Matt Kenseth follows-up his rain-shortened win at the Daytona 500 set at 9/1 to win this week in California as NASCAR heads west for the Auto Club 500 on Sunday at 6:15 p.m. at the Auto Club Speedway in Fontana.

While the Daytona 500 is known as the "Great American Race" the Chase for the Championship really starts this week in California where racing well can, and usually does, translate into success later in the season. In fact, the two-mile D-oval that is Auto Club Speedway is seen by some prognosticators as indicative of how a team and/or driver will do for 26 of the 36 races. Look no further than last February and you'll see that the top-five finishers at California eventually went on to compete in the Chase.

Who will win the Auto Club 500?

Gamblers in need of an edge when it comes to investing in the Auto Club 500 should look no further than two teams; Hendrick Motorsports and Rousch Fenway Racing. Combined the two teams have won 10 of the last 12 spring races in California and have won the past two fall races. Carl Edwards, an intermediate superspeedway specialist, is the defending champion (Jimmie Johnson came in second) and Johnson won the fall race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. had an awful Daytona 500. First he was penalized one lap for overshooting his pit and then he caused a 10-car wreck, finishing 27th. Junior's fortunes look to get no better at Fontana as he hasn't had good luck in California. In fact fan-favorite Earnhardt Jr. has started 14 races at Fontana and only has three top-fives and four top-10s with an average finish of 20.6. Even though he's with a proven winner in HMS, I don't see California as the track he'll redeem himself. Junior's last two times at the Auto Club 500 he has finished no better than 40th. I think he'll be concentrating on running a clean race this week and finishing in the middle of the pack.

Certainly Kyle Busch (7/5) has to be bummed out about his DNF at Daytona after leading the race for 88 laps and having one of the best cars on the track before getting wrecked. Even so, it was good enough for 50 points, a mere 140 points behind current points' leader Kenseth. Coming into California the No. 18 car looks like it will be as hard to beat as it was for the first half of the 2008 season. There is no doubt Busch does well in California with one win three top-fives, and seven top-10s. Busch comes in third behind Johnson and Edwards with a 9.9 average finish, but in the past seven races at California, Busch has an even better average finish of sixth.

For my money, however, I am backing last year's champion and the intermediate superspeedway demon, "Concrete" Carl Edwards. There is good reason Edwards has been installed as one of the race's favorites. Consider that last year seven of his nine wins came on tracks 1.5-2 miles long. Edwards has won his last three races on intermediate tracks and in nine starts at Auto Club he has eight finishes of sixth place or better. Edwards sports one win and six top-five finishes in California and ranks second among current drivers with an average finish of 6.7. There is good reason why the public really likes Edwards to win on Sunday and for short odds who am I to back- flip against the wind?

Pick! Carl Edwards, No. 99. 4/1

2009 Auto Club 500 - Long Odds Special

Despite finishing 37th at Daytona, Jaime McMurray had one of the strongest cars on the track last Sunday. This bodes well for the Rousch Fenway Racing driver coming into California. RFR has been dominant at the Auto Club Speedway, winning six times and has notched 24 top-five and 34 top-10 finishes. McMurray has been the fifth driver at RFR and is looking to bust out of the spot. He finished last year very strong and is now reunited with his old Crew Chief Donnie Wingo. A win would go a long way to moving McMurray up from his fifth-wheel status. If you are looking for a long odds pick with win potential then McMurray is a great play to keep you interested though out the day and into the night.

Pick! Jaime McMurray, No. 26, (30/1)

Auto Club 500 - Odds for Top 3 Finish

I can't rely upon Johnson's performance at Daytona; he was still recovering from a cut finger! Johnson, who finished 31st at Daytona, is one of the top drivers on intermediate superspeedways and when it comes to handling the Car of Tomorrow. Indeed, Johnson seems better at driving the CoT than 90 percent of the drivers on the circuit. One thing that sets Johnson apart is the level of feedback on the car he gives Crew Chief Chad Knaus. And the results back this up. Johnson has been a monster closer at California with three wins and eight top-five finishes and an incredible 5.9 average finish. Bodog has set odds on which driver will finish the race within the top three spots; here's my pick.

Pick! Jimmie Johnson, No. 48, 9/2

Odds to finish in the Top 3 - Auto Club 500
Sunday, Feb 22 5 p.m. EST Auto Club Speedway, CA

A.J. Allmendinger 30/1
Aric Almirola 30/1
Bobby Labonte 30/1
Brian Vickers 15/2
Carl Edwards 23/20
Casey Mears 30/1
Clint Bowyer 10/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 17/4
Dave Blaney 30/1
David Gilliland 30/1
David Ragan 15/2
David Reutimann 30/1
David Starr 60/1
David Stremme 30/1
Denny Hamlin 11/2
Elliott Sadler 30/1
Greg Biffle 14/5
Jamie McMurray 9/1
Jeff Burton 10/1
Jeff Gordon 17/5
Jeremy Mayfield 60/1
Jimmie Johnson 5/4
Joe Nemechek 30/1
Joey Logano 18/1
John Andretti 30/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 24/1
Kasey Kahne 9/1
Kevin Harvick 9/1
Kurt Busch 9/1
Kyle Busch 7/5
Marcos Ambrose 30/1
Mark Martin 17/4
Martin Truex Jr. 10/1
Matt Kenseth 5/2
Michael Waltrip 30/1
Mike Garvey60/1
Paul Menard 30/1
Reed Sorenson 30/1
Robby Gordon 30/1
Ryan Newman 18/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 30/1
Scott Riggs 30/1
Scott Speed 30/1
Sterling Marlin 30/1
Todd Bodine 30/1
Tony Raines 30/1
Tony Stewart 11/2
Travis Kvapil 30/1

2009 Auto Club 500 - Odds to Win
Sun, Feb 22, 5 p.m. EST Auto Club Speedway, CA

A.J. Allmendinger 100/1
Aric Almirola 100/1
Bobby Labonte 100/1
Brian Vickers 25/1
Carl Edwards 4/1
Casey Mears 100/1
Clint Bowyer 35/1
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 15/1
Dave Blaney 100/1
David Gilliland 100/1
David Ragan 25/1
David Reutimann 100/1
David Starr 200/1
David Stremme 100/1
Denny Hamlin 18/1
Elliott Sadler 100/1
Greg Biffle 10/1
Jamie McMurray 30/1
Jeff Burton 35/1
Jeff Gordon 12/1
Jeremy Mayfield 200/1
Jimmie Johnson 9/2
Joe Nemechek 100/1
Joey Logano 60/1
John Andretti 100/1
Juan Pablo Montoya 80/1
Kasey Kahne 30/1
Kevin Harvick 30/1
Kurt Busch 30/1
Kyle Busch 5/1
Marcos Ambrose 100/1
Mark Martin 15/1
Martin Truex Jr. 35/1
Matt Kenseth 9/1
Michael Waltrip 100/1
Mike Garvey200/1
Paul Menard 100/1
Reed Sorenson 100/1
Robby Gordon 100/1
Ryan Newman 60/1
Sam Hornish Jr. 100/1
Scott Riggs 100/1
Scott Speed100/1
Sterling Marlin 100/1
Todd Bodine 100/1
Tony Raines 100/1
Tony Stewart 20/1
Travis Kvapil 100/1

*Odds courtesy of Bodog