NASCAR: Coca Cola 600 Odds and Predictions
by Christopher G. Shepard - 05/23/2009
Ryan Newman celebrated the 44th pole of his career with a $41,600 check as the fastest lap-burner at happy hour for the Coca Cola 600, NASCAR's longest race, set to smoke the tires at Lowe's Motor Speedway Sunday at 5 p.m.
Newman, driving on a Hendrick Motorsports chassis for frosh NASCAR team Stewart-Haas Racing proved he can drive around the speedway for one lap faster than anyone else -- but only by just that much. Kyle Busch will start from the outside while team HMS will take the second row with Jeff Gordon and Mark Martin third and fourth, respectively. Meanwhile, Jimmie Johnson, three-time Coca Cola 600 winner, will start his quest for a sixth win at LMS from the No. 5 hole.
Who will win the Coca Cola 600?
Two weeks ago my pick Greg Biffle was in fine shape with 100 laps to go (don't laugh). Biffle had extended his lead to about two seconds. However, an awful pit on the 277th lap doomed the No. 16 car. Biffle came into the pits first but came out of pit row in ninth (okay, laugh). From there it just got worse as Biffle and Carl Edwards made contact on Lap 284 that sent Edwards crashing into the wall while Biffle never recovered. Biffle finished the race in eighth place (making that two consecutive years that Biffle has had poor finishes) and Mark Martin won his second race of the season and his first at LMS since 1993.
Speaking of the "Old Man," Martin has shown why HMS gave him a slot and a shot this year after parting ways with Casey Mears. Not only is Martin 11th in the Sprint Cup standings but he has notched six Top-10 finishes in his last seven races and won three poles this year! Talk about consistency. The way he is racing it won't be a surprise to see Martin in the Top 10 again this week. Can anyone say "Dale Junior who?"
Kyle Busch is ranked seventh in the Sprint Cup standings and motors into LMS as one of the few NASCAR drivers to record a Top-5 finish his last three races at Lowe's. In fact, he is only one of four current drivers to hold more than two back-to-back Top-10 finishes at the speedway. Consider that Busch can race LMS across the series; on the Nationwide circuit Busch has recorded two wins at LMS and finished second at LMS last.
In last weekend's All-Star event at LMS Brother Kyle tried squeezing between Jeff Gordon and Greg Biffle and ended up causing the three to wreck in the last 10-lap segment of the race (which was won eventually by Tony Stewart).
This Sunday is much different, however, as it counts. And say what you will but Kyle is always there when it counts. Starting from the front row Busch will have the benefit of clean air and 600 miles to think about the sacrifice that all the veterans have made for this country and how lucky he is to be able to eat M&Ms, drive stock cars at butt-clenching speeds, and win a lot of races in the best country in the world.
Pick! Kyle Busch, No. 18, (5/1)
2009 Coca Cola 600- Lucky Dog Long Odds Special
Last week was All-Star Weekend and all you need to know is that Tony Stewart won a million bucks by winning the race. Actually, that isn't all you need to know. More importantly, All-Star Weekend was held at Lowe's and that gave teams a chance to practice on the same track that they'd be running on this week. While many teams spent a lot of time gathering data and adjusting to the track it was Smoke that seemed to intuitively grasp what the track was giving. Certainly Stewart had run a good race -- if you forgive the maddening 10-lap segments when Kenseth gave up the bottom to Stewart. Kenseth raced well and could have won, but he made a costly error by going high and allowing Stewart to pass him on the last lap. This was the first, albeit non-official victory, for Stewart-Haas Racing. I wouldn't be too surprised to see Stewart, who has climbed up from eighth to second place on the Sprint Cup leader board, win one that counts this week.
Pick! Tony Stewart, (12/1)
2009 Coca Cola 600 - Odds for Top 3 Finish
Five-time LMS winner Johnson was leading last year's Coca Cola 600 for 35 laps and then his engine blew with 50 laps to go, giving him a 39th place finish. Last October Johnson finished a respectable sixth en route to his third consecutive Sprint Cup Championship title. No driver or team was more dominant at LMS between 2003 and 2006 than Johnson when he won four consecutive races at his sponsor's home track. This includes wins at the Coca Cola 600 in 2003, 2004, and 2005.
Despite Johnson's successes (He has eight Top-5 finishes and 12 Top-10s in 15 starts) at LMS crew chief Chad Knaus and his pit crew seemed to have a hard time at the All-Star event. Although once you understood their strategy the endless pits seemed to make sense. Rather than gunning for the win, a result you would expect from the dominant HMS team at Lowe's, team No. 48 was trying to extract as much data as possible for this Sunday's race. Johnson ended up finishing the All-Star race 13 out of 21 drivers but something tells me Knaus and crew got the intelligence they were looking for and if Johnson doesn't win the race chances are very good he'll put the No. 48 SS Impala, decorated with the 12,548 names of Lowe's employees who are veterans or reservists, in the top 3.
Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (6/5)
Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Coca Cola 600
May 24, 5 p.m. - Lowes Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson 6/5
Kyle Busch 3/2
Jeff Gordon 9/5
Mark Martin 3/1
Ryan Newman 3/1
Carl Edwards 18/5
Kurt Busch 18/5
Greg Biffle 18/5
Tony Stewart1 8/5
Denny Hamlin 9/2
Matt Kenseth 27/5
Kasey Kahne 27/5
Brian Vickers 6/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 15/2
Martin Truex Jr 9/1
Jeff Burton 12/1
Jamie McMurray 12/1
Joey Logano 12/1
David Ragan 12/1
Kevin Harvick 12/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1
Clint Bowyer 15/1
David Reutimann 18/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr 22/1
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Casey Mears 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
AJ Allmendinger 30/1
David Stremme 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Sprint Cup Series - Odds to win the Coca Cola 600
May 24, 5 p.m. - Lowes Motor Speedway
Jimmie Johnson 4/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Jeff Gordon 6/1
Ryan Newman 10/1
Mark Martin 10/1
Carl Edwards 12/1
Kurt Busch 12/1
Tony Stewart 12/1
Greg Biffle 12/1
Denny Hamlin 15/1
Matt Kenseth 18/1
Kasey Kahne 18/1
Brian Vickers 20/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr 25/1
Martin Truex Jr 30/1
Jamie McMurray 40/1
Jeff Burton 40/1
Kevin Harvick 40/1
David Ragan 40/1
Joey Logano 40/1
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1
Clint Bowyer 50/1
David Reutimann 60/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 60/1
Sam Hornish Jr 75/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Scott Speed 100/1
Casey Mears 100/1
AJ Allmendinger 100/1
David Stremme 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
*Odds courtesy of Sportsbook.com