Jimmie Johnson remains the Sprint Cup points' leader despite a 33rd-place finish last week at Talladega. He conceded 111 points to Mark Martin with two races remaining in the Chase for the Sprint Cup as NASCAR heads to the flat-track of Phoenix International Speedway for the Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 on Sunday at 2:30 p.m.

Who will win the 2009 Checker Auto Parts 500?

Maybe Johnson should have stayed home last week as he still lost a huge chunk of points thanks to finishing 129 laps off the pace for 33rd-place. The gaping chasm that was Johnson's lead is now just 73 points over his teammate, but it is unlikely that anyone can catch the No. 48 car with so few races left. Even with all the different scenarios that could play out Johnson is still the clear cut favorite to win the Chase. Therefore, if you have a futures investment in JJ don't rip up your ticket just yet. You can most likely bank on the fact that the Chase will have been won by Johnson on Sunday night. However, that doesn't mean you can't still earn a bit of cheese investing in Sunday afternoon motorsports.

To start with there are a few Chase drivers I advise laying off this Sunday; Ryan Newman (30/1), Juan Pablo Montoya (12/1) and Kasey Kahne (25/1). Newman is ninth in the Chase and 324 points out. Newman's had a terrible Chase and lost a spot in the standings after his 12th-place finish last week at Texas; which is amazing if you consider how poorly the Stewart-Haas Chevrolet handled. Newman has an average finish of 22.9 and you have to go all the way back to 2004 for his best finish; a second place at PRI. Kahne is only slightly better at PRI with an average finish of 19.5 and, coincidently, his best finish at Phoenix was in 2004 when he finished fifth. JPM has never finished inside the Top 10 at Phoenix, sports a 21.8 average finish at PIR and on intermediate tracks in general (maybe he gets bored?) and generally doesn't do that well on intermediate tracks. 

This Sunday I see Martin building on last week's 111 point windfall thanks to (Sam Hornish, Jr. who knocked out Johnson in the third lap) teammate Johnson finishing 33rd place at Talladega. Now only 73 points stand between Martin and Johnson with two races remaining in the Chase. And while the Chase has tightened up the reality is that there are only two races left and one of the tracks is counted as Johnson's best; PIR. Johnson will have to finish 18th-place or worse while Martin would have to win on Sunday for the Chase to come down to one race and in all likelihood won't happen. But after what happened at 'Dega you never know. 

Martin has the second best average finish of all Chase drivers at 9.0 on 25 starts. Martin brings a lot of experience into Phoenix and that should work in his favor. From 1992-2000 Martin finished every race at Phoenix in the Top 10. Even more impressive is that he managed to notch one win, five second-place and two sixth-place finishes within that time span. Martin will need every bit of that experience to out-duel Johnson on Sunday. I'm betting on the No. 5 car and a season sweep at PIR. 

Pick! Mark Martin, No.5 (5/1)

2009 Checker Auto Parts 500 - Lucky Dog Long Odds Special

When the command to start your engines comes on Sunday Richard Childress Racings' Kevin Harvick will look to showcase his talents for 2010 and try to grab some owners points in the process. And Phoenix is a great showcase for Harvick who is coming of a solid fifth-place performance last week at the Dickies' 500. In 2006 Harvick swept Phoenix and has three top-fives and six top-tens and has no DNFs. Oh yes and there is one other reason why I like Harvick as my Lucky Dog this week. In the truck series Harvick has won three of the past four starts (check to see how he does on Friday night - he has a good chance to win that race as well). These are good enough reasons for me to make Harvick this week's Long Odds special.

Pick! Kevin Harvick, No. 29 (20/1)

2009 Checker Auto Parts 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

The hallmark of Johnson's career has been how well Hendrick Motorsports and Crew Cheif Chad Knaus handle adversity. On the heels of his worst race in recent memory Johnson comes to friendly Phoenix where he has won three of the last four and finished in the top-five in the last five consecutive races. Johnson leads all active drivers with an average finish of 5.4 on 12 starts. Most 'experts' have Johnson tabbed to win on Sunday but for my V-Chips a top-three finish for Johnson is as close to a lock as you'll get when you invest in motor-sports. It is a no brainer.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, (6/5)

Sprint Cup Series- Checker Auto Parts 500 Odds for Top 3 Finish

Sun, Nov. 15, 2:30 p.m. Phoenix International Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1 
Bobby Labonte 30/1 
Brad Keselowski 30/1 
Brian Vickers 22/1 
Carl Edwards 9/2 
Casey Mears 30/1 
Clint Bowyer 6/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 6/1 
David Gilliland 30/1 
David Ragan 18/1 
David Reutimann 18/1 
Denny Hamlin 12/5 
Elliott Sadler 30/1 
Greg Biffle 6/1 
Jamie McMurray 18/1 
Jeff Burton 15/1 
Jeff Gordon 3/1 
Jimmie Johnson 6/5 
Joey Logano 15/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 7/2 
Kasey Kahne 15/2 
Kevin Harvick 6/1 
Kurt Busch 10/3 
Kyle Busch 7/2 
Marcos Ambrose 30/1 
Mark Martin 3/2 
Martin Truex Jr. 15/1 
Matt Kenseth 15/2 
Michael Waltrip 30/1 
Reed Sorenson 30/1 
Ryan Newman 9/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1 
Tony Stewart 12/5 
Field (Any Other Driver) 15/1 

Sprint Cup Series Checker Auto Parts 500 Odds to win 

Sun, Nov. 15, 2:30 p.m. Phoenix International Speedway

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1 
Bobby Labonte 100/1 
Brad Keselowski 100/1 
Brian Vickers 75/1 
Carl Edwards 15/1 
Casey Mears 100/1 
Clint Bowyer 20/1 
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 20/1 
David Gilliland 100/1 
David Ragan 60/1 
David Reutimann 60/1 
Denny Hamlin 8/1 
Elliott Sadler 100/1 
Greg Biffle 20/1 
Jamie McMurray 60/1 
Jeff Burton 50/1 
Jeff Gordon 10/1 
Jimmie Johnson 4/1 
Joey Logano 50/1 
Juan Pablo Montoya 12/1 
Kasey Kahne 25/1 
Kevin Harvick 20/1 
Kurt Busch 11/1 
Kyle Busch 12/1 
Marcos Ambrose 100/1 
Mark Martin 5/1 
Martin Truex Jr. 50/1 
Matt Kenseth 25/1 
Michael Waltrip 100/1 
Reed Sorenson 100/1 
Ryan Newman 30/1 
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1 
Tony Stewart 8/1 
Field (Any Other Driver) 50/1 

*Odds courtesy of Bodog