NFL Free Prop Predictions - Week 15
by Jay Horne - 12/18/2009
We kicked off the month of December with a bang last week posting a perfect 3-0 mark in our weekly prop bets action. After taking Week 13 off, we hit on a couple of winners and look to stay hot with just three weeks left in the regular season. There are a ton of big games this week, including a Saturday night special as the Dallas Cowboys try to foil the December slump and take down the undefeated New Orleans Saints. That game along with others holds huge postseason implications and we have targeted a few of those interesting matchups in our side action for the upcoming week of football. All of these early betting lines can be found at Sportsbook.com
Prop Bet No. 1 - Brandon Marshall total receptions vs. Oakland Raiders
Over 6 (-130)
Under 6 (+120)
Broncos WR Brandon Marshall exploded last week in one of the biggest performances from a wide receiver in the NFL this season, catching 21 passes for 200 yards and two touchdowns. The Broncos now go to war with the Oakland Raiders this weekend and you can expect the Raiders defense will give Marshall plenty of attention. The oddsmakers expect Marshall to catch a good bit of passes again this week, but that just may not be the case. In fact, Marshall has only caught seven or more passes in just four of his 13 games this season. The reason he roamed freely last week was thanks to a soft Colts zone coverage that allowed Marshall to find holes and catch the football. Raiders CB Nnamdi Asomugha will match-up against Marshall and he is one of the top corners in the AFC that also earned Pro Bowl trip just a season ago. Not only will Asomugha make things much tougher, but the Raiders will bring some safety help to make sure that Marshall is not the guy to beat them. Do not expect Marshall to have another huge game and take advantage of the profitable juice.
Pick - Under 6
Prop Bet No. 2 Dallas Cowboys total points vs. New Orleans Saints
Over 23.5 (-115)
Under 23.5 (-115)
The Dallas Cowboys have lost two straight games and hold just a 1-5 record in their last six games in December. However with so much buzz around the expected late season collapse, I expect Dallas to give a valiant effort Saturday night with their postseason chances on the line. Also, the Saints have just barely cruised by a pair of inferior teams like Washington and Atlanta while giving up 53 points during those two contests. The Saints secondary has shown glimpses of where they were a year ago, giving up 300 yards on average during the past three contests. Also, QB Tony Romo has not been given much credit over the course of the past few weeks, but he is throwing the ball well. In fact, Romo has averaged 316 yards over the past three games and during that stretch has thrown seven touchdowns without a single interception. All of those combinations coming together should allow the Cowboys to put things together and at least challenge the Saints by putting some points on the scoreboard.
Pick - Over 23.5
Prop Bet No. 3 - Randy Moss total receiving yards vs. Buffalo Bills
Over 75 (-125)
Under 75 (-110)
Patriots wide receiver Randy Moss has received a lot of unnecessary criticism for apparently showing a lack of effort against Panthers last week. Moss caught just one pass for 16 yards while Wes Welker stole the show for the second straight week with 10 grabs and 100-plus receiving yards. However, with so much attention on Moss for his disappointing performance, expect the Patriots offense to get him involved early and often this week against the Bills. The last two games following just one catch Moss has posted some big time numbers, catching well over 100 yards per game with three touchdowns. Both Coach Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady have come to their star player's defense this week. Moss caught 12 passes for 141 yards against Buffalo earlier this year in the opener and the Patriots will definitely look to utilize him again this week perhaps with some extra motivation.
Pick - Over 75
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