According to legend, early in the week is the time when professional bettors make some of their moves - the other most important time is just prior to kickoff - and they tear apart the ripe lines from the Las Vegas Sports Consultants. For the last two years I have tracked the opening steam movements of lines in both college football and the NFL. The idea was to see if the "sharp" money was really that, or if the idea of trailing these severe early line movements was merely a myth. Well, I'm glad to say that we are back at it this season and ready to build on last year's research.

Here is the basic methodology. If a line starts as Penn State (-1) and moves to Penn State (-4.5) then we're going to track Penn State as our side, because the Lions are getting all of the money and driving the spread up. If the line starts as Penn State (-4) and then moves to Penn State (-1) we're going to track the opponent because they are taking the heavy action and it's moving the line lower.

I have not nailed down a specific movement - either passed on percentage of the spread changed or overall points changed - so I have to admit that my research is a little unscientific and based a bit on "feel". However, having done this as much as I have I would have to say that I have an eye for the odd movements.

That said, two years ago the "sharp" money went just 20-30 for the season and we had a solid fade system. But last year I think I opened the parameters up way too much and our tracked teams went 76-69, which was not statistically significant. This year I want to try to tighten it up and keep the total tracked plays somewhere in the range of 70-90 for the season.

After a rare profitable week for the college early line movements two weekends ago, it was back to normal last Saturday. The NCAA early line movements went just 2-3 ATS while the NFL sharp moves had another strong performance at 3-1 ATS. This season the college early line movements are just 16-26 ATS while the NFL moves are a solid 13-7-1 ATS. Overall, the early big movers are just 29-33-1 ATS.

Here is this week's action:

Florida State at North Carolina (7:45 p.m., Thursday, Oct. 15)
Open: 'Pick'
Current: North Carolina -2.5
Tracking: North Carolina

Thursday nights have been chalky the last two weeks, with the road favorites coming through (if only because I bet against them) after a strong run (13-2-1 ATS) by the Thursday night dogs. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings and UNC has been an awful favorite over the last several years. This is actually the first meeting since 2004 between these groups and a rare primetime spot for UNC.

Maryland at Duke (1:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 17)
Open: Duke -8.0
Current: Duke -5.0
Tracking: Maryland

Which is more bizarre: that Duke opened as more than a touchdown favorite or that there is heavy money coming down on Maryland? Like the FSU-UNC game, these clubs haven't met since 2004. These are two of the least experienced teams in the ACC and thus two of the least predictable. Duke is just 7-17 ATS at home but they are on a 3-1 ATS run and have played a more formidable schedule.

Louisiana Tech at Utah State (3 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 17)
Open: Louisiana Tech -2.0
Current: Utah State -1.0
Tracking: Utah State

This is our only "crossover" line of the week, where the favorite in the game has shifted. The host Aggies are 8-2-1 ATS overall and do have revenge for a loss (a game in which they covered) at La. Tech last year. Tech has won all four meetings this decade and are coming off a peak performance (45-7) against New Mexico. But Utah State nearly sprung the upset against Nevada last week and although they are losing they have been a pesky bunch. A 1-5 team is favored; that has to tell you something.

Oregon at Washington (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 17)
Open: Oregon -5.5
Current: Oregon -10.0
Tracking: Oregon

This is a lot of points for a road team to be laying out in a rivalry game. But Oregon has had two weeks to prep and Washington is coming off yet another tense, nerve-wracking finish. How much could the Huskies have left in the tank? Oregon has won five straight, including bombing Cal and manhandling UCLA on the road. Oregon is 5-0 SU and ATS in this series (the favorite has covered eight of nine) with the average win by around 25 points. One quirk to this rivalry: four of the last five meetings have been in Autzen.

Idaho at Nevada (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 17)
Open: Nevada -11.0
Current: Nevada -15.0
Tracking: Nevada

All the Vandals have done is cover all seven of their games this year and 10 of 11 games dating back to last year. Yet they are getting zero respect this week against the Wolfpack. Part of that comes from four straight Nevada wins by an average of 34 points. There is clearly something that is karmically clicking for Idaho this season. And the Vandals actually beat the same Colorado State team that railed Nevada by 15.

San Diego at Kansas City (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 18)
Open: San Diego -6.0
Current: San Diego -4.5
Tracking: Kansas City

Hey, the Chiefs win one game and all of a sudden they are getting love? San Diego looked like hell on Monday night and are now in a perfect letdown spot, on the road, against a division rival, and laying points against a team that has been surprisingly spry. Let's think about this: other than a loss to Oakland, Kansas City has had to face Dallas, the Giants, the Eagles and the Ravens. That's a tough draw. They might be up to the challenge of the Chargers in this spot.

Atlanta at Dallas (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 18)
Open: 44.0
Current: 47.0
Tracking: 'Over'

I'm wondering if this line has something to do with Atlanta's loss of Brian Williams, their main playmaker in the secondary. I'm sure that's not the only driving force here - a lot of points left off the board against Chicago last week has something to do with it - but it should be a factor. However, the 'under' is 38-16-1 in Atlanta's last 55 road games.

New York Jets at Oakland (4 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 18)
Open: New York -7.5
Current: New York -6.0
Tracking: Oakland

Just like with Kansas City - what's going on? Two weeks ago the Raiders were getting absolutely wasted by the New York Giants. This week they are taking the action and look like they're ready to sneak and bite the New York Jets. However, as long as JaMarcus Russell is still at the helm I don't know how anyone could line up to throw bills down on the Raiders.

Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.