College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 11/18/2009
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
And over the past two years they have been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. Last year the teams that were in the Ferringo 15 each week went 81-63-3 for the season. That means every week when I rotated someone else in I took their performance ATS for that weekend's games. We won 57.6 percent of those situations. Also, after two weeks I had the sport nailed. The teams that were listed in the Ferringo 15 entering Week 3 went on to finish the year a collective 113-67-2 ATS. That's a 62.8 winning percentage and it means that if you had bet $100 per week on only those 15 teams for the whole year you would have finished the season up around $4,000.
Well, it's been a while since my Ferringo 15 has been published, but in that time our "money teams" have had their best stretch of the season, posting a 25-18 ATS mark. Maybe I should have just left everyone be! However, the 15 teams below now represent the best bets in the country through the heart of the college football season. If you had been riding these schools it's been a great year for you.
For the season the rotating teams that I have had in this space are now just 72-68-1 so there is still work to do to get us into profit territory before the end of the year.
Here is the Ferringo 15, my college football (profit) power rankings:
1. Connecticut (8-2) - Even though the Huskies are just 4-5 on the season, 1-4 in conference play, and in sixth place in the Big East, I don't think that there has been a better coaching job in the country than what Randy Edsall has done in Storrs. This team has three games left and likely needs them all to become bowl eligible. You want to bet against them at this point? The only trouble this week is that they run into an equally desperate Notre Dame crew.
2. Stanford (7-3) - I had said earlier in the season in this very space that Stanford was my choice to win the Pac-10. They still need some help, but that is an altogether attainable goal. That opening week loss at Wake is killing their bowl prospects right now. The biggest issue for the Cardinal this week is avoiding the letdown after hammering USC and overlooking Cal without Jahvid Best.
3. Ohio State (8-3) - The good news is that we won't have to listen to any talk about Ohio State deserving a slot in the national title game. It's tough to lay out 12 points in a rivalry game - on the road - against a team that has revenge and nothing else to play for but spoiling your season. But the bottom line is how do you bet against the Buckeyes this week? It's all of those mock reasons not to play on this team that has helped them go 37-18 ATS over their last 55 games overall.
4. Central Michigan (7-2) - If you think for one second that Ball State has a shot at upsetting Central Michigan on Wednesday, think again. Central Michigan is built for primetime and they want to make an emphatic statement. The road team has covered three of four and CMU has covered three of four in this series. The Chips have revenge and I don't see how the Ball State defense can slow down Dan LeFevour.
5. Oregon (7-3) - Well, I can say that this team was my biggest miss this year. I definitely was not expecting the level of success that they have had and I am still not altogether sure how they got here. I will say this - I was one of the people that said that dismissing LeGarrette Blount was a huge mistake. Not that the team needed him, but just that his punishment didn't fit his crime and that it was an overreaction at the time. I'm just glad that the Oregon brass realized its err.
6. Middle Tennessee State (7-3) - The Sun Belt is always great at producing one or two teams that just clean up at the window each season. This year it is Middle Tennessee State. Tony Franklin may be a scumbag, but it's pretty clear he knows how to coach. He got this team running the spread effectively this season with virtually no rough patches or learning curve (unlike at Auburn) and deserves a lot of credit.
7. Alabama (7-3) - You should completely ignore this week's score against Chattanooga. This is a "get well" week for the Crimson Tide before wrapping up at Auburn. Alabama is on a collision course with Florida and I will say this - it's almost too easy at this point to just say that the Tide is going to roll over the Gators. But that seems to be the consensus at the moment.
8. Temple (7-2) - On one hand, Temple is a bit deceiving. Absolutely every break that they could have gotten this season - cushy schedule, turnover bounces, opponent's injuries, etc. - has gone their way. So in that respect I think that their record (both overall and ATS) is a bit misleading. But on the other hand, after watching Buffalo spring the upset over heavily favored Ball State last year I'm starting to think that Temple might be able to repeat the feat and represent the MAC East in the title game again this year.
9. Central Florida (7-2) - I've been kicking myself for not going back to Central Florida last week against Houston. I cashed with them at Texas and taking the points against the Cougars was one of the last plays off my board. It shouldn't have been. This is a rugged UCF team that bounced back from an injury-riddled season in 2008 to have a strong 2009 campaign. This week could be letdown central for the Knights, as even if East Carolina loses UCF loses the tiebreakers for the division crown.
10. TCU (7-2) - It's not as if the oddsmakers aren't trying to make it difficult for the Horned Frogs to cover. They were favored in Provo last month and the average line in their game over the past three weeks has been TCU -27. Listening to Stewart Mandel this week he is projecting a Georgia Tech-TCU matchup in the Orange Bowl. That one doesn't have much national sizzle, but it would be one hell of a game. TCU is 38-18-1 ATS overall and they are 3-0-1 ATS in the last four against Wyoming.
11. Georgia Tech (7-2) - All of the buzz in Atlanta - the heart of SEC country - is about the Jackets. This team has two weeks to prepare for a major rivalry game with Georgia over Thanksgiving weekend. That week off this time of year may dull some of their momentum but it also gives them a chance to go over some basics, work in some new wrinkles, and get healthy.
12. Wyoming (7-2) - Look who is lurking just a pair of spots below the Horned Frogs this week, eh? Two years ago the Cowboys actually beat TCU when the Frogs ventured to Laramie. Last year Wyoming caught TCU after the BYU game, but there wasn't a letdown as the Horned Frogs dominated, 54-7. Part of the reason Wyoming has been so good this season is because they have been so bad over the last several years. And they are still just 4-10-1 ATS at home.
13. Clemson (8-2) - I just can't believe that I didn't bet them every single week. I knew at the beginning of the season that this was one of the most undervalued teams in the country but just completely dropped the ball after using them for a Game of the Year score early. This week is their last home game against sagging Virginia. But be careful about laying the points: with the a spot in the ACC title game sown up you have to be careful of them looking ahead to their big rivalry game with South Carolina.
14. Indiana (7-3) - Allegedly the "worst" team in the Big Ten, all the Hoosiers have done is make life miserable for every opponent that they've lined up against this year. That's the sign of good coaching, whether the people in Bloomington want to believe it or not. They do have three conference losses by three points or less, and that right there is what's keeping this team from bowling. Indiana lost, 62-10, last year at Purdue so they clearly have revenge. The home team is 9-2 ATS in this series.
15. Nebraska (7-3) - Huge game this weekend against Kansas State. The winner has the inside track on the Big 12 North title and the Huskers have a huge edge playing this game at home. But with the nation's No. 77 offense do they have the firepower for a blowout here? K-State has nearly been as underrated this season. But the favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS and the Huskers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against a team with a winning record.
Others Receiving Votes: Pittsburgh (6-3), Iowa (7-3), Marshall (6-3), Idaho (7-3), Utah State (7-3).
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.
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