NASCAR: Lifelock 400 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 06/11/2009
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Tony Stewart will try to build on the momentum from last week's vapor-fueled win as NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series makes it way to Brooklyn, Michigan for the season's first stop at Michigan International Speedway this Sunday at 12:30 p.m. televised by TNT.
Gamblers looking for an edge in this weekend's race should note that MIS has been particularly kind to Rousch Fenway Racing. Jack Rousch is tied with the Wood Brothers for the most wins at MIS at 11. Rousch has been masterful at guiding his drivers to the winner's circle as Greg Biffle, Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth have all won twice at MIS. Another helpful hint is that in 14 starts at MIS Jimmie Johnson has never won and has an average finish of 14.4.
Who will win the 2009 Lifelock 400?
Dale Earnhardt, Jr. is the Lifelock 400's defending champion; his first and only, in case you didn't realize it, as a member of Hendrick Motorsports. Junior's 27th-place finish last week killed any hopes Junior Nation might have had for the 88 car to make the Chase this year. Junior is now twentieth in the Sprint Cup standings and 247 points out of 12th place. Keep in mind Junior's crew chief was replaced by Lance McGraw two weeks ago. The pink cloud under McGraw perhaps has burst. Junior notched a 12th at Dover but it is looking like he isn't racing a lot better since he got a new crew chief. As they say in football now he's playing for pride. At this point backing Junior is a losing proposition so lay off the 88 until further notice.
Last week at the Pocono 500 my pick, Tony Stewart (10/1), had to go from worst to first in a back-up car to get his first official win of the season as a driver and NASCAR owner. Stewart won on fuel as he outpaced Carl Edwards and Jimmie Johnson ran out of gas on the final lap of the race. The win extended Stewart's lead to 71 points over Jeff Gordon on the Sprint Cup leader-board.
If Stewart wins again this week it will be fun to count how many people are shocked at how well Stewart-Hass racing is doing in their inaugural year. (Most of the thanks can be directed to Hendrick Motorsports where SHR gets their chassis and shares data. But that isn't a big deal, right?) Even so, last time Stewart won at Michigan was in that orange car in 2000. In 20 starts at MIS Smoke he has an average finish of 12.4 with nine top-fives and 13 top-ten finishes. Stewart has a 71-point cushion going into Michigan so he doesn't have to take too many chances. He has had three DNFs at MIS. I'm not saying Stewart will be overcautious or anything, but just do enough to keep that No.14 car atop the Sprint Cup standing.
This week I like the guy who brings his rock-n-roll to a country show. That's right, the driver who could write the book on "How to Make Friends in Nashville", Kyle Busch. Let's face it, Busch is eager to get back in the spotlight for doing what he does well and that is winning races. While we're facing it, "Rowdy" looked awful breaking that Gibson Les Paul. Maybe that jinxed him for Sunday where he was equally atrocious and finished 22nd at the Pocono 500. The thing is with Kyle is that he doesn't stay bad for long and despite his lousy numbers at Michigan I think we'll see a different Kyle on Sunday. What better way to do that than to bring home a win?
Pick: Kyle Busch, No. 18, (2/1)
2009 Lifelock 400 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Richard Childress Racing's Reutimann moved from 13th to 11th in the standings and won the Coca-Cola 600 a few weeks ago. However, Reutimann has never done better than 14th at Michigan. You can't ignore the way he is clicking with his crew chief Rodney Childers; in his last three races Reutimann has one win, one pole and two top-three finishes. They play the fuel-mileage lottery and keep winning. Keep in mind that Michigan is considered a fuel-mileage track and that will definitely play well into RCR's hands. Despite racing well, you'll get another swell price this week as Reutimann is 75/1 to win at MIS. If you think there is absolutely no way he's winning the race a different future wager offering a great price is backing the 00 Toyota at 22/1 as a top-three finisher.
Pick: Dave Reutimann, No. 00, (75/1)
2009 Lifelock 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Tracking last week's odds on the Top-three finish race winner Stewart paid 3/1, Edwards paid 5/2 and third place finisher Dave Reutimann paid out a hefty 18/1. Thanks to Johnson running out of gas on the final lap Reutimann ended up cashing a top-three ticket. This week at MIS there are a few contenders who are worthy serious consideration for our Sunday afternoon V-chip sports investment. Of most NASCAR faithful are getting behind the Rousch Fenway Racing stable; specifically Edwards (6.6 avg. finish at MIS) and Kenseth (9.9 avg. finish at MIS). Certainly both are a threat to win let alone come in the top three at MIS. Jeff Gordon, while attractive at 5/2 has only come in the top-five once in 11 races. This week I like Mark Martin to represent. In 46 starts at MIS Martin has won four times and notched 28 top-ten finishes. Don't let last week's final standings fool you. Martin ran in the top-ten for most of the Pocono 500 but poor fuel management forced him into the pits. Martin's top-five caliber car finished 19th and dropped Martin from 12th to 13th in the Sprint Cup standings. This week Martin should bounce back strong while his team should learn from last week's mistakes. Welcome back to the Chase Old Man!
Pick: Mark Martin, No. 5, (4/1)
Sprint Cup Series Lifelock 400 - Odds for Top 3 Finish*
Sun, June 14th 12:30 p.m. Michigan International Speedway
A.J. Allmendinger 53/1
Bill Elliott 75/1
Bobby Labonte 60/1
Brian Vickers 11/2
Carl Edwards 3/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 9/1
Dave Blaney 75/1
David Gilliland 75/1
David Ragan 18/1
David Reutimann 22/1
David Stremme 60/1
Denny Hamlin 9/2
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/5
Jamie McMurray 15/1
Jeff Burton 15/1
Jeff Gordon 5/2
Jimmie Johnson 2/1
Joey Logano 37/1
Joe Nemechek 60/1
John Andretti 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 7/2
Kevin Harvick 18/1
Kurt Busch 7/2
Kyle Busch 2/1
Marcos Ambrose 54/1
Mark Martin 4/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Matt Kenseth 5/2
Max Papis 75/1
Michael Waltrip 53/1
Mike Skinner 75/1
Paul Menard 53/1
Reed Sorenson 53/1
Robby Gordon 53/1
Ryan Newman 4/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 53/1
Scott Speed 60/1
Sterling Marlin 60/1
Tony Raines 60/1
Tony Stewart 3/1
Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Lifelock 400*
Sun, June 14th 12:30 p.m. Michigan International Speedway
A.J. Allmendinger 175/1
Bill Elliott 250/1
Bobby Labonte 200/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 30/1
Dave Blaney 250/1
David Gilliland 250/1
David Ragan 60/1
David Reutimann 75/1
David Stremme 200/1
Denny Hamlin 17/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 13/2
Jamie McMurray 50/1
Jeff Burton 50/1
Jeff Gordon 9/1
Jimmie Johnson 7/1
Joey Logano 125/1
Joe Nemechek 200/1
John Andretti 200/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 12/1
Kevin Harvick 60/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Marcos Ambrose 180/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Martin Truex Jr. 60/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Max Papis 250/1
Michael Waltrip 180/1
Mike Skinner 250/1
Paul Menard 180/1
Reed Sorenson 180/1
Robby Gordon 180/1
Ryan Newman 15/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 180/1
Scott Speed 200/1
Sterling Marlin 200/1
Tony Raines 200/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog