College Football Power Rankings - The Ferringo 15
by Robert Ferringo - 9/3/2009
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Polls. Our culture is permeated by swarm of focus-group happy vagrants who value style over substance. And in the sports world there is no area where this plague is more rampant than college football.
My former sports editor back in New York used to say that college football is nothing more than a glorified beauty pageant. He was right. Public Perception is valued more than performance in many instances and as a result the watered-down and sterilized sport is ruled by a cesspool of back-alley conspirators, imbeciles, and Beano Cook. The Polls are King, and they have as much of an impact on what happens on the field as popular intangibles like the fans or the weather.
Polls are evil. At least in the mind of a bleeding heart liberal they are. But when it comes to college football betting on the enraged amateurs that assemble each week on the gridiron, polls and rankings can be your best friend. They set the general consensus on how strong a certain team is, regardless of Truth, and that makes a poll or power ranking a tool for exploiting a misinformed betting public. That's now what I'm going after here. We have enough rampant speculation across the nation so I set out to provide my faithful readers with some info that will enrich their gambling lives. The result: the Ferringo 15, my college football power rankings.
The Ferringo 15 is my Profit-Power Rankings, a ladder or hierarchy based on which teams are the most profitable on the field. I'm not trying to give you some other nonsensical, random, speculative power rankings based on my own biases and conjecture. So instead of Ohio State moving up or down the polls on the basis of how badly they blew out Northwestern the previous Saturday, I'm going to rank each team based on past, present, and projected future achievement against the spread.
And over the past two years they have been on point. In 2007 the teams that finished in the Ferringo 15 had a collective 121-46-1 mark against the spread. Last year the teams that were in the Ferringo 15 each week went 81-63-3 for the season. That means every week when I rotated someone else in I took their performance ATS for that weekend's games. We won 57.6 percent of those situations. Also, after two weeks I had the sport nailed. The teams that were listed in the Ferringo 15 entering Week 3 went on to finish the year a collective 113-67-2 ATS. That's a 62.8 winning percentage and it means that if you had bet $100 per week on only those 15 teams for the whole year you would have finished the season up around $4,000.
This initial ranking was definitely the hardest and probably the least valuable. Below I've listed a random group of teams that I think will function particularly well for bettors this season. In a way, I suppose you could consider this a glorified "sleeper" list since it is more of a prediction at the moment. That means that unlike the Top 25 polls I could have an entirely new list of 15 teams next week, or the week after. But soon enough, after we've had a few weeks to get the lay of the land, these rankings will be buttressed by actual, visceral performance. For now it is merely conjecture.
Anyway, here goes:
1. Washington (0-0) - Murphy's Law was the only law around the Huskies program. Injured stars, brutal schedule, more injured starters, lame duck coach, more injuries, soul-crushing late losses, a complete collapse of common decency and faith in the program, and more injuries. They were 0-12 on the season and an absolutely unfathomable 1-11 against the spread. That is one of the worst marks in the last 20 years against the spread. Things can only get better. The schedule this year is not much easier. However, if the Huskies can make it through the first month with their limbs intact I think they could be a thorn in the side of Pac-10 contenders for the entire year.
2. UAB (0-0) - There are 18 starters back on this squad, making them one of the most experienced clubs in the country. They have virtually no expectations and were one of the weakest teams in Conference USA last season. CUSA is, in my mind, loaded with profitable teams this year. Much like the MAC was last year. And this UAB team has enormous potential for not winning games, but hanging around them.
3. UNLV (0-0) - There are definite questions regarding this team, particularly on defense. But I am really, really high on their prospects this year. I don't think that they have enough to overcome BYU and the 28- and 29-year-olds that fill their roster. But I do think that UNLV can sneak past TCU and/or Utah this year into the No. 2 or No. 3 spot and their first bowl game since 2000. It all starts with quarterback Omar Clayton and his favorite target, Ryan Wolfe. And with eight three-year starters on the board it may be now or never.
4. Illinois (0-0) - This is pretty high to place a team coached by Ron Zook. The guy is just not a game manager. And neither is his quarterback, Juice Williams. But this is it for Juice. And this could be the year for a surprise winner in the Big Ten. After a shockingly bad 5-7 year (4-7 ATS) that included losses to Western Michigan, Northwestern and Minnesota I think that the Illini could be set for a big bounce back. There are big questions on defense. But all we've heard about over the past few years is the great recruiting Zook has done. Time to pay some dividends.
5. Arkansas State (0-0) - If there is a team that is going to knock Troy out of the top spot in the Sun Belt it is going to be Arkansas State. They have a rare combo with two four-year starters in the backfield: quarterback Corey Leonard and running back Reggie Arnold. They are both all-conference performers. And much like we saw with Rice last year (Chase Clement and Jarrett Dillard) having two studs like that can lead to special things. Oh, and don't forget the defensive player of the year in the conference: Alex Carrington.
6. Wyoming (0-0) - Wyoming has been a goddamn debacle for the last two years. They are 4-18 ATS during that time and it led to the ouster of Joe Glenn. New coach, hopefully a new attitude in Laramie. Because there are some guys that can play here. They have 16 starters back and three three-year starters on the defensive line. This team was good enough to beat Tennessee in Knoxville, so there is some talent here. Their past collapses should make them a valuable team in The Mountain.
7. Clemson (0-0) - Much like Illinois, it's dangerous to count on this Clemson team because they have been such a disappointment so many times. But I think that after a very humbling, drama-filled 2008 this team is kind of floating under the radar in the solid ACC. They have one of the best running backs in the league (C.J. Spiller) and led by All American candidate Thomas Austin the O-line could go from a weakness to a strength. The defensive line is loaded with talent and this team has one crucial thing: the most experienced secondary in the league. Lines might jump on this team quick. But they have a tough schedule and should face really playable lines against teams like Georgia Tech and TCU.
8. Nevada (0-0) - Notre Dame could find out all about the Wolf Pack this weekend. Nevada has a lot of experience and a quirky system - and that makes for a dangerous opponent. It starts with the returning offensive player of the year in the WAC, quarterback Colin Kaepernick, and he is joined the in backfield by first team All-WAC runner Vai Taua. They have an interesting schedule and I think they could be a great bet this year.
9. Miami (0-0) - The Hurricanes will not be back this year. Their schedule is just so tough this year that I'll be stunned if they win more than six games. They open against Florida State, Georgia Tech, at Virginia Tech, and against Oklahoma. Ouch. But I think that this squad will be very competitive in each of those games. It's tough to get soft lines involving the 'Canes because they are so public. But I think they could be a solid wager this year and could see them hit eight ATS wins for the first time since 2000.
10. SMU (0-0) - Really tough to bet on a team that has gone 2-22 over the last two years and starts a quarterback named Bo Levi Mitchell. But I think this could be a decent year for it. This is Year 2 in June Jones' system and we all know what he was able to accomplish in Hawaii before he left. These guys had four losses by a touchdown or less last year, including three in their last six games. So they were starting to get it. I don't think they are going to compete for any league honors, but this club is going to be a tough out. Especially with five of their last eight games at home.
11. Texas A&M (0-0) - The Aggies are not back. I know their fan base is pretty excited about this season and they do have some reason to. They have 10 returning offensive starters and are in the second season of coach Mike Sherman's system. This group also has five home games to start the year to build some confidence. They play in the South so they aren't going to compete for a top spot. But I think that they are good enough to beat the teams that they are supposed to and be competitive against most others.
12. UTEP (0-0) - I mentioned that I think that Conference USA is loaded with talent, experience, and undervalued teams. UTEP is one of them. They have 10 three-year starters and a very manageable schedule. They also have solid up-and-coming quarterback Trevor Vittatoe and former all-conference wideout Jeff Moturi leading the offense. And with stud rover Braxton Amy back leading the defense they don't have any chance but to be better.
13. Arkansas (0-0) - There have been some injury issues and I think that Bobby Petrino still has plenty of bad karma surrounding him because he's, you know, a scumbag. But there is something to this team. They should have sucked a lot worse than they did last year. But they were very competitive in almost all of their road games (except Texas) and finished the year very strong. With 18 starters back they should be able to build on that. But then again they did almost lose to Western Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe, so proceed with caution.
14. Stanford (0-0) - I really like this Stanford team more than this ranking but they are a "buzz team" in the Pac-10 and that soaks out their value. They have 18 returning starters, an absolute horse at tailback in Toby Gerhart, and they are in the third year of feisty head coach Jim Harbaugh's system. I do think that they can compete with the big boys in this division. Without a doubt. And their value may be highest in games against the top competition. Unfortunately, those games don't come until the end of the year. So it will be interesting to see how they navigate a tailor-made schedule.
15. Georgia (0-0) - This season could be vintage Mark Richt. The guy is 30-4 on the road in the last eight years and has won 10 or more games in six of seven. Much like Mike Riley out at Oregon State he does his best work when expectations are low. They suffered some tough injuries and had to endure a brutal schedule last season en route to their "disappointing" 10-3 year. They lost their key skill guys but they picked up strength along both the offensive and defensive lines. We have to hope they get creamed in Oklahoma State. That will only serve to boost their value in SEC play.
Others Receiving Votes: Iowa, Michigan State, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, Iowa State, UCLA, Marshall, San Jose State, Toledo, Ohio, Akron, Middle Tennessee State, Purdue, Louisiana-Monroe, Southern Mississippi.
Robert Ferringo is a professional handicapper and you can purchase a full season's package of his football selections for just $25 per week! Click here for details.
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