Fresh off his win last week in Las Vegas, Kyle Busch and his No. 18 M&M's Toyota will try to win the Kobalt Tools 500 for the second consecutive year as NASCAR celebrates its 100th Sprint Cup race at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday at 2:15 p.m., televised by FOX.

One of the many things to look for this weekend is whether Stewart-Haas' Ryan Newman will win the pole. If he does he will set the record with the most poles at AMS. Between 2003-2005 Newman won six consecutive poles and won his seventh pole in only his 11th start at AMS. Newman has won 43 poles in his career. Owning the pole at AMS is all well and good, but when I'm investing in NASCAR on Sundays it is all about where the driver finishes and not where they start.

What has made this young season so exciting, in my mind, is that only five drivers who were in the Top 12 at this point last year are in the Top 12 this year. Michael Walltrip, No.55, currently 12th place in the standings, is in the Top 12 for the third consecutive week of the season while last year he was 34th in the standings after three races. This will most likely change this week, but it has made for an exciting start to a very long season.

Who will win the Kobalt Tools 500?

What happened to Carl Edwards? Wasn't this supposed to be the year he beats JJ for the Cup? Last week at LVMS Edwards finished 17th, in California seventh and at Daytona the No. 99 car finished a meager 18th place. Combined this is good enough to put him in ninth in the standings (better than Johnson's 18th), but he's returning to a track he won at last fall. Edwards is one of the best drivers in NASCAR at AMS. He has three wins in nine races and, according to Loop Data, has the second best rating, 107.4 -- just behind Johnson (the statistical leader with 112.9 rating). That said, I think this year Crew Chief Bob Osborne is still working out the kinks for Rousch Fenway Racing's best driver. Until I see more from the No. 99 I am going to pass backing on seeing the back flip this weekend.

Making his second appearance as my pick-to-win selection this year is four-time series champion Jeff Gordon in the No. 24 DuPont Chevrolet. Gordon is currently No. 1 on the leaderboard thanks to finishing sixth at Las Vegas, second in California and 13th at Daytona (if the rain had held off he would have finished within the Top 10). But Gordon has red-hot Richard Childress Racing's Clint Bowyer (who has managed to come in sixth place three of the past four races at AMS) a scant 18-points behind him for second.

Gordon, the once dominant NASCAR driver, has not won a race in 44 attempts and has not won a title since before the new points system went into effect. If there is ever a race that says you can come home again it's AMS, where Gordon started his illustrious career. In fact, there are a lot of things that point to Gordon winning on Sunday. He has the most restrictor plate wins of all active drivers, he's had a fabulous car his last three races this season, and he is great on intermediate tracks.

With my apologies to Newman, last year the pole-sitter was Jeff Gordon but Kyle Busch won the race. This year Newman might win his eighth pole but Gordon is my pick to win his first since Oct. 13, 2007 at Lowes Motor Speedway.

Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (7/1)

2009 Kobalt Tools 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

Last year at this race Home Depot celebrated 10 years sponsoring Joe Gibbs Racing's No. 20 car with Tony Stewart behind the wheel. I guess this year the home improvement powerhouse will celebrate it's first year sponsoring the No. 20 car with young gun (or should I say adolescent?), and a considerably lighter Joey Logano. He won his first Nationwide race last year, had his Sprint Cup debut last September in New Hampshire, is the reigning Busch East Series Champion, and now is in his first full year on the Sprint Cup circuit replacing the driver known as Smoke.

In Logano's last two races he has improved remarkably, finishing 26th in California two weeks ago and 13th last week at LVMS. Crew Chief Greg Zipadelli did say a few weeks ago that JGR was shooting for Top 25s to start the season. It appears that Logano has been in that neighborhood the last two weeks and if there is no better way of erasing the memory of a former driver like winning at your sponsor's home track.

Pick! Joey Logano, No. 20, (22/1)

2009 Kobalt Tools 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

There is exactly one reason I have Johnson to finish in the Top 3 rather than to win this race; because his car owner, Jeff Gordon, will win. I love Johnson in this spot, despite the relatively lousy odds. Consider this; in the past five races at AMS JJ has come in the Top 3 four times. Last year was the anomaly as the No. 48 came in 13th. Of those five Top 3s JJ has won twice and finished second twice. If you go back to 2003, though, in 11 races Johnson has finished in the Top 3 seven times while also finishing fourth and sixth in that same time span.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (5/4)

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Kobalt Tools 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway, GA - 03/08/09

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 9/1
Carl Edwards 7/5
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11/2
David Ragan 9/1
David Reutimann 22/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 6/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 9/4
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 9/1
Jeff Gordon 2/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/4
Joey Logano 22/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 30/1
Kasey Kahne 10/1
Kevin Harvick 9/1
Kurt Busch 17/4
Kyle Busch 7/4
Mark Martin 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 18/1
Matt Kenseth 9/4
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Tony Stewart 11/2
Field (Any Other Driver) 9/1

Odds to win the Kobalt Tools 500
Atlanta Motor Speedway, GA - 03/08/09

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 30/1
Carl Edwards 5/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 35/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 16/1
David Ragan 30/1
David Reutimann 75/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 20/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 30/1
Jeff Gordon 7/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joey Logano 75/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 100/1
Kasey Kahne 35/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 6/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 60/1
Matt Kenseth 8/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 30/1