A 10th-place finish last week at Pocono kept Tony Stewart in first place --197 points in front of challenger Jimmie Johnson in NASCAR's Sprint Cup Series with five races to go until the Chase for the Sprint Cup as NSCS heads to New York's Finger Lakes region for the circuit's second road-course of the season, the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen on Sunday at 1 p.m.  

Gamblers should note that with Denny Hamlin's win last week there have been 12 different drivers to win races in 2009; this tied 2008's all-time record.  While the Glen's defending champion, Kyle Busch, won this race last as the pole-sitter.

Who will win the 2009 Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen?

The Sprint Cup points reset starts in September in New Hampshire but there is no time like the present for Kyle Busch to secure his Chase spot by doing well this Sunday at Watkins Glen. Currently, Busch is on the bubble at 13th (having improved one spot after Pocono last week).  He'll need to make up 101 points in the next five races to do so, but if he does, Kyle will be one of the leaders since he'll claim 30 bonus points for his three Sprint Cup wins this season. But he'll have to make the Chase and at the Glen he has a great opportunity to close the gap.  I think Busch still has some issues to overcome but I think it is realistic that we'll see Kyle definitely in the Top 10 and perhaps even the Top 5 when the race is finished.

Other drivers I'd keep an eye on are Jeff Gordon and Stewart. There is a reason why these two drivers are in the Top 3 in the NSCS standings and in contention to win each and every week. Stewart definitely has the hottest car right now and at 7/2 it might make sense as a hedge bet either to win or to finish in the Top 3. 

The driver I like to win on Sunday, however, is the former F/1 driver who has seemed to find his groove over the past two weeks. Of course I am talking about the Chevy Target No. 42 car and Juan Pablo Montoya. JPM has come on strong in the last two races and has to be confident coming into Watkins Glen. Montoya finished second last week at Pocono and should have won the Brickyard 400 had it not been for a speeding penalty on pit road. It seems like JPM has figured out the ovals as well as the road courses.


Now Montoya rolls into The Glen having moved up two spots to eighth place in the NSCS standings. In two starts on the New York road course JPM has one Top-5 finish. Given JPM's open wheel background you have to give him serious consideration whenever NASCAR goes out-of-the-oval. Watkins Glen couldn't come at a better time for JPM, who is trying to secure a spot in the Sprint Cup Chase. Of course, a lot will depend upon pit-position-strategy and where on the grid he starts, but JPM always qualifies well on the road courses. He's won one pole this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win another pole, and perhaps another victory. But, if not, I can't see how JPM finishes out of the Top 3 on Sunday.

Pick! Juan Pablo Montoya, No.  (13/2)

2009 Heluva Good!- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special at the Glen

Kevin Harvick, who hasn't done much since he won the Bud Shootout the first race of the season, finds his Shell/Penzoil Chevy in 22nd place in the standings and the grim reality is that he won't make the Chase this year. It would be the first time in four consecutive seasons that has happened but he is -503 points from Greg Biffle's 12th and final spot.  However, despite is down season this year, Harvick has been resurgent in his past four races. Two weeks ago at Indianapolis he managed a sixth-place finish, his first Top 10 in 15 races and third of the season. To put it in perspective last year Harvick had 19 Top-10s. Last week Harvick finished in 12th place at Pocono and gained a spot in the NSCS standings. Harvick has raced at the Glen eight times and sports five Top-10 finishes and won in 2006. Loop Data is another factor that points to a favorable finish for Harvick. At the Glen Harvick is the fifth best rated driver with a 98.4 and is fourth in average running position at 11.6. But the one statistic that really pops out is that Harvick is third on the list for fastest laps run at the Glen which makes him my Lucky Dog Long Odds pick. 

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29, (18/1)

2009 Heluva Good!- Odds for Top 3 Finish at the Glen


Marcos Ambrose almost notched his second consecutive Top-10 finish last week at Pocono but got knocked out of the race on lap 175 as David Reutimann's car spun out of control and knocked the 47 car into the wall near pit-row and Ambrose ended his day in 34th place. Despite the disappointing way he finished the race Ambrose is currently in 18th place and going into the Glen has a good chance of moving up in the standings after Sunday as he is one of the "road course specialists." Last year Ambrose came into Watkins Glen and won his first Nationwide Series race and the very next day followed it up with a third place finish in the Sprint Cup race.  I wouldn't be surprised if Ambrose improves on last year's third place finish at the Glen. 

Pick! Marcos Ambrose, No. 47, (9/5)

Odds to win the Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen*
Sun, Aug. 9, 2009 1:00 p.m. Watkins Glen, NY

A.J. Allmendinger 50/1 
Brian Vickers 75/1 
Carl Edwards 20/1 
Casey Mears 150/1 
Clint Bowyer 40/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 40/1 
David Ragan 100/1 
David Reutimann 75/1 
Denny Hamlin 15/1 
Elliott Sadler 150/1 
Greg Biffle 40/1 
Jamie McMurray 30/1 
Jeff Burton 50/1 
Jeff Gordon 11/2 
Jimmie Johnson 18/1 
Joey Logano 75/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 13/2 
Kasey Kahne 25/1 
Kevin Harvick 18/1 
Kurt Busch 15/1 
Kyle Busch 7/1 
Marcos Ambrose 6/1 
Mark Martin 18/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 55/1 
Matt Kenseth 45/1 
Max Papis 100/1 
Patrick Carpentier 50/1 
Robby Gordon 18/1 
Ron Fellows 30/1 
Ryan Newman 28/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Scott Speed 150/1 
Tony Stewart 7/2 
Field (Any Other Driver) 20/1 

Odds to Finish in the Top-3  Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips at the Glen*
Sun, Aug. 9, 2009 1:00 p.m. Watkins Glen, NY

A.J. Allmendinger 15/1 
Brian Vickers 22/1 
Carl Edwards 6/1 
Casey Mears 45/1 
Clint Bowyer 12/1  
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1 
David Ragan 30/1 
David Reutimann 22/1 
Denny Hamlin 9/2  
Elliott Sadler 45/1 
Greg Biffle 12/1 
Jamie McMurray 9/1 
Jeff Burton 15/1 
Jeff Gordon 13/8 
Jimmie Johnson 11/2 
Joey Logano 22/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 2/1 
Kasey Kahne 15/2 
Kevin Harvick 11/2 
Kurt Busch 9/2 
Kyle Busch 21/10 
Marcos Ambrose 9/5 
Mark Martin 11/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 17/1 
Matt Kenseth 14/1 
Max Papis 30/1 
Patrick Carpentier 15/1 
Robby Gordon 11/2 
Ron Fellows 9/1 
Ryan Newman 17/2 
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Scott Speed 45/1 
Tony Stewart 21/20 
Field (Any Other Driver) 5/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog