to advance to the title game to win this one. North Carolina has the best odds to do just that and it is easy to see why four of its players are favored in this prop. The lines get confusing here so we will go with decimals.
Hansbrough 5.25/1, Lawson 5.5/1, Wayne Ellington 6/1 and Danny Green 9.5/1 are all options if you think the high scorer will come from the Tar Heels. Hansbrough leads all scorers entering the tournament with 20.9 points per game but he has struggled in the tournament being held to 8 points against Oklahoma and 15 to LSU in the second round. Lawson has caught fire lately with back-to-back 19-point performances the last two rounds after a 23-point game against LSU.
The dilemma is the same for UConn, which also has four capable scorers with Price (14.7 ppg), Adrien (13.7), Thabeet (13.5) and Stanley Robinson (8.5). Price is 6/1 to lead all scores and Adrien, Thabeet and Robinson are all 9/1.
Connecticut and North Carolina have the best chance to play two games but with too many scoring options it is tough to pick the scorer who steps up in Ford Field. The value here is with the two underdogs.
There is not too much risk and maybe just enough reward with taking Villanova's Cunningham (7/1) or Reynolds (8/1), who average 16.2 and 15.2 respectively. The Spartans have both Suton (11/1) and Lucas (9/1) as viable options. Neither pours in a lot of points but both are hot lately. Suton has 39 points in his last two games against Kansas and Louisville, two stout defenses, and Lucas has reached double digits in nine consecutive games.
Stick with either Cunningham or Reynolds from Villanova and counter that with either Suton or Lucas from Michigan State.