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Mine That Bird

Last race: Mine That Bird looked as good as you can in a loss when he was a hard-closing second in the Preakness. He took his signature spot at the back of the pack out of the gate. As he went to make his move the rail was locked up tight, so he was forced to go wide. He ran into a wall of horses and was forced to check. With remarkable maturity, he checked and recovered quickly. He made a hard charge down the stretch and was within a length of Rachel Alexandra at the wire. A bit more distance - like the Derby distance - and the result would almost certainly have been reversed.

Career highlights: By now we probably all know this story. The horse came from nowhere to become the second longest shot to ever win the Kentucky Derby. He did it by unleashing an impossible last-to-first move straight up the rail. It was incredible, and totally unpredictable. He'd been on a wild ride before that race. He started his career in Canada where he was named top two year old in the country. He was sold before the Breeders' Cup and promptly finished last in the Juvenile for his new owners. He started this year with two underwhelming performances at lightly-regarded Sunland Park. That made it really seem like last year was a fluke, and that he stood no chance in the Derby. Oops.

Jockey: Calvin Borel. Maybe. I'm guessing it will be Borel, but we won't know for sure until Rachel Alexandra's plans are announced. Borel will ride her if she is in, but I don't suspect she will be. If not, then Borel is almost certain to return to Mine That Bird. That would give him the chance to become the first jockey since 1978 to win all three Triple Crown races in the same year. He's already the first jockey to win the Derby and then ride another horse in the next race. Borel is ridiculously hot right now, winning virtually everything he gets on. If the filly does enter the Belmont then it's hard to know who will get the mount, but it won't be hard to get a jockey to say yes.

Trainer: Chip Woolley. This is the ultimate Cinderella story. Woolley had just one win this year before the Derby. He had never before entered a horse in a graded stakes race. He normally exercises his own hores, but a broken leg forced him out of the saddle this year. There is absolutely no way that he should have been able to do what he has done, but his horse has been perfectly prepared and his jockeys have had perfect game plans.

Pedigree: Mine That Bird is a son of Birdstone, the longshot winner of the Belmont in 2004. This is his first crop of three year olds, and it hints at a bright future at stud. Birdstone was sired by Grindstone, the winner of the 1996 Derby. Mine That Bird's dam was sired by Smart Strike. He's an impressive sire, with hghlights including sons Curlin and English Channel. Mine That Bird certainly has the capability to handle the distance.

Running style: If you don't know this then you haven't been paying attention. This little gelding sits impossibly far behind the leaders before unleashing one massive charge late in the race to get to the lead. If he handles the surface at Belmont then the race could set up well for him - the stretch is long and wide, so he will have lots of room to move.

Belmont prognosis: Whether Rachel Alexandra is in the field or not, I think that this is the Belmont winner. I'm a bit concerned by the workload he has faced as I am anytime a horse has run in all three Triple Crown races, but this horse is very fit, well prepared, and easy on himself. He's got incredible heart, and obvious class. There will be little value in betting him to win if the filly isn't in the race, but I'll be looking to squeeze as much return as I can by using him creatively in both intra-race and inter-race exotics. I was a big believer in this horse going into the Preakness, and his effort there only strengthened that belief.