Mark Martin extended his lead by eight points over Jimmie Johnson despite finishing seventh at Kansas last week and this week Martin and Johnson are favorites, but not the most desperate, to win as NASCAR travels to the Golden State and the ill-attended California Speedway for the Pepsi 500, the fourth race in the Chase for the Sprint Cup, on Sunday at 2:30 p.m.

Gamblers should note that if you are betting on a manufacturer to win the race keep in mind that Chevrolet has dominated this season with 15 wins and have swept all three Chase races. Also, the top four cars in the Chase are Chevys. Mirroring their parent company's woes Ford has won only two races in 2009. Matt Kenseth's No. 17 Ford won at Daytona and Fontana; but those wins seem so long ago. 

Who will win the 2009 Pepsi 500?

My pick to win at Kansas last week was Tony Stewart who was 10/1 on the win line. Thanks to a solid race he moved to fourth in the Chase and cut 39 points off Martin's lead in the Sprint Cup. Stewart's win was a reminder to NASCAR fans why he was the points-leader for a majority of the season as the No. 14 car held off a hard-charging Jeff Gordon.

Going into Kansas there were only three drivers within 100 points of the leader. However, thanks to Stewart and Gordon finishing first and second with Greg Biffle, JPM, and Denny Hamlin rounding out the top-five, six drivers are within 100 points of Martin and Gordon. Certainly Johnson remains the driver to catch, but as Kansas showed this is why you race each week -- especially during the Chase.

However, all this hope that another driver might challenge for the win might be temporary as team Hendrick Motorsports will field three teams that can win at Fontana. Along with Martin and Johnson there is Gordon, who has finished no worse than third in two of his last three races at California. Gordon finished the Auto Club 500 second behind Matt Kenseth in February. Gordon has also won at California three times in 2004, 1999, 1997.

There is one driver that I am investing in on Sunday and that is No. 48. Perhaps I am drinking from the El Cajon, Calif., Kool-Aid, but in Johnson's last seven Fontana starts he has an incredible five Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes. Johnson is only eight points behind his teammate Martin, a gap that is only two lead-laps away from changing.  In California there are a few things you don't do; tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit in the wind, you don't pull the mask off the old Lone Ranger and you don't mess around with Jim.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (7/2)
2009 Pepsi 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

The good news for Kasey Kahne is that due to his second consecutive Top-10 Chase finish; a sixth place finish at Kansas last week, he moved up one position from 12th to 11th in the Sprint Cup standings. The bad news is Kahne is an almost-insurmountable 190 points behind Martin and if Kahne hopes to contend for the Sprint Cup title he'll need to start winning races and winning fast. This could be a tall order for his team at Richard Petty Motorsports and his Budweiser Dodge that has had a hard time getting going on restarts. Kahne sports three Top-10 finishes in his last four starts at California Speedway and should be able to remain competitive throughout the race. In the Auto Club 500 in February Kahne improved 10 spots from his start position of 22 to finish 12th. If you are looking for a live long-odds play why not grab this Chaser at 24/1?

Pick! Kasey Kahne, No. 9, (24/1)

2009 Pepsi 500  - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Nursing a broken foot isn't the best way to enter the Chase, but that is what Rousch Fenway Racing's Carl Edwards has had to do. Not that he was running like he did last year when he finished the season in second due in large part to nine wins. This year the back flip hasn't made an appearance and this is one reason why Edwards is in 10th place and 165 points behind the Sprint Cup leader. Only one driver has overcome a deficit this large and that was Johnson in 2007.  The big question is can Edwards make up the difference with only seven races to go? Lost in the brilliance that is Johnson is the fact that when things are clicking Edwards is damned good at Fontana. California is arguably Edwards best track in the NSCS and he is second among active drivers with a 6.89 average finish. Edwards finished seventh in February and I look for him to do something crazy to win this race. Edwards won here in February of 2008 and this is almost a must-win for Edwards if he has any hope to salvage this disappointing season.  

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (7/2)

Odds* to finish in the Top 3 - 2009 Pepsi 500
Sun, Oct. 11, 2:30 p.m. Auto Club (California) Speedway 

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Brian Vickers 6/1 
Carl Edwards 7/2 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 15/2 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 10/1 
David Ragan 30/1 
David Reutimann 18/1 
David Stremme 30/1 
Denny Hamlin 7/2 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 7/2 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 30/1 
Jeff Gordon 2/1 
Jimmie Johnson 1/1 
Joey Logano 12/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 7/2 
Kasey Kahne 6/1 
Kevin Harvick 9/1 
Kurt Busch 6/1 
Kyle Busch 7/2 
Marcos Ambrose 30/1 
Mark Martin 3/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 30/1 
Matt Kenseth 9/2 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Paul Menard 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 9/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Scott Speed 30/1 
Tony Stewart 3/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1 

Odds* to Win the 2009 Pepsi 500
Sun, Oct. 11, 2:30 p.m. Auto Club (California) Speedway 

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Brian Vickers 18/1 
Carl Edwards 11/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 25/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1 
David Ragan 100/1 
David Reutimann 60/1 
David Stremme 100/1 
Denny Hamlin 15/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 11/1 
Jamie McMurray 100/1 
Jeff Burton 100/1 
Jeff Gordon 13/2 
Jimmie Johnson 7/2 
Joey Logano 40/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1 
Kasey Kahne 24/1 
Kevin Harvick 30/1 
Kurt Busch 20/1 
Kyle Busch 12/1 
Marcos Ambrose 100/1 
Mark Martin 11/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 100/1 
Matt Kenseth 13/1 
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Paul Menard 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 35/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Scott Speed 100/1 
Tony Stewart 10/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog