Golf Betting: British Open Without Tiger Woods
by Matt Severance - 07/15/2009
We've had an occasional email here at Doc's asking if people can bet somewhere on golf tournaments but without including Tiger Woods in any of the odds. Because, really, what fun is it to bet on Tiger when he offers no return on your investment?
Well, it so happens that WagerWeb offers up Tiger-free props during any major tournament, such as this weekend's British Open at Turnberry. Let's take a look at the two options, and I'll give my recommendations.
Odds to win without Tiger Woods (top 10 favorites; if any of these guys finishes second to Tiger, for example, it pays):
Sergio Garcia +1200
Jim Furyk +1600
Padraig Harrington +1600
Rory McIlroy +1600
Ernie Els +2200
Henrik Stenson +2200
Hunter Mahan +2200
Ian Poulter +2200
Lee Westwood +2200
Paul Casey +2200
It's no surprise that Sergio, despite not having won a major, is the non-Tiger favorite this week. Since 2001, the Spaniard has finished in the top 10 of the Open Championship six times, including a loss in a playoff to Padraig Harrington at Carnoustie two years ago when Sergio should have won on the 72nd hole.
"I've always said it, that if I could choose to win just one major then it would be the Open," said Garcia, who is 0-for-40 in majors since turning pro.
Garcia hasn't been a huge factor on the U.S. tour this year with just one Top-10 finish in 10 events, that coming at Bethpage Black in the U.S. Open. On the European Tour, Sergio won the first event of the year and has finished in the top 15 four other times.
As for Harrington, he has been in a major slump this year as he tries for a third Claret Jug in a row. He seems vastly overpriced at +1600. This year, Harrington has made just eight cuts in 16 events worldwide, with his last Top 10 coming in January at the Abu Dhabi Championship.
However, the Irishman did win the Irish PGA Championship last week, which is basically a club pro championship unsanctioned by any major tour. Two years ago, Harrington won the Irish PGA in a playoff, then went on to beat Garcia at the Open in a playoff. Last year, he won the Irish PGA by four strokes, then went on to win the Open by four strokes. That sounds like a trend, but I'd still steer clear.
I would argue the best value is Paul Casey at +2200. The world No. 3 doesn't get much respect despite three tournament wins worldwide this year (one on the U.S. tour). Only Tiger has as many.
Casey is the highest-ranked British player entering the British Open since Colin Montgomerie went into the 1996 Open as No. 2 in the world - and we all know his luck at majors. Casey, however, tied for seventh at the British Open last year and has made the cut in each of the past three years. Casey also sat out a tournament last week just to prepare for Turnberry.
I think he can do what Andy Murray couldn't at Wimbledon - bring home a title for Great Britain.
Top American finisher without Tiger Woods (top-10 favorites):
Jim Furyk +480
Hunter Mahan +600
Steve Stricker +680
Anthony Kim +770
Ben Curtis +1200
Kenny Perry +1200
Nick Watney +1200
Sean O'Hair +1400
Zach Johnson +1500
Justin Leonard +1600
Furyk also was the easy call as the favorite in this group. He has seven Top-10 finishes on the PGA Tour and has finished in the Top 10 of the British Open five times, including fifth last year. In fact, he hasn't finished worse than T12 in the past three Opens.
Turnberry isn't one of those courses where you need to drive it super long, so that also benefits Furyk, a straight but short driver.
Another straight hitter with perhaps the best value is Leonard at +1600 on WagerWeb. He missed the cut at the U.S. Open, but that was a bomber's course. Leonard has three Top-5 finishes this year and won this tournament in 1997. He finished T16 last year.
Curtis might also be worth a look at +1200. The 2003 winner of the Open has finished in the Top 10 the past two years as well. Curtis is also coming off his best finish of the season on the PGA Tour, a T4 at the Travelers Championship.
Kim is coming on as of late and was in contention last year but is overvalued at +770.
No one is hotter on the PGA Tour than Stricker (two wins in past four starts), and he has Top-10 finishes the past two years at the British Open. But will staying in the U.S. and winning the John Deere Classic and then having to fly overseas late Sunday/early Monday affect his preparation?