It's not that bold or brave to say it now, but when a lot of people were outraged that Arizona made the NCAA Tournament in place of St. Mary's I just wasn't buying it. Nothing against St. Mary's, but Arizona is a far more talented team that played a tougher schedule, overcame more adversity, and had bigger wins. Given that they are one of the 16 teams that survived the first week, it's not hard to believe that Arizona did actually belong. But are they a fluke, or do they stand a real chance of going even deeper? Let's look at that question in two parts - the team itself, and how it matches up against its next opponent - Louisville.

Talent - If we have learned anything the last few years it is that teams need a lot of NBA-quality talent to go all the way these days. On that front Arizona certainly holds up with the best of the rest. Jordan Hill is a likely Top-5 pick this year. Chase Budinger could end up in the lottery, and is almost certain to find his way into the first round. Nic Wise will likely return for another year, but he'll get drafted when he comes out, and could easily play his way into the first round. This team hasn't always played to their potential, but those three players are as good as any top three left in the tourney. The problem is their depth - those three players combine to average 52 points per game. The other nine active players on the roster average only 20, and no one averages as many as seven points.

Coaching mess - To succeed in the tournament a team has to be tough. If this team isn't tough now then they will never be. Their last two years have seen one of the most ridiculous coaching dramas we've seen in college sports. Lute Olson took the year off last year under circumstances that were convoluted and hidden in lies and half-truths. He's was replaced by Kevin O'Neill, the former NBA head coach that was an Arizona assistant with a written agreement that he would take over the team when Olson retired. After a rocky year, Olson returned and promptly had O'Neill fired. Olson's health caused him to resign for good right before this season. Assistant coach Mike Dunlap was offered the job, but he wasn't interested in being an interim choice. Instead, assistant Russ Pennell took the head job even though he had only been with the team for six months and had previously been a broadcaster for Arizona State. Pennell has done a decent job, but he's had to struggle all year with two handicaps - Dunlap has been right there on the sideline with him, and everyone around the team and the sport know that Pennell has no job security. Through all of that, the team played well enough to make the tournament. They should have done better given their talent, but they could have done a whole lot worse given their circumstances.

Tradition - This is the 25th consecutive year that the Wildcats have been in the tournament. That's by far the longest current streak. That kind of history really means something to a program, and is a good part of the reason why this is a school that often seems to play better than they should.

Where they were - In non-conference play these guys beat some solid tournament teams - Texas A&M, Kansas, and Gonzaga. In the Pac-10 they beat Washington, UCLA, and USC. In short, this is not a bad team. They slumped badly down the stretch, losing five of their last six, to throw their tournament prospects into question. Before that, though, they were 18-8, 8-5 in a decent conference, and they wouldn't have looked out of place at all as a No. 6 or No. 7 seed. In the end they were lucky to get in, but just because the bracket says they are a No. 12, don't make the mistake of thinking of them as a No. 12.

How they match up against Louisville - Jordan Hill is Arizona's best player, and one of the best of the many impressive big men still playing. When Louisville plays an effective big man, Samardo Samuels has a habit of disappearing. Samuels isn't the driving force of the team, but he has played very well in the tournament, and he would be missed if he has an off game. Arizona will have to force Samuels off his game. They'll also have to actively and aggressively rebound, because no team is more brutally effective on the offensive glass than Louisville. Arizona doesn't match up well on depth - Louisville can comfortably go nine or 10 deep, while Arizona doesn't have that luxury. Arizona will also have to find a way to limit Louisville's dribble penetration without giving up fouls. If any of Arizona's big three get into early foul trouble then this thing is over before it starts. Put that all together, and you have a tall task for Arizona. That's not to say that they can't pull off the upset by any means. To do so, though, they have to play the best game they can possibly play, and they have to make Louisville as uncomfortable as they possibly can. There is some good news - Arizona has played perhaps their two best games of the year in the tournament, so near-perfection is possible here.