Jimmie Johnson won for the fourth time in five races at Phoenix last week, leading 238 of 312 laps as he all but wrapped up his fourth consecutive Sprint Cup Championship. He leads Mark Martin by 108 points going into the final race of the Chase for the Sprint Cup at Homestead-Miami Speedway this Sunday at 3 p.m.  

Gamblers investing in the final race of the NSCS season should note that in 10 Cup races at Homestead the race has been won eight times by a driver starting in the top 10. Only two races have been won from the pole -- Bill Eliot (2001) and Kurt Busch (2002). Meanwhile, Jack Rousch has had three drivers win six times at Homestead-Miami, more than any other current car owner, but this year only one of RFR's drivers (Greg Biffle) cracked the top 12 in points.

Who will win the 2009 Ford 400?

Hendrick Motorsports has a good chance to rub in their dominance of all things Sprint Cup as three of their four drivers will most likely finish 1-2-3 in the NSCS standings after the Ford 400 on Sunday. Baring catastrophe Johnson (or Martin) will win with Jeff Gordon rounding out the top three.

In his last seven races at Homestead Gordon has finished in the top five five times and in his last two trips to Florida has finished fourth place both times. Indeed, Gordon runs really well in Florida and will have to have a miracle happen to win the Cup this year. You can count on the fact that Gordon, like Martin, will bring it on Sunday-especially if a window opens with an early Johnson crash (it's unlikely someone will crash into Johnson on purpose to knock him out of the race).

Gordon will have his hands full against a field of past winners like one-time winners Martin and Tony Stewart and three-time winner Greg Biffle (2004-06). However, for Biffle, those were his only top-five finishes at Homestead. Since then Biffle has finished 18th and 14th and never really contended for the win in either of those races. Biffle is coming off his 14th-place finish at Phoenix and, given his cars in recent races, I have a hard time seeing Biffle winning his fourth race at Homestead this year.

I advise giving points' leader and 2009 Sprint Cup champion Johnson (sic) a pass this weekend as a win brings relatively little upside and the downside could be huge and cost him the Cup. In fact, while Johnson, the winner of three of the last five Sprint Cup races, has finished in the top 10 twice in the last three years at Homestead but last year finished 14th and was he really trying? Johnson's best finish at Homestead was in 2005 when he finished second but that was also the last year that a driver not named Johnson won the Sprint Cup.     

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (8/1)

2009 Ford 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

With one race remaining in the Chase and 41 drivers out of the hunt anyone can really win at Miami due to the fact that a points leader like Johnson will manage the race to finish within the top 15 while other drivers will be driving for owner's points, a new ride or sponsorship, and pride. A win at Miami can brighten even the sourest of seasons. And when you talk about sour seasons you need not look any further than Kyle Busch and Carl Edwards. Kyle got a dose of late-season disappointment by just missing the Chase while Edwards was supposed to contend for the Cup this year after winning nine races last year and giving Johnson a run for the Championship. But whether he was flying through the air upside down or nursing a broken foot, Edwards and his Rousch Fenway Ford have not been able to win this year. Edwards is the race's defending Champion and has a 6.4 average finish at Homestead; the best of all active drivers. In five races at Homestead Edwards has recorded one win, three top-fives and four top-10 finishes. So if Edwards is so good at Florida why is he my Lucky Dog this week? I think it would take a huge stroke of luck for Edwards to win on Sunday even at an under-inflated 8/1, but then again it is Edwards last chance to pop his 2009 cherry. 

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99, (8/1)

2009 Ford 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Mark Martin's season all comes down to one race this Sunday. While there are a lot of "ifs," it's possible for Martin to overtake Johnson in the standings and make up 108 points. In fact, Martin has made up this deficit against Johnson nine times in 265 races under the old points standings and new Chase format with the points reset. As recently as two weeks ago at Texas Martin chopped more than 100 points off Johnson's lead (but remember Johnson was a non-factor after three-laps). Martin also clipped more than 100 points off Johnson back at Homestead-Miami in 2005. The question is can Martin do it again on Sunday? While it does seem unlikely as Johnson will need a finish off 25th place or worse combined with a Martin win, stranger things have happened in NASCAR. Martin has never won at Homestead, but he sports four top-fives and five top-10s of which he has notched two top-10 finishes in his last three races in Miami. Martin has an average finish of 12.0, which is good enough for third-best behind Edwards, Gordon, and Stewart. Even though he might not win take for granted that Martin will have a lot to race for on Sunday which is why I like "the old man" to finish in the top-three on Sunday. 

Pick! Mark Martin, No. 5, (9/5)

Sprint Cup Series -Ford 400 Odds for Top 3 Finish

Sun, Nov. 22, 3 p.m. Homestead-Miami, FL

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 30/1 
Brad Keselowski 30/1 
Brian Vickers 15/2 
Carl Edwards 9/2 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 9/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/2 
David Gilliland 30/1 
David Ragan 30/1 
David Reutimann 18/1 
Denny Hamlin 7/2 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 5/2 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 12/1 
Jeff Gordon 5/2 
Jimmie Johnson 3/2 
Joey Logano 18/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 7/2 
Kasey Kahne 9/2 
Kevin Harvick 15/2 
Kurt Busch 7/2 
Kyle Busch  2/1 
Marcos Ambrose 30/1 
Mark Martin 9/5 
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1 
Matt Kenseth 10/3 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 9/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Tony Stewart 5/2 
Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1 

Sprint Cup Series Ford 400 Odds to win 

Sun, Nov. 22, 3 p.m. Homestead-Miami Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby LaBonte 100/1 
Brad Keselowski 100/1 
Brian Vickers 25/1 
Carl Edwards 9/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 30/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1 
David Gilliland 100/1 
David Ragan 100/1 
David Reutimann 60/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 8/1 
Jamie McMurray 100/1 
Jeff Burton 40/1 
Jeff Gordon 8/1 
Jimmie Johnson 5/1 
Joey Logano 60/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1 
Kasey Kahne 15/1 
Kevin Harvick 25/1 
Kurt Busch 12/1 
Kyle Busch 7/1 
Marcos Ambrose 100/1 
Mark Martin 6/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1 
Matt Kenseth 11/1 
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 30/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Tony Stewart 8/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog