College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 10/22/2009
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
And over the past two years they have been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. Last year the teams that were in the Ferringo 15 each week went 81-63-3 for the season. That means every week when I rotated someone else in I took their performance ATS for that weekend's games. We won 57.6 percent of those situations. Also, after two weeks I had the sport nailed. The teams that were listed in the Ferringo 15 entering Week 3 went on to finish the year a collective 113-67-2 ATS. That's a 62.8 winning percentage and it means that if you had bet $100 per week on only those 15 teams for the whole year you would have finished the season up around $4,000.
Man, one of my personal best college football betting seasons, but the worst season so far in the three-year history of the Ferringo 15. Curious. For the season that is now just a 41-44-1 mark though so there is still work to do. However, I still feel like it's a long season and that the value will increase as the season tracks on.
Here is the Ferringo 15, my college football (profit) power rankings:
1. Idaho (6-0) - That is now a 10-1 ATS run dating back to last year and the Vandals are now two-touchdown underdogs at Nevada this week. In fact, they are catching 15.5 points in Reno. This team has played a soft schedule and did lose by 19 at Washington. But they also beat the same Colorado State team that handled the Wolfpack by 15 early in the year. I'm just saying, it's tough to bet against a team that's covered 10 of 11, especially laying that many points. This team can play a bit.
2. Connecticut (6-0) - You absolutely can't bet on or against this team this week. It is just awful karma to try to exploit death in order to earn some money. You may win your bet or you may lose your bet, but the long-lasting negative karmic implications and bad luck that come from such a play are no joke. Just send some prayers to the family and friends and look further down the card.
3. Alabama (5-1) - They deserve to be the No. 1 team in the nation and they are just dominating right now. It would be very interesting to see who would be favored on a neutral site between 'Bama and Florida if they played next week. Alabama is 7-2 ATS in their last nine conference games. And considering that the SEC is a "dog league" that's really saying something. Tennessee has had two weeks to prepare but they have lost by 20 and 24 in the last two meetings. I expect more domination this week, even though 'Bama's average win over the last three weeks has been just 17 points per.
4. Louisiana-Monroe (5-1) - This week's tilt with Kentucky is a chance for the Sun Belt to step out and earn some respect. They are catching Kentucky off a huge underdog win and the last time these clubs met (2006) Monroe actually had a chance to tie the game on a two-point conversion with under a minute to play. This group covered at Texas to start the year (by just three points, and they were catching 41.5) but didn't cover at Arizona State. They nearly won at Arkansas last season but also got skunked 59-0 at Ole Miss, so they are a mixed bag against top competition.
5. Ohio State (5-2) - Even though I was pimping the Buckeyes last week, I have to say that I'm not that stunned that they lost in Purdue. It's not a knock on Ohio State (who I have felt is overrated) but just the simple fact that Purdue had been playing so many people so tough that they were due for a big win. But watch: now that everyone is off the bandwagon for the Buckeyes they'll come out and go on like a 3-1 ATS run over the next month and you'll kick yourself for not betting more on them. Seen it for years now.
6. Central Michigan (5-1) - See, this right here is why the Ferringo 15 hasn't been that successful this year. No reason why Central Michigan shouldn't have been in the Top 5 all season long and they just continue to dominate. With one of the top quarterbacks in this conference's history (and that's saying something) in Dan LeFevour and a defense with experience (10 returning starters) and some bite (No. 19 in points allowed), the Chips are just wrecking people. In the midst of a four-of-five-on-the-road swing, so I do expect a slip-up at some point (are they looking ahead to Boston College this week?).
7. Boise State (4-1) - This team is 7-2 ATS in its last nine road games, but they are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against the Rainbow Warriors. Also, because Boise played on Wednesday last week they had some extra prep time before heading out to the islands.
8. Nebraska (5-1) - Getting floored, by 21 points, at home, to Texas Tech was a pretty clear slap in the face to this team. And it once again showed that the Big 12 South just absolutely owns the Big 12 North. In fact, it's pretty comical at this point. I expect no mercy on Iowa State this week. However, ISU has been feisty on the road and has covered four straight away games. That said, Nebraska has gone 9-3 ATS in this series and is 6-1 ATS in Lincoln.
9. Ohio (5-2) - Look who is getting it done in the MAC. There is always a couple cash-money teams out of this small conference; the MAC is basically the Atlantic 10 of college hoops: better than you think and a gold mine if you know what you're doing. Well, this team has won five straight and has respectable losses to Connecticut (by seven) and at Tennessee (by 11). Ohio has failed to cover four straight at home against Kent State, but has won three of the last four meetings.
10. Central Florida (4-1) - I don't think you can knock UCF for their effort against Miami last week. The question is whether or not a school like this can come back from such an emotional in-state rivalry game and then go on the road as a double-digit favorite and perform. Rice has been terrible this year. And one of my biggest regrets of this season is that I haven't bet against them every single week. Will this be the time to jump on the fade train?
11. Auburn (4-2) - Uh-oh. Auburn could be hitting the skids now that they actually have to play some people. Their marquee early-season win was over West Virginia, at home, and other than that was a road win at Tennessee. This team is sinking and is facing an LSU team that has had two weeks to prep. The Tigers are just 3-9 ATS in SEC play and their defense definitely needs to step up this week.
12. Southern Methodist (4-1) - The Mustangs matchup with Houston in a battle of Ferringo 15 teams this week and a game that should be a CUSA shootout. SMU lost a tough one in overtime to Navy last week and if they want to earn bowl eligibility they will need an upset down the stretch run. (That collapse at Washington State is killing this team right now.) This team is 13-6-2 ATS as a double-digit dog over the last several years and 4-0 ATS as an underdog overall.
13. Wyoming (5-1) - This group gets a week off before a tough game at Utah. I touched on this recently: Wyoming has taken care of business against weak opponents. But now they face Utah, BYU and TCU, with a sandwich game at San Diego State mixed in. We're going to find out everything we need to know about their value here in the next month. But they are two wins away from bowl eligibility and may have to beat one of those top dogs to get there.
14. Miami (5-1) - I guess I shouldn't have dumped Miami a couple weeks ago. I really just feel like they are a bit too public to be a good long-term wager. However, there is no denying the money they have made their backers so far this season. And with the ability to score points quickly they have shown that they can handle some of the fat lines. I am wary of the line movement on their game with Clemson this week. The Canes are catching about three-fourths of all of the action but the line has continued to drop from -6.0 to -4.5. Miami is just 11-31-1 ATS as a home favorite so they still have a lot to prove.
15. Houston (4-1) - Houston has some trends working against them this week. The Cougars are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against SMU, the favorite is 1-4 ATS in this series, and the home team is 1-4 ATS in this series. Houston likely won't have any mercy in this matchup but they are also just 4-10 ATS as a favorite (despite a 5-1 ATS run at home). Houston's defense is definitely good enough to get stops against SMU but I'm not sure the same can be said for the Mustangs. But the question will be whether or not the oddsmakers are giving Houston too many points to overcome because there is no doubt that they win this game.
Others Receiving Votes: Michigan (5-2), Temple (3-1), Virginia (4-1), Cal (4-2).
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.
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