According to legend, early in the week is the time when professional bettors make some of their moves - the other most important time is just prior to kickoff - and they tear apart the ripe lines from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants. For the last two years I have tracked the opening steam movements of lines in both college football and the NFL. The idea was to see if the "sharp" money was really that, or if the idea of trailing these severe early line movements was merely a myth. Well, I'm glad to say that we are back at it this season and ready to build on last year's research.

Here is the basic methodology. If a line starts as Penn State (-1) and moves to Penn State (-4.5) then we're going to track Penn State as our side, because the Lions are getting all of the money and driving the spread up. If the line starts as Penn State (-4) and then moves to Penn State (-1) we're going to track the opponent because they are taking the heavy action and it's moving the line lower.

I have not nailed down a specific movement - either passed on percentage of the spread changed or overall points changed - so I have to admit that my research is a little unscientific and based a bit on "feel". However, having done this as much as I have I would have to say that I have an eye for the odd movements.

That said, two years ago the "sharp" money went just 20-30 for the season and we had a solid fade system. But last year I think I opened the parameters up way too much and our tracked teams went 76-69, which was not statistically significant. This year I want to try to tighten it up and keep the total tracked plays somewhere in the range of 70-90 for the season.

Last week the college teams we tracked went just 2-4 against the spread while the NFL teams went 2-1. For the season, the heavy line moves are just 5-9 ATS in college and 7-10 ATS overall.

Here is this week's action:

East Carolina at North Carolina

Open: UNC -10.0
Current: UNC -7.0
Tracking: ECU

East Carolina may still be living off of last year's upsets of Virginia Tech and West Virginia. They lost in Morgantown last week as six-point underdogs in a revenge game and now they continue their gauntlet with a trip up to Chapel Hill. North Carolina is having trouble moving the ball and scoring points. So if this game is played in the 20s then the sharp action has staked a clear position that anything over one score is too much to give a team that could win this in-state rivalry game outright.

Connecticut at Baylor

Open: Baylor -7.0
Current: Baylor -10.0
Tracking: Baylor

There is a lot of love being thrown Baylor's way and the books actually may need a way to slow down their 9-4 ATS run dating back through last year. The Bears had an extra week to prepare and Connecticut is coming off a really deflating home loss to North Carolina. Baylor easily covered in Storrs last year and were stopped on fourth down late as they tried to go for the outright win. Baylor has revenge and has had two weeks to prep.

Middle Tennessee State at Maryland

Open: Maryland -10.0
Current: Maryland -6.0
Tracking: MTSU

Maryland got rocked out at Cal to start the season and then posted an uninspiring 38-35 win over James Madison last week. But Middle Tennessee State is coming off a blowout in at home in a rivalry game against Memphis. Maryland does have games against Rutgers and Clemson on the horizon. But are they looking past MTSU?

Nevada at Colorado (5 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
Open: Colorado State -1.5
Current: Nevada -3.0
Tracking: Nevada

Nevada has had two weeks to stew over their blowout loss at Notre Dame in Week 1. But Colorado State has built some decent mojo with a nice rivalry upset at Colorado and then a tight win at home against Weber State. Nevada is 0-5 all-time in Fort Collins and has been outscored by an average of 45-20 in those five games. Nevada won the last matchup in 2006 and is considered the sharper team here. But I think this is an awful generous movement. Colorado State was 4-0 ATS as a home dog last year.

Bowling Green at Marshall (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 19)
Open: 'Pick'
Current: Bowling Green -3.0
Tracking: Bowling Green

It makes a lot of sense that all of the money is on Bowling Green here. The Falcons are 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings and they are a stunning 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games. Also, Marshall is a terrible 3-13 ATS in nonconference games and the Thundering Herd are coming off a 42-point ass-kicking in Blacksburg.

Cincinnati at Oregon State

Open: Oregon State -3.5
Current: 'Pick'
Tracking: Cincinnati

Cincinnati has won its first two games by a combined score of 117-18 so clearly the Bearcats are going to be taking a lot of action here. But I feel this is a significant move against a quality Pac-10 opponent with revenge from a 2007 beat down.

Pittsburgh at Chicago (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
Open: Pittsburgh -1.5
Current: Pittsburgh -3.0
Tracking: Pittsburgh

I think that the biggest reaction in this game was to the news that Brian Urlacher's season is over. The Bears will certainly miss their defensive heart and soul but it's also odd to see such a significant move due to a defensive injury.

Cleveland vs. Denver (4 p.m., Sunday, Sept. 20)
Open: 41.5
Current: 37.5
Tracking: 'Under'

These teams combined for just 32 points last week and neither offense looked even close to being sharp. Cleveland's offense just scored its first touchdown in seven games. Denver went three-and-out on five of its first eight series and their only touchdown was on a fluke, tipped Hail Mary. Cleveland is 4-7-1 against the total on the road. These teams combined for a 34-30 barn burner last November but it's clear the sharps aren't expecting the same result this time around.

Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.