Jimmie Johnson somehow avoided the big one last week at Talladega and finished an improbable sixth to extend his Sprint Cup lead to an insurmountable 184 points (the largest lead ever in the Chase format since 2004) with three races remaining in the Chase as NASCAR heads down to Fort Worth and Texas Motor Speedway for the Dickies 500 this Sunday afternoon at 3:30.

Who will win the 2009 Dickies 500?

Johnson could actually take Sunday off and still lead the Chase. If Johnson can finish the next three races in 10th place or better then he'll win another championship. This will cash my 7/2 futures ticket I advised in my 2009 season preview I wrote for Doc's Sports in February. Chances are slim that Johnson, the best active driver in NASCAR, will blow the lead for his fourth consecutive Sprint Cup championship.

Even a sweep at Texas would not help teammate Jeff Gordon out too much. Perhaps it would only help to regain second place from his other teammate, Mark Martin. Johnson would have to record a DNF or finish 15th on the grid, at the very least, to help them close the gap in the remaining two Chase races. It is highly unlikely that this happens; even if Gordon wins he'll have a hard time out-pacing Johnson and making up a fraction of the 192 points that he is behind.

Gordon has notched seven top-five and nine top-10 finishes in 17 starts at TMS.However, considering that five of the top-10s have come in the last six races, it makes Gordon a good play on Sunday. However, having picked Gordon to win the past two weeks in a row with no luck I am abandoning the No. 24 car this Sunday.

As the 2009 NASCAR season winds down I can see the Dickies 500 being won by a Chase drive. Other than McMurray's first win in 86 races last week at Talladega, all the Chase races have been won by Chase drivers. This Sunday I like Rousch Fenway Racing to dominate at Texas. Two drivers stand out in the RFR stable: Matt Kenseth and Greg Biffle.

If you remember in April's race Biffle led for 93 laps until a lug-nut issue in the pits cost him the victory.  Even then he almost won the race. After a late-race, 11th-place restart he moved up eight positions to finish the Samsung 500 in third place. This week he arrives at Texas fresh off a fourth-place finish at Talladega, which moved him up to seventh-place overall in the standings. This sounds great until you see that Biffle has to make up 340 points to win the Sprint Cup this year -- that won't happen. However, Biffle has won at TMS and also has three top-five finishes. Of those three top-fives Biffle finished fifth last November and third in April. I think he improves to first on Sunday.

Pick! Greg Biffle, No. 16, (12/1)

2009 Dickies  500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

In the Samsung 500 in April Rousch Fenway Racing's Matt Kenseth led at TMS for 55 laps and ultimately finished fifth in the Race. This came on the heels of two consecutive wins a month earlier. It looked like Kenseth would contend for the Sprint Cup title, or at the very least make the Chase. However, he had fortunes reversed. He lost his main sponsor, DeWalt Tools, and never really contended for the rest of the year and missed the Chase for the first time since its inception. His streak of bad luck continued last week at Talladega. He was in second place with four laps to go when Ryan Newman landed on his roof in a spectacular airborne wreck and with the three extra laps in the race Kenseth ran out of gas and finished 24. However, Kenseth sports a 105.8 driver ranking at Texas and has led for 497 laps more than any other active NASCAR driver. Kenseth also has one win, six top-five and nine top-10 finishes at the 1.5 mile Fort Worth track which makes him my long odds lucky dog play this Sunday.

Pick! Matt Kenseth, No 17, (14/1)

2009 Dickies  500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

After watching Chad Knaus' strategy at TMS fail miserably, he showed once again why he is one of the greatest active crew chiefs in NASCAR. With 18 laps to go Johnson was 30th on the grid but with five laps to go Knaus ordered Johnson to pit for fuel. This move enabled Johnson to speed by the field as they ran out of gas at the end of the race and Johnson finished an unlikely sixth and virtually cemented another Sprint Cup championship. In the last nine races at TMS Johnson is rated the third-highest driver at 103.8 behind Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth.  The truth is that Johnson almost can't race conservatively. Racing to avoid a wreck is not his style; especially in Texas where he has been nothing but money in the last six races at TMS where he has notched one win and three second-places. It is almost impossible to leave Johnson off your auto-racing investment ticket this Sunday.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (6/5)

Sprint Cup Series- Dickies 500 Odds for Top 3 Finish
Sun, Nov. 8, 3:30 p.m. Texas Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 30/1 
Brad Keselowski 30/1 
Brian Vickers 6/1 
Carl Edwards 7/2 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 9/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1 
David Gilliland 30/1 
David Ragan 22/1 
David Reutimann 12/1 
Denny Hamlin 7/2 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 7/2 
Jamie McMurray 22/1 
Jeff Burton 12/1 
Jeff Gordon 2/1 
Jimmie Johnson 6/5 
Joey Logano 12/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 3/1 
Kasey Kahne 6/1 
Kevin Harvick 15/2 
Kurt Busch 6/1 
Kyle Busch 7/2 
Marcos Ambrose 30/1 
Mark Martin 9/5 
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1 
Matt Kenseth 9/2 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 9/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Tony Stewart 7/2  
Field (Any Other Driver)  30/1 

Sprint Cup Series Dickies 500 Odds to win 
Sun, Nov. 8, 3:30 p.m. Texas Motor Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby Labonte 100/1 
Brad Keselowski 100/1 
Brian Vickers 20/1 
Carl Edwards 12/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 30/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1 
David Gilliland 100/1 
David Ragan 75/1 
David Reutimann 40/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 12/1 
Jamie McMurray 75/1 
Jeff Burton 40/1 
Jeff Gordon 7/1 
Jimmie Johnson 4/1 
Joey Logano 40/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 10/1 
Kasey Kahne 20/1 
Kevin Harvick 25/1 
Kurt Busch 20/1 
Kyle Busch 12/1 
Marcos Ambrose 100/1 
Mark Martin 6/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1 
Matt Kenseth 14/1 
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 30/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Tony Stewart 12/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 100/1 

Sprint Cup Series - Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Dickies 500
Sun, Nov. 8th (3:30pm EST)@Texas Motor Speedway PreviewAll drivers have action.

*Odds courtesy of Bodog.com