Three-time Sprint Cup winner Jimmie Johnson, who is now 12 points ahead of teammate Mark Martin for the NSCS points lead with six races left in the Chase by virtue of his dominating win at Fontana last week, is set as the 3/1 favorite to wave win this Saturday night at 7:30 for the NASCAR Banking 500 at Lowes Motor Speedway. 

Gamblers should note that Johnson at 3/1 could be the weekend's biggest sucker bet. Consider this: Lowes is known as Johnson's "home" track and the public loves "home" favorites. Johnson has the best average finish at Lowes of all active drivers and has led a jaw dropping 1,242 laps in 16 starts. At LMS Johnson has posted five wins, eight top-fives and 12 top-10 finishes at his sponsor's track.  But, in his last three races Johnson has finished no better than sixth place and finished in 13th place twice while starting two of the three races from the pole. The last time Johnson won at LMS was in May of 2006 (his third consecutive win at the track).

Who will win the 2009 Banking 500?

If you believe in things like loop data and average finish then Carl Edwards is the second best at LMS of all active drivers, which belies the 12/1 odds that the man has hung on the No. 99 Ford. Is it possible that his foot is bothering him more than he lets on? If last week's sixth-place finish at California is any indication Edwards seems to be getting over the injury. Edwards moved up two points in the standing to eighth and if he can put another solid race together at LMS he might be able to grind up the standings, but both Johnson and Montoya will have to fade and at this point they don't look like they are going anywhere.

A bright spot for Edwards is how well he battled a loose car last week at the Auto Club 500. He managed to make up five spots in the final 21 laps and ended the race with a fast car. Edwards will hope to finish as well as he did in his last race at LMS with a fourth in May at the Coca-Cola 600. However, in 2008 when Edwards dominated he only managed a 33rd-place finish. This begs the question: which Edwards will show up on Saturday night? I think the real reason for the enticing 12/1 odds on Edwards is because he is still a public guy with a prayer; but looking at the numbers it is clear that backing Edwards to win (or to finish in the top-three) most likely won't pay off since Edwards has only finished the fall race at LMS in the top-five once and that was a fifth-place finish in 2007.

Hendrick Motorsports put three of their four drivers in three of the top four spots last week at the Pepsi 500. There is no reason why the boys at team HMS can't do this again this week at LMS. However, this Saturday night I am torn between Mark Martin and Jeff Gordon. Martin finished a competitive fourth place last week and still lost the points lead to race winner Johnson while Gordon has finished his last two races in second place. Gordon is equally as good as Johnson at LMS and with 33 starts under his belt he knows the track well. Gordon has won five times with two of those wins coming in the October race; the last time Gordon won at LMS was in October 2007.

Martin has a whopping 49 starts at LMS but sits at four wins, with his last win coming in 2002. The last time Martin won an October Race at LMS was in 1998. Unfortunately for Martin he actually loses average position during races at LMS with an average start of 13.0 mitigated by an average finish of 18.7, which makes the choice clear for me this Saturday night at LMS. 

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (7/1)

2009 Banking 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

 
Gamblers who have been following the 2009 Edition of the Chase for the Sprint Cup will note that the winners so far have all been Chase drivers which means that throwing your hard won V-chips behind a non-Chase driver is futile. There are a few Chase drivers who have been set to win from 18/1 to 40/1 (Kasey Kahne, Ryan Newman, Kurt Busch and Brian Vickers) and of these drivers Newman came in second in May. However, Kahne dominates these drivers with three wins and six top-10s in 11 starts. Kahne finished seventh in May but swept Lowes in 2006 won the Coca-Cola 600 in 2008 and finished second in last year's BofA 500 which is why at 20/1 Kahne is my Lucky Dog Long Odds pick.

Pick! Kasey Kahne, No. 9. (20/1)

2009 Banking 500  - Odds for Top 3 Finish

Say what you will about his dancing, but Juan Pablo Montoya surge has definitely put a spark in this year's Chase. If you are looking for a trend to hop onto you should look no further than JPM finishing inside the top-five of each of the first four Chase races. Despite his consistency JPM ended up losing seven points after last week's race even though he finished third. The sad fact for Montoya is that for him to make up the 58-point gap between third and first is he will have to do even better than finish in the top five, he will have to win. JPM has also not run well at LMS although his eighth-place finish in May was a huge improvement over last October's 34th-place finish. This week I am banking on JPM's recent consistent top-five finishes rather than past history.

Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, No. 42, (11/2)

Odds* to finish in the Top 3 - 2009 Banking 500
Sat. Oct. 17, 7:30 p.m. Lowes Motor Speedway

Jimmie Johnson 10/11
Tony Stewart 9/5
Mark Martin 2/1
Jeff Gordon 3/1
Denny Hamlin 3/1
Carl Edwards 7/2
Greg Biffle 7/2
Kyle Busch 9/2
Juan Pablo Montoya 11/2
Kurt Busch 6/1
Kasey Kahne 6/1
Ryan Newman 6/1
Kevin Harvick 15/2
Matt Kenseth 15/2
Brian Vickers 9/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 9/1
Clint Bowyer 12/1
Joey Logano 15/1
zx Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
David Reutimann 18/1
Jeff Burton 18/1
Martin Truex Jr 22/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 30/1
David Stremme 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr 30/1
David Ragan 30/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Marcos Ambrose 30/1

Odds* to Win the 2009 Banking 500
Sat. Oct. 17, 7:30 p.m. Lowes Motor Speedway

Jimmie Johnson 3/1
Mark Martin 6/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Tony Stewart 10/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 10/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Kyle Busch12/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Brian Vickers 18/1
Kurt Busch 20/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 25/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 30/1
Clint Bowyer 30/1
Ryan Newman 40/1
zx Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
Joey Logano 50/1
Jeff Burton 60/1
David Reutimann 60/1
Martin Truex Jr 75/1
Brad Keselowski 100/1                      
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Sam Hornish Jr 100/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
David Stremme100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
David Ragan 100/1
Jamie McMurray 100/1                      
Casey Mears    100/1
David Gilliland 100/1

*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com