When deciding where to put your money for tonight's National Championship Game between Michigan State and North Carolina, with the Heels 7.5-point favorites on Bodog, let's just start right away by telling everyone to completely throw out that 98-63 North Carolina beatdown of Michigan State at Ford Field on Dec. 3.

That was the most points the Spartans had allowed since 2005 and the most ever under Tom Izzo in a regulation game. Plus, starting center Goran Suton was out, injured in that one. While Suton himself is not worth a 35-point swing, he is vital to the Spartans. Without Suton, easily Michigan State's best big man, Tyler Hansbrough dominated with 25 points and 11 rebounds.

Back then, Spartans freshman Delvon Roe was recovering from knee surgery, and fellow freshman Draymond Green played only six minutes. Both are pretty significant contributors now, with Green possibly the team's best pure rebounder. That first matchup also was Sparty's fourth game in seven days.

"The last game really doesn't have anything to do with the next game," UNC point guard Ty Lawson said. "I know they're a better team right now."

Heels coach Roy Williams concurred, saying "you could tell early, early in the second half that Michigan State did not have their legs" and that "not having Suton had tremendous impact on that game."

In addition, there were about 20,000 fans for that first game at Ford Field, while a record crowd exceeding 73,000 is expected on Monday night, with probably 80 percent of them wearing green and white.

MSU went just 3-2 (2-3 ATS) early this season in the five games that Suton missed; that other loss was an 18-point setback to Maryland, and does anyone think Maryland would beat Michigan State by 18 today? In fact, one could argue that Michigan State really has only lost one game when Suton and Raymar Morgan were both fully healthy, that coming in the Big Ten Tournament to Ohio State. Morgan, by the way, played his best game in months on Saturday night, finishing with 18 points, nine rebounds and five steals against the Huskies. If he does that again, MSU is probably cutting down the nets.

So, I think the argument is valid that MSU is a much better team than it was back in December. But, scarily enough for Spartans backers, UNC is also better. In its five-game run to the title game, North Carolina has defeated every opponent by 12 points or more (5-0 ATS). Only LSU came close to covering against the Heels.

It's obvious that the toe injury that hampered Lawson is no longer an issue, and Hansbrough, who needs just one point Monday to pass former Michigan star Glen Rice as the No. 5 scorer in NCAA Tournament history, rebounded from a down game against Oklahoma with 18 points, 11 rebounds and four steals against overmatched Villanova.

But MSU has several big bodies to help on Hansbrough, whereas Nova really didn't have any other than Dante Cunningham. Surprisingly, the Heels allowed Villanova to outrebound them 53-48, and no team is a better rebounding club in the nation than Michigan State.

In addition, Sparty's bench is much deeper than is that of Carolina's. The Spartan reserves outscored the UConn reserves, 33-7, while the only UNC bench player contributing much right now is Ed Davis. Of course, the Heels' starters are so good and experienced that they don't need a lot from the bench.

This will be the fifth meeting between the Tar Heels and Spartans in the NCAA Tournament, and North Carolina has won the first four. Only one other team (Arizona in 1997) has beaten three No. 1 seeds in a single NCAA Tournament as MSU is attempting to do. But the last team to play as close to home in the Final Four as Sparty is in Detroit was Kansas in Kansas City in 1988, and the Jayhawks won it all despite being underdogs in both games.

Sound familiar?