Sweet 16 Betting: East Regional Preview
by Robert Ferringo - 03/24/2009
It wasn’t always pretty and it wasn’t always easy, but the chalk survived the opening weekend in the East Regional. It took overtime (Xavier), a double-digit second half comeback (Villanova), some clutch plays in a game that was tied in the last 60 seconds (Duke), and a late pull away against a plucky No. 16 seed (Pittsburgh), but the top four seeds are alive and well and heading to Boston this weekend for a crack at the Final Four.
Here is a breakdown of the East (Boston) Regional:
Xavier (+7) vs. Pittsburgh (7:30 p.m., Thursday, March 24)
The opening game in this regional will pit the top-seeded Panthers against the No. 4 seeded Musketeers.
I can honestly say that there probably hasn’t been a more unassuming, underrated team in the entire field than this Xavier crew. The X-Men were a ridiculous 75-to-1 underdog to win the East Regional at the tournament’s outset. Yeah, you read that right: Xavier wasn’t 75-to-1 to win the entire tournament, they were 75-to-1 just to win the East! And this is despite the fact that if you compare the postseason resumes of these two schools over the last several year the Musketeers have outperformed the Panthers by a mile.
Over the last four NCAA Tournaments the Musketeers have been the single best bet on the board, posting a gaudy 7-2 record against the spread. They have two starters, Derek Brown and C.J. Anderson, back from an Elite Eight squad from last year and they feature five guys (of eight) that played 10 or more minutes per game for that team. Coach Sean Miller is one of the best in the business and you know he’s going to have his guys ready to play in this one.
From a matchup perspective, I actually like the big bodies that Xavier has to throw at DeJuan Blair. Blair is pretty much unstoppable on the offensive glass. But Xavier is one of the best rebounding teams (No. 18 offensive rebounding, No. 36 defensive) in the country and boasts two 6-8 starting power forwards and a seven-foot center off the bench to compete. What’s more is that it has been proven that Pittsburgh is vulnerable when Blair gets in foul trouble. Because Xavier pounds the ball inside on offense that increases the odds of Blair being put in tough positions and also puts a tremendous amount of pressure on the officials in this game.
Pittsburgh really labored to get through the opening weekend, struggling against No. 16 East Tennessee State and then tussling with No. 8 Oklahoma State. In both instances the Panthers were looking at a one- or two-possession game in the last four minutes. Further, Pittsburgh is 0-3 ATS this postseason and all four of their losses this year have been either on the road or on a neutral court.
The area that Pittsburgh in which has a sizeable advantage is at point guard. Levance Fields is a seasoned PG that has proven himself in big games while his counterparts, freshman Terrell Holloway or sophomore Dante Jackson, are unproven on this stage.
This game is absolutely going to live up to its billing. Both teams are methodical on offense, relying on powerful inside games for motion and senior shooting guards to hit big shots. Xavier has an experience edge and a free throw edge. But Pittsburgh has proven itself against the top teams in the country this year. Xavier has lost 14 games over the past two seasons, but only half of them have been by more than seven points.
Villanova (+2.5) vs. Duke (10 p.m., Thursday, March 24)
The Blue Devils are out of the opening weekend for the first time in three years and now it seems like all of the momentum is in the Blue Devils’ camp. Duke will head to Boston as a favorite and are clearly playing well enough to advance and take another crack at Pittsburgh for the right to head to the Final Four.
Duke has won 10 of 11 games and has been on fire since winning the ACC Tournament. They’ve taken down five straight, and although they are just 2-3 ATS in those games they are playing their sharpest ball of the season. Also, in their two biggest nonconference games of the year – at Purdue and against Xavier on a neutral court – the Blue Devils laid out absolute ass-kickings winning by 16 and 18 points. The Blue Devils rely heavily on the three-point shot, something that the Wildcats have struggled to defend this year. And if Duke is hitting from deep they can be tough to stop.
That said, Villanova is the wildcard in this region and I think that they matchup pretty well with the Blue Devils. Villanova relies on a tight eight-man rotation that features four guards and four forwards. None of their forwards are particularly dominating, but their size alone should give them an advantage over the smaller, faster Blue Devils. Dante Cunningham, Nova’s leading scorer, needs to have a big game if the Wildcats are going to get it done. But I don’t see any of the Dukies matching up particularly well against him.
Villanova’s backcourt is full of gritty, tough-as-nails bulldogs that won’t at all be intimidated by matching up with the Blue Devils. Scottie Reynolds is as good as anyone that’s going to be on that court and has proven that he’s capable of carrying the scoring load for the Wildcats. The key will be how Nova’s sophomore Coreys – Corey Fisher and Corey Stokes – perform on the perimeter. They need to knock down shots and they have to be able to defend the athletes that the Blue Devils will throw at them. If they do that, then the Wildcats can win this one outright. But if they don’t step up then this one could get ugly and the more experienced, more battle-tested Duke group could bury the team from the Big East.
Further, Villanova has shown a stunning ability to collapse for full halves. They blew a 15-point lead in the Big East Tournament against a wounded Marquette team before stealing a comeback win. They then mailed it in for about 25 minutes in the first round against American before pulling through with an overwhelming push to turn a 15-point deficit into a 13-point win. That type of inconsistency makes for a dicey bet this time of year.
Another thing to consider is that Duke has not performed well against the Big East and even though they enter Boston as a favorite they should expect a very pro-Villanova, pro-Big East crowd in that region. Duke is just 2-8-1 ATS against teams from the Big East over the last several years.
Questions or comments for Robert? E-mail him at robert@docsports.com or check out his Insider Page here.