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2025 MLB Cy Young Award Odds and Predictions for AL and NL

by Joey House - 4/11/2025

MLB Cy Young Award odds and predictions for AL and NL Tarik Skubal Detroit Tigers

The "Boys of Summer" are two weeks into their 162-game grind, and the Cy Young Award race is shaping up to be an exciting affair. The American League has already seen the preseason favorite knocked off his perch. Even though the National League has maintained the pecking order of the first two pitchers, there have been massive odds shifts in the remainder of the field. Of course, you can rely on Doc's Sports to observe and study all the changes to give you the inside scoop to win your longshot season-long futures bets.

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Importance of the Preseason Rankings and a Good Start

Unlike college athletics, where preseason rankings and polls can significantly shape the course of a season, professional athletic awards are decided by statistics, for the most part. Half of the eight Cy Young winners in the past four seasons were not in the top 20 of lowest odds. In 2023, Gerrit Cole had the 4th-lowest odds in the American League before finally claiming his first elusive Cy Young. The following closest preseason odds to win was last year when +1000 Tarik Skubal won the American League's award. A preseason favorite hasn't picked up this award since Jacob deGrom won his second consecutive award in 2019 as a +350 Opening Day favorite.

There's a saying about poker tournaments: "You can't win the tournament on the first day, but you can sure lose it." However, the same logic doesn't always apply to the Cy Young race. Last year, Chris Sale started 1-1 with a 4.58 ERA through his first three starts. The season before, the Padres' Blake Snell was even worse, with an 0-2 record and a 6.92 ERA. So, if you took some of the 2025 early season chalk, like Chris Sale (+1100) or Dylan Cease (+2500), or Zac Gallen (+2500), don't rip up your ticket just yet, even though their ERAs are 6.75, 7.98, and 5.28, respectively.

American League Preseason Odds/ Current Odds

Detroit Tigers: Tarik Skubal +350/+450

Boston Red Sox: Garrett Crochet +360/+300

Kansas City Royals: Cole Ragans +850/+850

Seattle Mariners: Logan Gilbert +1100/800

Texas Rangers: Jacob deGrom +1400/+1200

Minnesota Twins: Pablo Lopez +1600/+2000

Houston Astros: Hunter Brown +2000/+2200

Houston Astros: Framber Valdez +2000/+3000

Tarik Skubal (Detroit): 1-2 W/L, 3.78 ERA, 3 starts, 16.2 innings, 16 hits, 7 runs (7 earned), 3 homers allowed, 4 walks, 16 strikeouts, 1.20 WHIP

Skubal, the preseason favorite for the AL Award, has been passed by his closest competitor, Boston's Garrett Crochet. Skubal hasn't been bad, per se, but his 1-2 win-loss record and 3.78 ERA are the worst among the top eight contenders. Moreover, his advanced analytics place him at the bottom of this elite group. The one attribute he does possess that should help him make up ground in the other categories is his blazing fastball, which averages 97.6 mph, the fourth-fastest in the major leagues.

Max Fried (NY Yankees): 2-0 W/L, 1.56 ERA, 3 starts, 17.1 innings, 18 hits, 7 runs (3 earned), 1 home run, 3 walks, 21 strikeouts, 1.21 WHIP

Fried, the Yankees big off-season pitching acquisition, has made himself at home in the "Big Apple." After eight successful seasons with the Braves, where he made 2 All-Star appearances, a second-place finish in the 2022 NL Cy Young race, and helped Atlanta to win the 2021 World Series, Fried landed in arguably the biggest baseball market in the world. His first outing wasn't terrific, but it didn't need to be, as the Yankees demolished the Brewers 20-9. His next two outings showed why New York spent $218 million over eight years. He gave up one run (earned) with six hits against six strikeouts against Pittsburgh and then scattered five hits over seven shutout innings against Detroit while also punching out 11 Tigers' batters. Fried's odds, which started at +2500 before the season, have already dropped to +2000. His biggest weakness is the "Kershaw Syndrome." Like Clayton's well-documented struggles in the postseason, Fried has been a Jekyll and Hyde: lights out during the regular season and barely serviceable in the playoffs, with a 2-5 record and 5.10 ERA. The two games that Fried won came in the 2021 postseason when the Braves won their last World Series title. The +2000 odds on Fried currently are attractive, and the Yankees look to be a lock for the playoffs. You'll just have to gamble on how Fried will perform in October and early November.

National League Preseason Odds/ Current Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates: Paul Skenes +200/+145

Philadelphia Phillies: Zack Wheeler +600/+550

Los Angeles Dodgers: Blake Snell +1000/+4200

Arizona Diamondbacks: Corbin Burnes +1500/+3000

Atlanta Braves: Chris Sale +1800/+2500

Los Angeles Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto +1800/+2000

San Diego Padres: Michael King +2000/+3600

Los Angeles Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow +3000/+2000

Paul Skenes (Pittsburgh Pirates): 1-1 W/L, 3.44 ERA, 18.1 innings, 12 hits, 8 runs (7 earned), 0 home runs, 3 walks, 20 strikeouts, 0.82 WHIP

The public adoration of Paul Skenes is in its second season and shows no signs of letting up. The young flamethrower from LSU and the Air Force Academy put up some eye-popping numbers in a rookie season that saw him finish third in the National League Cy Young race. His second run through the senior circuit has been solid but not spectacular. The weapons in his arsenal continue to impress, with an average 4-seam fastball velocity of 98.1 MPH, second fastest in the majors among starting pitchers. Playing for the Pirates won't give him any extra boost, and with his odds so low, better options are available.

Cristopher Sanchez (Philadelphia Phillies): 0-0 W/L, 4.09 ERA, 11 innings, 10 hits, 5 runs (5 earned), 3 home runs, 3 walks, 16 strikeouts, 1.18 WHIP

Philadelphia's staff has more prominent names, but Sanchez (+5000/+2000) is a hidden gem with tremendous upside. His basic stats are a little inflated because he faced the potent Dodger lineup and gave up four earned runs in 5 2/3 innings. His advanced analytics, however, are quite impressive. His 13.09 K/9 innings is 4rh in the majors, and when runners reach base on him, he has stranded 91.8% of them, indicating that the biggest threat Sanchez faces is giving up the long ball. The Phillies are poised to make the playoffs for their 4th consecutive season, a feat they haven't accomplished since the late 2000s with the "Four Horsemen" of Doc Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Cole Hamels in their starting rotation. If Sanchez can conquer his penchant for serving up round-trippers, he will be a very live longshot.

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