NASCAR: Goody's 500 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 03/27/2009
Kyle Busch tasted victory for the second time in three races, winning the Food City 500 last weekend. However, Jeff Gordon, who finished fourth in Thunder Valley, increased his points lead in the Sprint Cup standings to 76 points over Kurt Busch as NASCAR heads to Virginia and historic Martinsville Speedway Sunday, March 29 at 2:15 p.m. for the Goody's Fast Pain Relief 500.
Martinsville Speedway opened in 1947 and is the oldest (and shortest) active track in NASCAR. The Perfect Paperclip boasts 800-foot-straights, slightly-banked 12-degree turns, and a wild, trading-paint, push-and-drag experience that should produce some of the most exciting racing of this season. And a few spectacular wrecks as well.
Who will win the Goody's 500?
Between Gordon and Jimmie Johnson Hendrick Motorsports has won nine of the last 12 races at Martinsville and HMS is a good bet to put a driver in the winner's circle once again after Denny Hamlin won this race last year (and ended JJ's three consecutive wins at Martinsville). The only other active non-HMS driver to win at Martinsville since 2002 is Tony Stewart, who won the spring race in 2006.
Johnson, Gordon and Hamlin are undeniably the favorites to win this weekend and most likely we'll see one of these three drivers in the winner's circle. It's no coincidence that Hamlin, Johnson, and Gordon finished second, third and fourth, respectively, at Bristol. They are flat track experts who know exactly when to pick their spots to brake, chase, pass and lead.
Like Bristol at Martinsville, qualifying gives a good indication how a car will do in the race on Sunday. Investors in this weekend's Sprint Cup race should keep in mind that it's very likely that rain will wash out qualifiers, which will put Gordon on the pole. While Gordon was the pole-sitter last year Denny Hamlin is the defending race champion and will look to continue his successes on short tacks as well as build upon his second place last week at Bristol.
Three-time Sprint Cup Champion Johnson has started this year slowly, but last weekend at Bristol when he finished third it was apparent that Johnson is picking up the pace as he heads into his second best track on the circuit (he is only slightly better at Lowes). He has won five times at Martinsville and has placed in the Top 10 in 13 of 14 races. In the past four races at Martinsville Johnson has earned 740 points! I think the odds are very good that HMS puts one of their four very capable drivers in the winner's circle on Sunday and for my money it will be the No. 48 car and the first win of the season for HMS as well as Chevrolet.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (4/1)
2009 Goody's 500- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
It is gut check time for Dale Earnhardt, Jr. While Junior hasn't had the worst season in the world there are rumors that HMS is unhappy with the No. 88 car and that Junior had better start putting in some quality races or he might be out of a ride. Junior's best finish of the year was a race that didn't really count in the Sprint Cup and that was the Gatorade Duel No. 2 back in February. Junior finished 10th at the Shelby 427 for his best finish of the season, and that was impressive since he began the race 31st. Junior finished 14th after starting 34th at last week's Food City 500, but given his pedigree HMS and the fans expect a lot more from the Intimidator's son. Junior has been provided all the tools to win: a premier team, a good crew chief, and fabulous sponsorship behind him, so it's not hard to wonder why Junior's wins have been few and far between. While he has never won in Virginia, Martinsville is Junior's fifth-best track with an average finish of 13.6, but he does have eight Top-5 finishes and 10 Top-10s, which makes him my lucky-dog long odds pick to win Martinsville on Sunday.
Pick! Dale Earnhardt, Jr. No.88, (12/1)
2009 Goody's 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
If Johnson doesn't win on Sunday Gordon will. I like Johnson and Gordon to finish the Goody's 500 in first and second place. So you can look at this play as a hedge bet against Johnson coming in second or third to Gordon and Hamlin. The fact they could both finish in the Top 3 is not beyond the realm of possibility either and you could do worse backing both (Hamlin is set at 17/10 to come in the Top 3) to finish in the Top 3. I like the point's leader in this race due to the fact that there is an excellent chance the No. 24 car will start from the pole and will just need to run in front for the 262 miles. Last year Gordon finished the race in second after starting from the pole and while the winless streak could extend to 47 races I don't see how Gordon does not finish in the Top 3 on Sunday.
Pick! Jeff Gordon, No. 24, (7/5)
Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Goody's 500
Martinsville Speedway March 29 2:15 p.m.
A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Carl Edwards 7/2
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 7/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 4/1
David Ragan 16/1
David Reutimann 20/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 17/10
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 8/1
Jamie McMurray 6/1
Jeff Burton 6/1
Jeff Gordon 7/5
Jimmie Johnson 23/20
Joey Logano 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1
Kasey Kahne 6/1
Kevin Harvick 4/1
Kurt Busch 7/2
Kyle Busch 3/2
Mark Martin 6/1
Martin Truex Jr. 25/1
Matt Kenseth 11/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Ryan Newman 7/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Speed30/1
Tony Stewart 11/2
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Goody's 500
Martinsville Speedway, VA
A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Bobby Labonte 200/1
Brian Vickers 60/1
Carl Edwards 15/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12/1
David Ragan 55/1
David Reutimann 50/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 5/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 25/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 25/1
Jeff Gordon 5/1
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Joey Logano 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Kasey Kahne 20/1
Kevin Harvick 15/1
Kurt Busch 15/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Mark Martin 20/1
Martin Truex Jr. 75/1
Matt Kenseth 25/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Ryan Newman 30/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Tony Stewart 18/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
*Odds courtesy of Bodog