NASCAR: Lenox Tools 301 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 06/26/2009
There are 10 races to go before the Chase for the Sprint Cup. By virtue of a second-place finish at Sonoma last week Tony Stewart extended his lead to 84 points over Jeff Gordon in the Sprint Cup standings as NASCAR heads to New Hampshire and the short, flat-track of Loudon Speedway for the Lenox Tools 301 this Sunday at 2:15 p.m. TNT will televise the event.
Who will win the the Lenox Tools 301?
Kurt Busch is the Lenox Tools 301 defending race champion; if you call a rain-shortened race with a gimpy "Blue Deuce" a win. Certainly if the race had continued last year Busch would have been sent to the pits for work on whatever was hanging off his car when NASCAR stopped the race. Thanks to the rain it gave Michael Waltrip an improbable second and J.J. Yeley third. This year the No. 2 car is the only Dodge in the Chase.
This year more rain seems imminent, as New England has been drenched all of June with cold, rainy weather. If qualifiers get rained out Tony Stewart and Jeff Gordon will pace the grid, which won't exactly thrill a lot of drivers since Stewart and Gordon are two of the best drivers at Loudon.
There is no doubt about it, but "Smoke" has had an inspired year. Just when you figure Stewart cannot continue his amazing inaugural run as driver-owner of Stewart-Haas racing, he does -- and on all the various tracks that NASCAR has to offer. In 2009 the Sprint Cup points' leader "Smoke" has one win, eight Top-5s and 12 Top-10s for an average season finish of 8.4 and has led eight races for 110 laps. At Loudon, however, Stewart has one pole, two wins, 10 Top-5s and 12 Top-10s. Stewart has led in 11 of 20 races for 936 laps in New Hampshire. Stewart finished 13th last June and eighth in September. Stewart has to be considered a top candidate to win on Sunday.
Currently second on the Sprint Cup leaderboard is Jeff Gordon, who finished this race in 11th place last year. However, remember Gordon was having a tough time last year with that newborn and wife in his trailer accompanying him to every race. This year Gordon kicked everyone out of the trailer and has had a resurgent year with one win, eight Top-5s and 11 Top-10s with an average season finish of 10.1 while leading nine races for 505 laps. At Loudon Gordon has always done well as he sports three poles, three wins, 12 Top-5s, and 15 Top-10s. Gordon has also led 17 of 28 races at Loudon for 1,141 laps.
This Sunday I like another short track specialist to win his first race of the season. Denny Hamlin currently has four Top-5s and six Top-10s and has led five races for a total of 513 laps but has yet to pass the waving checkers ahead of the grid. He'll have a great opportunity to do this on Sunday. At New Hampshire Hamlin has one win, two Top-5s and five Top-10s, but sports a very consistent 7.2 average finish at Loudon and has led three of six races for 51 laps. Keep in mind Hamlin has finished in the Top 15 every time he has raced at New Hampshire. Hamlin has done well at other short tracks like Martinsville, Richmond and Phoenix. Hamlin also won this race in 2007 so he knows how to handle the short, ill-banked temperamental track at New Hampshire. Hamlin is also coming off two Top-5 finishes in his last two races with a 3rd at the Lifelock 400 and a fifth at Infineon last week.
Pick! Denny Hamlin, No. 11, (8/1)
2009 Lenox Tools 301- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
I'm going really long for this Sunday's Lenox Tools 301 and will select Penske Championship Racing's Sam Hornish, Jr. Keep in mind Hornish has never won a Sprint Cup race, but anything can and will happen at Loudon. Hornish is currently 26th in the Sprint Cup standings and is out of the Chase this year. However, that won't stop him from trying to best the 46-car field. While Hornish won the Sprint Showdown during All-star Weekend, that didn't count toward the standings. Hornish's best recent finish was 10th-place at Pocono, but at Richmond, another short-track, Hornish managed to finish sixth. Perhaps Hornish's Bill Davis' Dodge can upset the field, but perhaps not. In either case, the No. 77 should be in the running for most of the race.
Pick! Sam Hornish, Jr., No. 77, (100/1)
2009 the Lenox Tools 301 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Third in the Sprint Cup points is none other than three-time Sprint Cup Champion Jimmie Johnson. In 2009 Johnson has two wins, seven Top-5s and 10 Top-10s. At Loudon Johnson holds two wins, four Top-5s and nine Top-10s with an average finish of 9.9 and he most notably finished ninth last June and improved on that with a second place finish at Loudon in September. Keep in mind that Johnson swept Loudon with two wins in 2003, but hasn't visited victory lane since. There is one X-factor for Johnson this Sunday -- he'll be driving a new chassis No. 543 this weekend. Even so, he has run well at New Hampshire in whatever chassis the Hendrick boys give him. While he might not win the race I have a hard time seeing him finishing out of the Top 3 on Sunday.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48. (8/5)
Sprint Cup Series - the Lenox Tools 301 Odds for Top 3 Finish*
Sun, Jun 28 2:15 p.m. New Hampshire Motor Speedway, NH
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brad Keselowski 9/1
Brian Vickers 12/1
Carl Edwards 3/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/2
Dave Blaney 30/1
David Gilliland 30/1
David Ragan 15/1
David Reutimann 18/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 12/5
Dexter Bean 60/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 3/1
Jamie McMurray 12/1
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 12/5
Jimmie Johnson 8/5
Joe Nemechek 30/1
Joey Logano 22/1
John Andretti 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 22/1
Kasey Kahne 6/1
Kevin Harvick 9/1
Kurt Busch 3/1
Kyle Busch 12/5
Marcos Ambrose 30/1
Mark Martin 7/2
Martin Truex Jr. 15/2
Matt Kenseth 11/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Mike Wallace 30/1
Patrick Carpentier 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Regan Smith 30/1
Robby Gordon 30/1
Ryan Newman 11/2
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Ted Christopher 60/1
Tony Raines 30/1
Tony Stewart 12/5
Sprint Cup Series Odds to win the Lenox Tools 301*
Sun, Jun 28 2:15 p.m. New Hampshire Motor Speedway, NH
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brad Keselowski 30/1
Brian Vickers 40/1
Carl Edwards 10/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 35/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 25/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 50/1
David Reutimann 60/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 8/1
Dexter Bean 200/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 10/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 8/1
Jimmie Johnson 11/2
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Joey Logano 75/1
John Andretti 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 75/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 10/1
Kyle Busch 8/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 12/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 18/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Wallace 100/1
Patrick Carpentier 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Regan Smith 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Ted Christopher 200/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 8/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog