NASCAR Sprint Cup Series points leader Tony Stewart will try for a sweep in the Keystone State as NSCS returns to the “Tricky Triangle” of Pocono Raceway this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. for the Pennsylvania 500. 

Gamblers interested in backing the June winner Stewart (6/1) should note that since 1974 there have been eight season sweeps at Pocono, but only twice in the past ten years. Denny Hamlin was the last driver to accomplish this feat in 2006 while Johnson swept in 2004.

Who will win the 2009 Pennsylvania 500?

Thanks to a Juan Pablo Montoya pit-row speeding penalty at the Allstate 400 last week Johnson won his second consecutive Allstate 400 (and his last since Allstate has declined to renew its sponsorship on the IMS NASCAR race next year). No other NASCAR driver has won the race back-to-back. Johnson picked up 20 points on Stewart, but remains in second place -190 points behind Smoke.   

A few questions need to be asked after last weekend. Notably does it really matter if Johnson catches Stewart before the Chase? Will Kyle Busch suck-it-up his 38th place finish last week sent him tumbling out of the Chase from tenth place to 14th place and -82 points behind Matt Kenseth for 12th?
I’ll answer the questions in order. It does not matter if Johnson is in second or fifth or 12th place when the Chase begins. If Johnson makes the Chase he has 30-points bonus for his three wins and is almost a lock to win his fourth NSCS Championship. Busch will need to adjust to adversity better than he has. Who knows perhaps he got some bad juju from smashing that custom made Les Paul in Nashville because he hasn’t won a race since that incident.

Things most likely won’t get any better for “Rowdy” Busch who is set at 10/1 to win the Pennsylvania 500. This must be an over-sight, or an obvious sucker play since Busch has been awful at Pocono. Busch has only finished in the top-ten twice in nine starts. In June he finished 22nd an improvement over 43 rd he earned last August. Combined with Busch’s spate of recent bad luck, he cut a tire last week and finished IMS 38th, my gut feeling tells me to stay away from backing the No. 18 car until further notice. We’ll see, but if Busch doesn’t finish well at Pocono I have doubts he can make the Chase. 
It is to believe that Rousch Fenway Racing’s Carl Edwards has not won this season; 20 consecutive NSCS races and the closest he’s been to winning is second at Pocono in June. Had Stewart run out of fuel as most fans thought, Edwards would have won, but that didn’t happen. Stewart got his first win as an owner-driver and Edwards, well; he’s still in fifth place in the standings and already has two wins at Pocono. Edwards won this race last August and also in June 2005. In nine starts he’s notched four top-fives, and five top-10 finishes.

Why I like Edwards on Sunday is that he has a lot of incentive to win some races before the Chase since NASCAR awards 10-points bonus for each season win after the points reset and he needs all the bonus points he can get to keep up with Johnson and Stewart. I also like his relationship with crew chief Bob Osborne. Osborne plays the fuel-strategy game as well as anyone and at a track like Pocono it is easily the difference between winning and running out of gas. Finally, Edwards will be using the same car he used in June. The No. 99 Ford was one of the best cars on the track that day and I see no reason why that should change on Sunday.  
Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (9/1)
2009 Pennsylvania 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Reutimann is one of those drivers who don’t really hear about but actually has a legitimate shot to make the Chase. Reutimann comes to Pocono with a ton of incentive; he is currently ranked 13th and is -68 points from 12th place. In June Reutimann parlayed a winning fuel-strategy into a third place finish behind Edwards and race winner Stewart. If you don’t follow NASCAR you might not be aware that Reutimann has had an excellent year for Michael Waltrip Racing. He won the Coca Cola 600 and recorded four top-fives and six top-ten finishes in twenty starts this season. Reutimann finished the Allstate 400 in eighth place and will need another strong showing this week at Pocono to keep his Chase alive. If you are looking to back a driver who should be in the lead pack on the last lap look no further than the No. 00 Aarons Dream Machine.  
 
Pick! David Reutimann, No. 00, (12/1)

2009 Pennsylvania 500- Odds for Top 3 Finish

For some reason I always love to pick Denny Hamlin (9/4) to come in the top-three at Pocono and every-time I do something happens and backing Hamlin proves costly. So this time I like two-time Pocono winner Kurt Busch. The elder Busch is in fourth place in the NCSC standings and looks to improve on his 37th place finish in June’s Pocono 500. A poor race for the “Blue Deuce” at Pocono and now Busch will drive Penske Championship Racing’s “Hot Rod;” the PRS-594 Dodge Charger. This is the same car he drove at the Kobalt Tools 500 in March at Atlanta Motor Speedway. “Hot Rod” led 234 of 330 laps and was easily the fastest car on the track. I expect similar results on Sunday.
 
Pick! Kurt Busch, No. 2, (17/4)

Sprint Cup Series Pennsylvania 500 – Odds for Top 3 Finish*
Sun, Aug. 2nd 2:15 p.m. Pocono Raceway Raceway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 30/1 
Brian Vickers 13/2 
Carl Edwards 13/5 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 10/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 17/2 
David Ragan 30/1 
David Reutimann 12/1 
Denny Hamlin 9/4 
Elliott Sadler  30/1 
Greg Biffle 17/4 
Jamie McMurray 18/1 
Jeff Burton 18/1 
Jeff Gordon 13/5 
Jimmie Johnson 7/5 
Joey Logano 15/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 15/2 
Kasey Kahne 17/4 
Kevin Harvick 12/1 
Kurt Busch 17/4 
Kyle Busch 14/5 
Mark Martin 2/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1 
Matt Kenseth 17/2 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 13/2 
Tony Stewart 7/4 
Field (Any Other Driver) 9/1 

Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Pennsylvania 500* 
Sun, Aug. 2nd 2:15 p.m. Pocono Raceway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby Labonte 100/1 
Brian Vickers 22/1 
Carl Edwards 9/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 33/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 28/1 
David Ragan 100/1 
David Reutimann 40/1 
Denny Hamlin 8/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 14/1 
Jamie McMurray 60/1 
Jeff Burton 60/1 
Jeff Gordon 9/1 
Jimmie Johnson 5/1 
Joey Logano 50/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 25/1 
Kasey Kahne 14/1 
Kevin Harvick 40/1 
Kurt Busch 14/1 
Kyle Busch 10/1 
Mark Martin 7/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1 
Matt Kenseth 28/1 
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 22/1 
Tony Stewart 6/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1  

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.com