While Jimmie Johnson did not win last week at Martinsville his second-place finish was good enough to keep Johnson 118 points in front of Mark Martin and he could wrap up his fourth consecutive Sprint Cup championship with a solid finish this Sunday at Talladega Super-Speedway in the Amp Energy 500.

Gamblers should note that Johnson has been nothing but money in the Hendrick Motorsports' No. 48 Lowes Chevrolet since the Chase began. He has won three of the six races that comprise the Chase. His worst finish in the Chase was on Oct. 4 at the Price Chopper 400 when he finished ninth (but he led the race for 53 laps). Johnson also finished fourth in New Hampshire and second last weekend. 

Who will win the 2009 Amp Energy 500?

Not even Johnson is immune to the behemoth Talladega. 'Dega is definitely not one of Johnson's better tracks and I am very confident Johnson races to avoid the "Big One" that inevitably happens at the 2.66 mile track where a driver can move up from 15th to first in the span of one lap. While Johnson has won once in 2006 at the "cursed" track, last year he finished this race ninth (en route to his third consecutive Cup championship) and in April Johnson started 36th and finished 30th. Keep in mind that Johnson also has six DNFs at Talladega. For me the All Saints Day race is the only race in the Chase I'd lay off the "Quiet Man."  

You won't hear Johnson or Chad Knauss admit to this but Talladega is most likely the only track that could stop Johnson from winning his fourth Sprint Cup title. A bad finish by Johnson and a win by either Mark Martin or Jeff Gordon could make the last three Chase races much more interesting for NASCAR fans. 

Sunday should be a fun race to watch for fans as a typical Talladega race sports huge fiery wrecks, flying cars (a la Carl Edwards No. 99 in April's race), and 45.5 lead changes and an average green flag run of 22 laps to only 6.4 cautions for 26 laps. Speaking of Rousch Fenway Racing's Edwards, his season did not improve when the Chase began and has gone in the opposite direction. Edwards has never won at 'Dega in 10 starts and has only three top-10 finishes so I am avoiding the tasty 20/1 odds on Carl.

Likewise, Tony Stewart, who destroyed the race card all season, has won one Chase race but has been a non-factor in the other races. Stewart needs to make up 193 points between now and Homestead. A win would help a bit, but for the newly-minted owner/operator there are too many factors that decide the winner of Talladega and given his recent history I don't see him waving the checkers on Sunday, even at 8/1.

Call me a sucker but I am backing my favorite restrictor plate race driver and that is Jeff Gordon. Gordon is one of the two drivers other than Johnson who has a slim chance to make the Chase interesting. I think it's a make-or-break Chase race for Gordon and the six-time Talladega winner might have a chance for his fifth Cup title if he wins and Johnson DNFs on Sunday. And in a related note; wouldn't it be great if Gordon grew back his mustache for the race? Happy Halloween!

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (8/1)

2009 Amp Energy 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

 
Once in a while I have to throw out a pick on NASCAR's most popular driver. For his fans, there has not been a lot to cheer about for Dale Earnhardt, Jr. And lately he's even been questioning himself, his confidence is at an all-time low, and owner Rick Hendrick is at a loss as what to do to make this things right for the No. 88 team. Obviously, switching crew chiefs had little effect on improving Junior's finish position. Last week at Martinsville was the first race in four races that Junior did not finish in the top 10. This week he'll look to build on his second-place finish at Talladega in April. In fact, Junior has five wins, eight top-fives and 11 top-10 finishes at the Super-speedway. While 8/1 barely qualifies for a Lucky Dog Long Odds play it does give me a chance to search engine optimize NASCAR's favorite son.

Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No. 88, (8/1)

2009 Amp Energy 500  - Odds for Top 3 Finish

It appears there are few drivers who hate racing at Talladega more than Mark Martin. But if Martin is to win the Sprint Cup title this year he'll need to win on Sunday. Even though his last victory at Dega was all the way back in 1997 Martin says he refuses to be intimidated by the Super-speedway; a place where he has won twice and has notched 10 top-five finishes and a whipping 65 top-10s. I like Martin this week to open her up all day and compete against his other HMS teammates for the win.

Pick! Mark Martin, No. 5, (7/2)

Odds* to finish in the Top 3 - 2009 Amp Energy 500
Sun, Nov. 1 Talladega Super-speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 15/1 
Bobby Labonte 18/1 
Brad Keselowski  15/1 
Brian Vickers 15/2 
Carl Edwards 6/1 
Casey Mears 15/1 
Clint Bowyer 15/2 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/5 
David Ragan 15/2 
David Reutimann 9/1 
David Stremme 30/1 
Denny Hamlin 7/2 
Elliott Sadler 15/1 
Greg Biffle 12/1 
Jamie McMurray 9/1 
Jeff Burton  9/1 
Jeff Gordon 12/5 
Jimmie Johnson 7/2 
Joey Logano 9/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 7/2 
Kasey Kahne 9/1 
Kevin Harvick 15/2 
Kurt Busch 7/2 
Kyle Busch 2/1 
Marcos Ambrose 15/1 
Mark Martin 7/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 12/1 
Matt Kenseth 15/2 
Michael Waltrip 15/1 
Reed Sorenson 18/1 
Ryan Newman 6/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 18/1 
Tony Stewart 12/5 
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/2 

Odds* to Win the 2009 Amp Energy 500
Sun, Nov. 1 Talladega Super-speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 
Bobby Labonte 60/1 
Brad Keselowski 50/1 
Brian Vickers 25/1 
Carl Edwards 20/1 
Casey Mears 50/1 
Clint Bowyer 25/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8/1 
David Ragan 25/1 
David Reutimann  30/1 
David Stremme 100/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/1 
Elliott Sadler 50/1 
Greg Biffle 40/1 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 30/1 
Jeff Gordon 8/1 
Jimmie Johnson 12/1 
Joey Logano 30/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1 
Kasey Kahne 30/1 
Kevin Harvick 25/1 
Kurt Busch 12/1 
Kyle Busch 7/1 
Marcos Ambrose 50/1 
Mark Martin 12/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 40/1 
Matt Kenseth 25/1 
Michael Waltrip 50/1 
Reed Sorenson 60/1 
Ryan Newman 20/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 60/1 
Tony Stewart 8/1 
Field (Any Other Driver)  25/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog