It was three days before Thanksgiving in 2007. I'm sitting in Hartsfield-Jackson Airport in Atlanta, doing an interview with a writer for Covers.com about the upcoming college basketball season when I let it slip out.

"You know who I really like this year: Miami and Baylor. I think those teams are going to be really, really good."

Now, I don't try to go out of my way to kiss my own ass about my college basketball acumen. But I am confident that every Thanksgiving I can give you a list of 20 teams and 18 of them are going to finish the year with winning records against the spread. Bank it. And the most likely scenario is that most of these teams are obscure up-and-comers that I have a strong gut feeling about. Enter, Miami and Baylor. And I let the cat out of the bag on my secret crush on these teams last year, and then sat back and watched as they both had "surprising" seasons and made the NCAA Tournament. Miami posted a stellar 17-7-3 ATS mark while Baylor started out 12-8 ATS before closing out a 1-3 slide.

Let's flash forward a year. It's now fall 2008 and any square with a Lindy's is ready to get on Miami and Baylor as their "sleeper" picks in the ACC and Big 12, respectively. But there is the issue - once the cat is out of the bag it's tough to get it back in there.

To the untrained eye, Miami and Baylor have had successful seasons up to this point. Both have spent a majority of the year in the Top 25. Miami is 14-5 while Baylor is sitting pretty at 15-4. They score points, they win at home, and they are hanging around on the coattails of their Power Conference's reputation. But as I look a bit deeper at how each of these teams are playing I have to say that I'm very wary of their long-term prospects and that both clubs are about 15 months past the peak of their value.

Miami has lost two of its last three games - including a tough overtime L against surging Virginia Tech on Sunday - and they are just 2-4 against the spread over their last six games. Further, if you look back at their schedule it's a bit hard to find many quality wins on their schedule.

Their best victory was at No. 24 Kentucky back in December. However, that was a completely different Wildcats team and I have a feeling that if they had a rematch right now it would go quite differently. After that the highest rated teams that they have beaten are Florida State (No. 58), Maryland (No. 71) and Boston College (No. 79) and I think it's safe to say that FSU is really the only tournament threat in that group. In fact, the Hurricanes are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus against teams in the Top 65 this year. Not that impressive from a team that was supposed to compete for an ACC title.

The main problem with Miami is that any guards they have that aren't named "McClinton" are feeble. They also have just one forward averaging over seven points per game and their defense is lacking the shot blocking presence that they had last year in what Anthony King and Ray Hicks brought to the table. It also doesn't help that the ACC is stronger, top to bottom, than it has been in about five years.

Baylor's resume is even less impressive. The Bears are a team that I, personally, was still very high on coming into the season due to the sheer depth of their backcourt. But much like Miami something has been missing and this is a team that just hasn't lived up to the hype.

Baylor is just 3-3 in its last six games and is a feeble 1-5 ATS in those outings. And that includes a 19-point blowout loss at Oklahoma in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score indicates. Also, much like the Hurricanes, as I look through Baylor's conquests this year I see some decent wins but nothing that would indicate that they are capable of playing on the elite level that many had expected. And like Miami, they have one marquee win - a neutral court victory over No. 14 Arizona State - and a few powder puff Ws to go with it. Washington State (No. 57), Oklahoma State (No. 34) and Kansas State (No. 45) all have cute power ratings, but in reality the only dancing any of them will be doing this March will be in one of the lesser tournaments. Overall, the Bears are just 3-4 ATS against the Top 65.

This team is playing absolutely zero defense. They are ranked No. 217 in the country in points allowed and they have yielded 84 points or more in four of their last six outings.

One of the main problems that I see with the Bears is in their rotation. But they have two seven-footers on the roster in Mamadou Diene and Josh Lomers that coach Scott Drew simply isn't utilizing. Diene is a senior that has seen his minutes dwindle from 19 as a sophomore to 17 as a junior and now just 10.5 mpg. Lomers has seen a similar decline. The junior played an average of 12 minutes per game each of his first two seasons but now is getting just eight minutes of burn per evening. So Baylor has gone from having a seven-footer in the middle for about 30 minutes per game to around 18. That lack of presence underneath is resulting in a weaker defense and a softer all-around squad.

It's not too late for either one of these teams to get their act together. However, I would be wary of making any major moves on either of these teams until they prove that they can handle themselves against top-flight competition. And in the words of the great warrior-poet Flavor Flav, "Don't believe the Hype."