College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/30/2009
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
And over the past two years they have been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. Last year the teams that were in the Ferringo 15 each week went 81-63-3 for the season. That means every week when I rotated someone else in I took their performance ATS for that weekend's games. We won 57.6 percent of those situations. Also, after two weeks I had the sport nailed. The teams that were listed in the Ferringo 15 entering Week 3 went on to finish the year a collective 113-67-2 ATS. That's a 62.8 winning percentage and it means that if you had bet $100 per week on only those 15 teams for the whole year you would have finished the season up around $4,000.
Last weekend was another rare, rare down week for the F-15. It's been pretty stunning actually; as for the first time in Ferringo 15 history the teams in this space had back-to-back collective losing weekends. For the season that is now just a 22-25-1 mark. However, I still feel like it's a long season and that the value will increase as the season tracks on.
1. Syracuse (3-0) - Well, this is the jinx spot. For four straight weeks the No. 1 team in the Ferringo 15 has failed to cover the spread. Now the Orange are home dogs to South Florida this Saturday. USF is in a prime letdown spot after a huge upset at Florida State. However, they have rocked Syracuse in the past two meetings (avg. win margin: 31.5 points per game) and I thought that new quarterback B.J. Daniels looked excellent. That said, the Dome will be rocking and I am firmly on record that Syracuse will spring at least two upsets in Big East play this year.
2. Stanford (3-1) - Guess who is on top of the Pac-10 standings. You got it. Jim Harbaugh has a really, really good team. And if USC loses this weekend than the conference title is going to be completely up for grabs. Why not the Cardinal? Stanford's veteran team has been making strides for three years. This could be one of those magical years (see: Kansas, 2007) where things just fall into place for a veteran team. Just a huge game with UCLA this weekend and I think that the winner of that game could be in the driver's seat for the conference crown.
3. UCLA (3-0) - Perhaps the Bruins should have started the season as my No. 1 team. Would you believe that UCLA is actually 43-21 ATS in their last 64 games and have been one of the most profitable teams in the country over the last six years? Rick Neuheisel has had two weeks to prep for their trip to Stanford and the Bruins have won five straight in this series. Last year these teams played an outstanding game, with UCLA managing a late TD with 10 seconds to play for a 23-20 win. UCLA still won't have quarterback Kevin Prince, but he is targeting the following week (at home against Oregon) for his return.
4. Central Michigan (3-0) - All the Chips have done is go 33-13-2 ATS in their last 48 games overall. That's four years' worth of exceptional profits. And the main reason for their success at the window is a dominating 22-7-2 mark ATS in MAC play. They head to Buffalo this week to take on a reeling Bulls team. The road team is 4-1 ATS in this series and Central Michigan actually managed a tough win over a much better Bulls team last year. But then again, that game was at home.
5. Clemson (3-1) - Tough fourth quarter loss to TCU is the only thing standing between the Tigers and a 4-0 ATS mark. Yet, given how South Florida chewed up Florida State, I am still feeling good about my pick of Clemson winning the Atlantic. Their front four is still the best in the league. And over the last two seasons the team with the best front four (Georgia Tech last year, Virginia in 2007) has been one of the best ATS bets on the East Coast. But they have to take care of business this week against a weak Maryland squad.
6. Cal (2-1-1) - A loss is a loss in the eyes of the books. However, the stunning collapse and humiliating manner in which the Golden Bears lost at Oregon can't be ignored. And I don't think that it has been. I think that losing 42-3 at Oregon has a lot of people running from Cal. Not me. I knew that they had a shot at winning the Pac-10 but that they probably wouldn't because of a brutal schedule. However, this team still has a load of talent. And I think that they will only lose one more game. But if Kevin Riley can pull his head out of his ass this team could be a Pac-10 cash cow all year, especially because people will have that Oregon loss in the back of their minds.
7. Auburn (3-1) - This team is teetering in my eyes. They won by 24 last week against Ball State but gave up 30 points to a pretty weak offense. Also, after three straight SU and ATS wins, the dreaded win-no cover is usually an indicator that bad things are about to happen. But this is a talented team and they still have some bite. They are underdogs headed to Tennessee and are just 2-7 ATS in SEC play. Win on the road and justify the value.
8. Purdue (3-1) - We hit with Purdue last week against perpetually overrated Notre Dame, but definitely should have gone much bigger on the Boilers. This Purdue team is legit. But because they are only covering the spread against these marquee teams and not winning outright I think that their value is holding strong. They have lost three straight games by an average of just four points. Curiously, they are a heavy favorite this week. I don't think that's their best role and won't be stunned if they lose outright. But with a brutal, brutal slate of games ahead (at Minny, Ohio State, Illinois, at Wiscy, at Michigan, Michigan State) I see the Boilers catching a lot of points and being a very live dog each week.
9. Louisiana-Monroe (3-1) - The Warhawks need to avoid the letdown after a big upset at Florida Atlantic last weekend. Now they get the other Florida team (International) this Saturday and UL-M is 3-0 ATS in the last three in this series. This is a dangerous game - especially with a key clash with Arkansas State on deck. But Monroe is a very veteran team that was due for a big bounce back this year. Like MTSU, if Monroe is going to be a real threat in conference this year they have to win this weekend. Monroe also has a back-loaded schedule, with four of the last six games on the road. They should be catching a lot of points in most of those games (at Kentucky, at Troy) and I think they could be good enough to hang around.
10. Middle Tennessee State (3-1) - Tony Franklin may be a dickhead, but he sure can coach. And he's been doing work with MTSU's talented quarterback Dwight Dasher. And I don't think that they have nearly reached their scoring potential yet. This is one of the most experienced teams in the Sun Belt and I think that this league is wide open. They have a huge game at Troy - one of Franklin's old stomps - this Tuesday. If this team is going to be a true threat in the SBC they will need to get that one. But the bottom line is that even if they don't win I think they are good enough to keep it close.
11. Alabama (3-1) - This is another team that is not "under the radar" by any means. Hell, they are getting first-place votes and are a national title contender. But the bottom line is that with the best defense in the country this team can simply smother people. And teams can't cover if they can't score. Also, a lot of SEC West teams (Mississippi, LSU, Arkansas, Auburn) are making noise and getting some love. But Alabama is head-and-shoulders above them all and that means we could cash in on some short numbers.
12. Ohio State (3-1) - As long as the Buckeyes don't have to play any good teams they are fine. Back-to-back dominating efforts by OSU's defense show that there is no quit in this team after yet another loss to USC. And having the best player on the field at all times (well, in the Big 10 anyway) in Terrelle Pryor is a huge boon. All Jim Tressel has done over the last four-plus years is go 34-19 ATS. That's money. And the true value with this club is on the road. They are 19-7 ATS on the road and 17-5 ATS as a road chalk.
13. Boise State (4-0) - I really hesitate to put this team on this list because, well, Boise State has gotten a lot of love over the past few weeks, months and years. They aren't underappreciated, by any means. But the thing is, no one can stop them. That offense is amazing. And with tricky games on the road at Tulsa, at Hawaii, and at Louisiana Tech still on the board I think that the oddsmakers might still short them. We will see. But every year a couple of the Top 10 teams post ridiculous records (10-2, 11-1, etc.) against the spread. Boise State could be that team this year.
14. Nebraska (4-0) - This team might be the best in the Big 12 North and now has two weeks to prepare for unbeaten Missouri. They have been on a roll and I think that their schedule works out perfectly for them to have a big season. They get Texas Tech and Iowa State in Lincoln after they play Mizzou. Then they are on the road at Baylor. So this team should be 7-1 when Oklahoma comes to down. Even a loss there and a 2-1 close to the year would leave the Huskers at 9-3 heading into the Big 12 title game (assuming they top Kansas). The issue with this team is how long they will stay "under the radar". They are No. 23 now, but after a few more wins you have to think they'll go from underrated to overrated pretty quickly because of the name recognition.
15. Washington (2-2) - It is going to be tough with this team the rest of the year because everyone is instantly going to see that USC upset when see Washington's name. However, seeing that they are nearly two-touchdown underdogs heading to South Bend this week lets me know that there is still some value here. Plus, I doubt they will be favored in any of their Pac-10 games. Whether or not they can live up to their perceived "value" remains to be seen, but this team still has some winners left in it.
Others Receiving Votes: N.C. State (2-1-1), Virginia Tech (2-2), Texas A&M (2-1), Iowa (3-0), Michigan (3-1), Indiana (3-0), Tulsa (3-1), Temple (2-0), Northern Illinois (3-1), BYU (3-1), Vanderbilt (2-1), Idaho (4-0).
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.
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